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U.S. Airline Merger Predictions

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In regards to DAL buying NWA, here's another spin.

NWA buys DAL, protecting the 5th freedom rights and the golden share at CAL. NWA will buy DAL.

This maintains the golden share at CAL and 5th rights. Anderson is moved to the board at DAL to "learn" the operation prior to merger (or I should say acquisition). UAL will buy CAL after paying NWA a hefty fee. Think VERY HEFTY. We win on both ends of the deal and use the proceeds from CAL to close the DAL deal. DAL exits Chap 11 1st to allow a "holding company" to acquire shares of DAL quitely before we exit. Continental stock will be in play as soon as any merger news hits the wires. Started to climb today the the AirTran/Midwest proposal. CAL has a $10/share upside as evidenced the the last round of merger talks. Deals will close next year.
 
Section 4: Master Alliance Agreement

iii Additional Termination Rights

(a) In the event of a NW Change of Control, each of CO and NW shall have the right to terminate the Master Alliance Agreement on 6 months' prior written notice, without liability or penalty to the other party.


(d) For purposes of this term sheet, a "Change of Control" with respect to either NW or CO shall mean any merger, reorganization, share exchange, consolidation, business combination, recapitalization, liquidation, dissolution or similar transaction involving NW or CO, or any sale or disposition of all or substantially all of NW's or CO's airline assets on a consolidated basis, involving, or the acquisition of beneficial ownership of 25% or more of the equity securities or voting power of NW or CO by, a third-party air carrier or carriers with annual passenger revenues in any such carrier's most recently completed fiscal year in excess of $1 billion, or an affiliate of any such third-party air carrier(s), or the execution of definitive agreements in respect of any such transaction.
 
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(d) For purposes of this term sheet, a "Change of Control" with respect to either NW or CO shall mean any merger, reorganization, share exchange, consolidation, business combination, recapitalization, liquidation, dissolution or similar transaction involving NW or CO,

I believe this has been covered before - CH11 reorganization is not what is referred to, but a change in the corporate structure of the company that results in a substantially different entity than before such reorganization. Don't take my word for it - this is a BK attorney question. Occam might have some insight on this?
 

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