You look at first year pay, but have you considered 4th year pay as a captain at CAL? Or maybe you just want to sit on the 777 at $99 an hour at that point (if I remember right). It's not even a long shot, and since it appears your decision is monetarily based, you would have looked at this, no? It really negates the 1st year pay in the decision making process you used in your post.
If you're wanting to go to UAL, uh...you're going to start at low pay rates, too, and their contract is up in '09, merger talks are dying down but they are in a rough spot to come in as a newhire. By the time you were hired there, it is likely to be 6 months to a year from now anyway....time you could have been ticking off at CAL. That first year pay at all airlines is so similar....even F9 is in the 30/hr range. It isn't acceptable, but I can't see how it's a deciding factor. It is really more of a 'that's really going to suck' factor.