U.S. Airline Merger Predictions

[SteelerMan]

how exactly will Hillary be able to block an acquisition?

 

[Whine Lover]

Welll...her face could stop a train.


YKW

 

[FDJ2]

Sorry to rain on your parade. Here's a couple of poison pills JetBlue had already had in mind for any such acquisition. First, the space between the gates at JetBlue's new JFK terminal are too narrow for any widebody aircraft. Any structural changes would cost millions and would outweigh simple renovations at Delta's old JFK terminals. Second, and soon to be out on the press is new pilot contract language that would make any acquisition of JetBlue too costly, ie. 5 years pay to each pilot or $500,000 whichever is greater...Lastly, you have New York Senators and Congressmen who will block any acquisition of New York's hometown airline.

Thanks, I appreciate a good laugh in the morning.

Not to worry though. I very much doubt DAL wants to acquire all of JBLu, just certain assets. I'm not sure how strong your fragmentation language will be, and I doubt you do either, I guess you'll have to hope that management has your best interests in mind.

 

[The Victors]

swa buys airtrain. fall 2007.

 

[Howard Hughes]

Not waisting any time after "Open Skies" the "Globalization of ownership" begins....

Iberia receives takeover approach from ambitious Texas Pacific

Monday April 2, 2007
Considered to be a merger or acquisition target following approval of the EU-US open skies agreement, Iberia on Friday received a takeover approach from Texas Pacific Group, which values the Spanish flag carrier at about €3.4 billion ($4.53 billion).
"Iberia reports that it has received a request from TPG Capital LLP. . .for access to specific corporate, accounting, fiscal and legal information, with a view to the possible formulation of a public offer to buy all shares in the company at the price of €3.60 cash per share," IB said in a regulatory filing. TPG, also participating in bids for Qantas and Alitalia, agreed to analyze the information within 30 days of receipt and make its decision within another 10 days.

by Cathy Buyck

 

[Hpilot]

Delta is lucky to be a stand alone airline. They are in no position to make a bid for anyone. It is more likely that Jetblue would buy Delta than vice versa. Does the fact that Delta is still bankrupt mean anything to anyone? Woud Congress or lenders have confidence in the management at Delta to run a merged airline? No way.

There are not 6 legacies. There are only 5. US Air is really America West as they only kept the US Air name for marketing reasons when America West took them over.

Open Skies is going to kill you pax pilots, but it seems you all have your head in the sand. There are no foreign competition for FDX and UPS except for DHL. But there are plenty of foreign airlines that would operate a lot cheaper than US passenger carriers could. The principle lobbyists for Open Skies from the US side has been UPS and FDX to a lesser degree.

Delta a top customer of Boeing!!?? Not in this century.

Nobody knows the future, but basing a forecast on a guess is ridiculous. I think it is more likely for Delta to be back in bankruptcy and liquidated or acquired by the new US Air in the next couple of years than for them to be merged.

Delta being back in bankruptcy wouldn't surprise me. I don't think we'll be in any condition to aquire them though. If Parker doesn't work on combining the human element in this merger we're in for a world of hurt.

 

[Howard Hughes]

Why so bitter? Just trying to figure out why you are more sold on the prospects of US Airways and JB than Delta. From a business standpoint when considering routes, gates, debt, etc I believe your assessment may be flawed...but hey my crystal ball only sees 24 months at a time so what do I know

Also, dont be so sure regarding Fedex and UPS having the market to themselves. This Open Skies allows for alot of different things to happen in Pax AND Cargo hauling. One sure sign I know someone on here doesnt yet understand the flyin biz is when they think any part of it is a sure thing. Its been proven wrong so many times its funny in a sad way. And for the record several of the Legacy carrier leaderships were behind Open Skies all the way. I tend to think although not too bright at times they are at least sophisticated enough to see if this is good or bad for their respective airlines and the overwhelming conclusion based on growth and synergies was that Open Skies will provide a lot of oppertunity for those who are smart enough to capitalize on it.

PS- Delta will be out of BK in less than thirty days with one of the best balance sheets of all Legacy carriers and projections for healthy cash flows, revenue and profits. Over this last week load factors averaged 95% system wide. They seem to be doing something right.

Delta is lucky to be a stand alone airline. They are in no position to make a bid for anyone. It is more likely that Jetblue would buy Delta than vice versa. Does the fact that Delta is still bankrupt mean anything to anyone? Woud Congress or lenders have confidence in the management at Delta to run a merged airline? No way.

There are not 6 legacies. There are only 5. US Air is really America West as they only kept the US Air name for marketing reasons when America West took them over.

Open Skies is going to kill you pax pilots, but it seems you all have your head in the sand. There are no foreign competition for FDX and UPS except for DHL. But there are plenty of foreign airlines that would operate a lot cheaper than US passenger carriers could. The principle lobbyists for Open Skies from the US side has been UPS and FDX to a lesser degree.

Delta a top customer of Boeing!!?? Not in this century.

Nobody knows the future, but basing a forecast on a guess is ridiculous. I think it is more likely for Delta to be back in bankruptcy and liquidated or acquired by the new US Air in the next couple of years than for them to be merged.

 

[General Lee]

Delta being back in bankruptcy wouldn't surprise me. I don't think we'll be in any condition to aquire them though. If Parker doesn't work on combining the human element in this merger we're in for a world of hurt.

You guys will be back in BK before we will, for sure. Parker will make some decisions based on Martinis, and that will send you into the dumps for sure. He tried to consolidate, but instead found himself in the spotlight for a bad reason, and it will only get worse as things fall apart. DL and NW will eventually merge, and USAir will be a distant 4th as a legacy (behind UA/CAL, DL/NW, and AA).

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Hpilot]

I agree with you on the fact that US Airways has some serious obstacles ahead. Parker would have had a much better chance at acquiring NW, but he didn't want to mess with the pension obligations. Parker is very anti pension. I don't know if it's because of the industry volatility or if he's a fan of the current risk shift attitude in America.

You're a little over optimistic I think on Delta.

 

[L'il J.Seinfeld]

Actually, DAL is in an excellent position to purchase assets. DAL has one of the best balance sheets among the network carriers, $3.7B in cash, $2.7B unrestricted, one of the lowest CASMs among the legacy carriers and Wallstreet jumped all over itself to lend DAL exit financing.

However, I don't expect DAL to acquire any carriers in the near future. Perhaps an asset acquisition, but not an all out merger/acquisition.

Think about how incredibly absurd that statement is. The balance sheet does not mean everything. The Statement of Cash Flows and INcome statement are what matters. You can't be in a position to pay billions in cash for something when you've been bankrupt because you can't pay the bills. I hope Delta rebounds, but they are 3-5 years behind United and AMerican in reorgnanization efforts. If oil goes higher they could be going back to bankruptcy before they ever really exit.

 

[Howard Hughes]

You are showing a lack of knowledge on this subject. Delta's balance sheet will be superior to United's in thirty days. You better notify NWA that due to their lack of cash flows and income they will need to cancel their order for up to 70 787's. They have an obligation to come clean after slipping that one buy Boeing who didnt bother looking at the financials.

Think about how incredibly absurd that statement is. The balance sheet does not mean everything. The Statement of Cash Flows and INcome statement are what matters. You can't be in a position to pay billions in cash for something when you've been bankrupt because you can't pay the bills. I hope Delta rebounds, but they are 3-5 years behind United and AMerican in reorgnanization efforts. If oil goes higher they could be going back to bankruptcy before they ever really exit.

 

[gutshotdraw]

Delta, NWA, United...not holding my breath.

I'm waiting for the Aer Lingus-Continental merger.



Think about it.......badump bump







Oh, come on. Lighten up!

 

[vetrider]

I'd say if anyone knows it would be Howard Hughes. After all he is a billionare and actually ran TWA at one point. What are the rest of us, just pilots, pshaw.

 

[Howard Hughes]

Thanks V, I dont stay on top of the industry like in the good ol days but I know a thing or two. The hardest thing now is typing with these dang nails....maybe ill have them trimmed:laugh:

I'd say if anyone knows it would be Howard Hughes. After all he is a billionare and actually ran TWA at one point. What are the rest of us, just pilots, pshaw.

 

[jetflier]

Welll...her face could stop a train.


YKW

PRICELESS !!!!

 

[PowerRanger]

I'd say if anyone knows it would be Howard Hughes. After all he is a billionare and actually ran TWA at one point. What are the rest of us, just pilots, pshaw.

"Bring in the milk, bring in the milk, bring in the milk."

"Wave of the future, the future, the future, the future...."

 

[Howard Hughes]

"Bring in the milk, bring in the milk, bring in the milk."

"Wave of the future, the future, the future, the future...."

Hold the arm at a 45 degree angle.......Q-U-A-R-A-N-T-I-N-E

 

[L'il J.Seinfeld]

Why so bitter? Just trying to figure out why you are more sold on the prospects of US Airways and JB than Delta. From a business standpoint when considering routes, gates, debt, etc I believe your assessment may be flawed...but hey my crystal ball only sees 24 months at a time so what do I know

Also, dont be so sure regarding Fedex and UPS having the market to themselves. This Open Skies allows for alot of different things to happen in Pax AND Cargo hauling. One sure sign I know someone on here doesnt yet understand the flyin biz is when they think any part of it is a sure thing. Its been proven wrong so many times its funny in a sad way. And for the record several of the Legacy carrier leaderships were behind Open Skies all the way. I tend to think although not too bright at times they are at least sophisticated enough to see if this is good or bad for their respective airlines and the overwhelming conclusion based on growth and synergies was that Open Skies will provide a lot of oppertunity for those who are smart enough to capitalize on it.

PS- Delta will be out of BK in less than thirty days with one of the best balance sheets of all Legacy carriers and projections for healthy cash flows, revenue and profits. Over this last week load factors averaged 95% system wide. They seem to be doing something right.

UPS, FDX, and DHL are set to reign in many more years of unimaginable profits--there, I said it. They are not airlines, even FDX, but rather are global providers of logistics services. It's apples and oranges. Nothing is a sure thing, but it doesn't get much more certain than these companies right now. I readily admit I do not understand the flying biz, as you put it. I do understand business though. And Delta, unfortunately, is a terribly weak company coming out of bankruptcy. This is a mgt team that has lost a collective15.1 billion in the last 36 months. A turd is a turd. Don't be fooled by the press releases touting their future.

 

[AA717driver]

AA and BA have been trying to arrange "a closer relationship" for the past decade. Open Skies will do nothing to slow that down.

If there is "a closer relationship", it might allow more weight to be brought to bear when it comes to getting Asia routes.

I still think the ultimate goal is for the OneWorld carriers to virtually merge.

AA, BA, CX... TC

 

[catIIIc]

AA and BA have been trying to arrange "a closer relationship" for the past decade. Open Skies will do nothing to slow that down.

If there is "a closer relationship", it might allow more weight to be brought to bear when it comes to getting Asia routes.

I still think the ultimate goal is for the OneWorld carriers to virtually merge.

AA, BA, CX... TC

One World: AA, BA, CX
Skyteam: DL/NW, AF/KLM
Star: UA/CAL, LH