You look at first year pay, but have you considered 4th year pay as a captain at CAL? Or maybe you just want to sit on the 777 at $99 an hour at that point (if I remember right). It's not even a long shot, and since it appears your decision is monetarily based, you would have looked at this, no? It really negates the 1st year pay in the decision making process you used in your post.
If you're wanting to go to UAL, uh...you're going to start at low pay rates, too, and their contract is up in '09, merger talks are dying down but they are in a rough spot to come in as a newhire. By the time you were hired there, it is likely to be 6 months to a year from now anyway....time you could have been ticking off at CAL. That first year pay at all airlines is so similar....even F9 is in the 30/hr range. It isn't acceptable, but I can't see how it's a deciding factor. It is really more of a 'that's really going to suck' factor.
What if you don't want to be based in EWR? What if you want to live somewhere west of there? That 3 or 4 year upgrade to captain is only available in EWR I would bet, so if you want to live anywhere west of there that upgrade would not be there. How long until you can hold a widebody in IAH as an fo? Probably a lot longer than EWR. So, a lot of the Continental upgrading and moving up to widebody has to be done in EWR, which may not be for everyone. If you want to live in IAH or commute from somewhere on the West Coast, it looks like you will stay on the 737 for awhile in IAH. How senior is 777 FO or 757/767 FO in IAH?