UAL announces Yr. 2005 Recalls

[Smmmack]

Any updates on the by-pass rate?

 

[Big Beer Belly]

WOW! I got hired years before you at another carrier (UPS)... but was offered an interview mid 90's at UAL and SWA and declined them both after careful consideration and study of the profession. At the time, I came to the conclusion that UAL was in SERIOUS financial duress as evidenced by the ESOP and Wall St's REFUSAL to lend them any $. I had very little desire to be stuck on a 737 and 8 legs a day for the foreseeable future (at SWA), so I stuck with what I considered my "best bet" and it has worked out very well for me.

I'm curious how you obviously arrived at a wholly different conclusion about UAL's future? What evidence (other than they were hiring) did you discover that the corporation was financially sound? In previous Q& A sessions with former UAL furloughees, I've found that very little to no research was done on UAL prior to their "betting their career" decision. That simply blows me away. I'm confused how one could do no research prior to "betting their career", and then have the audacity to complain when the inevitable economic downturn (well prior to 9-11 ) resulted in their furlough. I'm not reveling in your furlough by any means, just surprised that you didn't see it coming like the rest of us. What made you put the blinders on? I truly wish you the best, but am perplexed and mildly annoyed that you apparently did no research prior to making a career decision for you and your family.

My gut reaction is ... if you wish to gamble with your future, fine ... but you then have no right to legitimately complain when your OBVIOUS GAMBLE doesn't pay off. I have the same feelings about JetBlue and Airtran. Best wishes ... but no empirical evidence suggests they will last. If you choose to pursue one of these companies ... great ... but don't bitch in a few years when your very risky gamble doesn't pay off. Both of these companies are BARELY "eeking"out a profit and have about the equivalent of 45 days of UPS profit as TOTAL cash on hand for their ENTIRE future. I guess I'm more conservative when it comes to my beer money! Good luck ... but just because a company is hiring doesn't mean they are financially healthy ... I'm SHOCKED I need to point out the OBVIOUS!

BBB

 

[Green]

Big Beer Belly,

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Ual had several very profitable years in the late 90's. Who could have known that the worst aviation downturn in history was about to occur and that Dal, Amr, US Airways, NWA, Ual, etc would be furloughing thousands? Hindsight is 20/20.

Not everybody gets the opportunity to work for Ups or Fedex and sometimes you have to take the best opportunity offered to you and go with it. You do make some astute observations but your post comes across as more than just a little condescending. I'm sure you've never picked a bad stock or mutual fund because, of course, you did your research. I would also imagine that you bought a nice house or two in Orange County years ago because your research told you housing prices would explode in that part of the country and you would stand to make milions. Surely the name "Big Beer Belly" is all in jest because you wouldn't want to gamble your career and family's financial future with the risk of a medical retirement. It's just all so simple...

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Big Beer Belly,

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Ual had several very profitable years in the late 90's. Who could have known that the worst aviation downturn in history was about to occur and that Dal, Amr, US Airways, NWA, Ual, etc would be furloughing thousands? Hindsight is 20/20.

Not everybody gets the opportunity to work for Ups or Fedex and sometimes you have to take the best opportunity offered to you and go with it. You do make some astute observations but your post comes across as more than just a little condescending. I'm sure you've never picked a bad stock or mutual fund because, of course, you did your research. I would also imagine that you bought a nice house or two in Orange County years ago because your research told you housing prices would explode in that part of the country and you would stand to make milions. Surely the name "Big Beer Belly" is all in jest because you wouldn't want to gamble your career and family's financial future with the risk of a medical retirement. It's just all so simple...

Now that you mention it ... why yes I did purchase a home in San Diego (Not Orange County ... tisk, tisk ... <g>) and yes I have profited about $100,000 per year for going on 7 years now. It was a no-brainer at the time! My research still tells me coastal property will continue to appreciate significantly ahead of inflation for several decades. My same research has helped me profit with global natural resource funds and developing markets, FWIW (about a 40% return last year!) <g>

As far as the beer belly ... well, you might have guessed that's just a joke. Benched 400 the day before yesterday, BTW. Yes, I do work out 4-5 days/wk to maintain my health for my sake and that of my family ... again, not one to gamble with such big stakes.

You need to do your research regarding the airline industry. I PREDICTED the implosion of UAL based on their balance sheet back in the mid 90's. Have you researched why the ESOP came about? It was not a choice. It was either the employees bend over or there will be massive cuts. The profitability in the late 90's was due to the surging economy as a whole, not due to UAL's brilliant ESOP strategy. I (and many airline analysts) said the same at the time. Apparently you either didn't do your research or you did not like what you read. Either way, your bad.

I see the same occurring today with JetBlue and Airtran. Because they're hiring, many uninformed pilots are all hyped up about them and trying to get a job. Goodie for them. IMHO, they will be the future grumbling furloughees on this board. I simply look at their balance sheets (pretty darn sad) and their forward guidance and arrive at the conclusion that their prosperity is a gamble (at best). Obviously others disagree with my assessment. As they say, time will tell.

Good luck with your career!

BBB

 

[FutureTEDpilot]

Dude!

Give me a break!

I'll bet you wanted to fly the C-141 as well?


The Airforce was my THIRD Choice, and C-141's would have been my LAST choice as well..but who really gives a flying rat's arse? I am happy everything worked out for you at UPS! Why is it I had several classmates from Big Brown? I guess they were stupid like me as well?

Go back to benching 400LBS and counting your real estate money!!!

Dumb UAL Pilot

 

[Jetjockey]

Wow, BBB sounds nearly perfect..................I bet nothing will ever go wrong in his life.

According to my research, his perfection is something we can all admire.

 

[psysicx]

Beer belly do you commute to ONT from SAN?

 

[Big Beer Belly]

I'll bet you wanted to fly the C-141 as well?


The Airforce was my THIRD Choice, and C-141's would have been my LAST choice as well..but who really gives a flying rat's arse?

After the AF changed to a 5 year assignment ... 141's became my first choice. DO went off base to get plane/base for me ... mighty nice. 70 countries later, can't say as I am disappointed with my taste (get it?) of the world. To each his own. I'm a big believer in taking responsibility for one's life. Many of my friends from college just seemed to stumble from one job/girlfriend to another with no flight plan. Can't live like that ... gotta have some idea what the forecast looks like ahead ... to me that has translated into doing some research into prospective employers and actually mapping a strategy, versus just falling into the first one to hire me rhythm.

If your plan has worked out for you, great. But, to those who have stumbled along and bumped into wall after wall because they failed to do any research and simply took job after job from whomever was hiring at the time .... and now moan about their fifth furlough ... well ......

 

[Green]

Big Beer Belly,

Wow that's great, you sure are on top of everything. Next you'll be trying to convince us that the babe in your avatar is your wife. No wonder you can bench 400lbs...

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Next you'll be trying to convince us that the babe in your avatar is your wife.

Babe? LOL! Uh ... that's Mike Myers ... maybe you've been out to sea too long sailor! You Navy guys!

BBB

 

[Jetjockey]

If your plan has worked out for you, great. But, to those who have stumbled along and bumped into wall after wall because they failed to do any research and simply took job after job from whomever was hiring at the time .... and now moan about their fifth furlough ... well ......

You sir are incorrect. I'm on my third furlough. The first two were courtesy of Midwest Express. At the time (2000) they were as stable as any air carrier. Thier balance sheet was solid, income was good. A long string of quartley profits.etc. etc.. I did my research, and made the best descision with the information available at the time. Did it prevent the downturn? No. You come across like you knew all along that every passenger airline would suffer this incredible downturn. If that were true, you'd be rich since you would have shorted every legacy carrier on the market! You know, your crystal ball with the real estate market.

The point is, bad things still happen to good people.....no matter how well they plan. You come across very arrogant, and may the lord have mercy on your perfect world if /when the "**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** hits the fan" in the eutopia of the cargo carriers.

 

[Big Beer Belly]

You come across very arrogant, and may the lord have mercy on your perfect world if /when the

The lord huh? Would that be the same "lord" looking out for the thousands of little children being raped by your gay priests? <ng>

 

[Jetjockey]

On to offending religion now? No wonder you moved to so many countries during your career..........no one could stand you for too long I'm sure. I bet you made our country proud with your "typical arrogance".

 

[Big Beer Belly]

On to offending religion now?

Typical ... bury your head in the sand. Hey buddy boy, I'm just the messenger. Thousands of innocent children preyed upon by catholic priests and all you can do is attack the messenger! Wow ... you're a real beacon of light pal. Not a word of condemnation for the disgusting act ... just a silent defense of their despicable crimes.

 

[Jetjockey]

Are we talking about your arrogance, or pedophila? I condemn both.

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Are we talking about your arrogance, or pedophila? I condemn both.

I'm just musing about an all-knowing and all-powerful god that gets his jollies watching little kids be raped by men representing his "holiness". I'm confused why "god" would allow this (and many other atrocities)? Why would one possibly believe in such a deviant being knowing he will not intercede to prevent tragedy?

 

[UPSFO]

What a buffoon! Anyone who takes this guy serious lacks judgement or self-confidence.

I am thrilled to hear about the UAL callbacks. Many of us have been in your shoes and understand how difficult this has been on you and your families. Gloating over your demise is pretty pathetic! Trying to pass it off as "intelligent hindsight" is even worse!!

I won't continue, as doing so would be taking this moron serious.

 

[MCDU]

The religious folks here in the States are really starting to get on my nerves. They kind of remind me of the people we witness in the Arab world, where the word God is used all over the place. Time to move to Norway, Switzerland, Sweden etc, where people understand that God had its place in history, but not in a modern, civilized and educated society. Adam and EVE. Give me a break. Funny that the most peaceful countries in the world are the least religious.
By the way, who made God? Answer: We did.

Lets keep religious crap out of this forum. There is already to much of it on TV.

Marty

 

[bestpilot]

I'm just musing about an all-knowing and all-powerful god that gets his jollies watching little kids be raped by men representing his "holiness". I'm confused why "god" would allow this (and many other atrocities)? Why would one possibly believe in such a deviant being knowing he will not intercede to prevent tragedy?

Duuuude, that's like WAY bad Kharma, hey Big Beer Bellly Dude (love the Avatar, by the way), here's the thing, cause I'm right there with you about the Cathlic priest thing, but you want to like serve some God who like blasts you like everytime you make a mistake? Dude, I'm thinkin if the big Kahuna Dude Maximus upstairs didn't show us some mercy and stuff, then this whole entire Big Blue Marble (aka Earth), whould be like COMPLETELY empty.

I'm diggin this God of mercy stuff, but cmon, my brother from another mother, you're like sayin cause the peeps aint perfect, then God's not perfect, right? Duude, I'm not with you there man, not with you at all on that one. My Ma and Pops were pretty all knowing when a was a little tyke, but they let me do stuff, even though they like knew it would end up baaad (yeah Bro, I do mean BAAAD). Here's the thing, my man, I'm like glad they did (lookin back, cause at the time it like really suuuucked), cause that's how I learn, dude, that's how I learn.

Big Kahuna dude gives us this thing called Freewill (Rush sang about it, way cool alblum), I'm diggin that the Big Guy lets me use it, but sometimes I'm like a total IDIOT, and I'd be diggin it if the Big Dog started barkin at me to stop. Naw, Bro, if your implyin the Big God Guy in the sky aint real, then I cant be wit you on daht, naw man, I just cant. But I'm lovin all of you dudes out here, and wishin prosper to all the UAL peeps (I'm talkin the workin peeps, not the managin peeps). Peace out.

Big Beer Duude, I'm thinin maybe you need to take the edge off a little...BREWSKI?

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Gloating over your demise is pretty pathetic! Trying to pass it off as "intelligent hindsight" is even worse!!

Gloating? Hardly. More like reminding you of history. I came to the CONCLUSION in the early 90's, along with just about every financial analyst that covers aviation, that UAL was in serious financial circumstances. I was attempting to make the best career decision for me and my family. You need to put emotion aside and do some RESEARCH about the NECESSITY for the ESOP. Either the employees took PAY/PENSION CUTS (in exchange for an ESOP) or the airline would be FORCED to significantly restructure/downsize. You do recall UAL pilots took pay/pension cuts prior to this recent (post 9-11) downturn ... don't you? Or, would that be considered too much 20/20 hindsight?

Why would someone gamble their career at a financially unstable carrier who has just undergone a massive financial restructuring? (the ESOP!) This is the conclusion I arrived at more than a decade ago. Just about every major airline was hiring in the mid 90's, so it was not as if they were the only flying job in town. UAL, in my opinion, was a gamble based on their financial instability at the time.

For someone to later come along, fail to do any research, and then be shocked when UAL is one of the first to go bankrupt when the industry turns on its arse ... well, frankly it amazes me. This is not gloat. UAL's current financial condition can be traced back to their weak balance sheet pre- 9/11. If you monitor any of the financial publications that cover this industry you will read the same thing. Somehow, you confuse facts/history with gloat.