Trouble ahead for Low Cost Carriers???

[General Lee]

Speedbird,

I do agree with you about that. I will be tough to see those types of "go go" yields, although we heard the same things from our ex-CEO Ron Allen in the warly 90's---"This industry has changed forever....."--and he was talking about the onslaught on Southwest. In fact, we did even better in the boom times of the late 90's----and that of course fell apart after 9-11 and the bad economic cycle. We don't really know what will happen with the economy in the future, but even the "know it all yahoos" in the USAToday Money section today stated that we "could" hit Dow 15,000 at the end of this decade. If things run away again like they did in the late 90's---things could get good again for everyone. But, this time we have some debt burdons, and the internet is a factor.


I am sure that Jetblue will have a profitable run at BOS, but some of the routes I question. (LGB and DEN) Remember that Delta Express was NOT the only game in town in the past, and Metrojet was the other half of the equation. Back then we were both using older 737s, with no IFE. Now, Jetblue and Song will fight it out with nicer aircraft, and IFE---and there is quite a bit of traffic between the upper NE and FLA. Song has the advantage because we can get feed from ACA and their Dornier 328 jets---and Comair's Rj's etc....Delta is currently building a large terminal in BOS (adding to our debt load no less), and plans to have a sizeable network there eventually---with mainline service to ATL, CVG, DFW, BDA, and SLC, Delta Shuttle service to LGA and RJ service to DCA, Song service to FLA and LAS, and many RJ flights to all around the NE, and eventually nonstop service to Europe (before 9-11 happened, we were planning nonstop 738 service to Shannon and Manchester---no joke).

As far as Jetblue service to DEN, I know frontier dropped the only LCC service, but it will be late night nonstop service westbound, and an allnighter eastbound. A lot of people do not prefer those times. And to LGB---I know some people like the convienence if they live or work near there----maybe the shipping industry in San Pedro, or people who live in Palos Verdes. But other than that, I think a cab ride from LGB to Burbank or north of LAX, or one south to Orange County or Newport Beach--would be expensive and a hassle on the 405 freeway. But, maybe there is a need for people in the LGB area to go to BOS.....Time will tell. Also, there isn't a lot of room to add more flights at LGB---since they only have a limited amount of slots thanks to the LGB city council. If more are given out, expect Delta and others to ask for most of them---for fair competition......yeah right.

We shall see if this all works out for Jetblue. I think they will do well on some, and may flounder on others (like LAS--LGB--used to be hourly almost) I don't think Delta disregards them anymore.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[jetblue320]

But the impression that is left by many JB pilots I have run across is that you guys are immune to any type of downturn.

Yes, that may be true for some of them but certainly only the gullible and naive ones. Fortunately, they don't make the decisions at their level!

See ya

 

[B6Busdriver]

General,
Do you really think JetBlue's intention of acquiring slots in LGB was so they could have hourly service to the lowest yielding market in the country? Come on. Plain and simple, service was started between LGB-LAS and LGB-OAK to avoid a lawsuit; nothing more nothing less.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Perhaps unheeded was an unfair characterization. But the impression that is left by many JB pilots I have run across is that you guys are immune to any type of downturn.

There may well be some at jetBlue with that mentality but I can promise you that is NOT the overall sentiment. Many at JB are re-treads(myself furloughed) and didn't just fall off the apple cart yesterday. Many are painfully aware of bankruptcies,mergers,strikes,etc,etc.
The one thing that gives me hope is our management. I have heard them say over and over and over again that we are only as good as our last flight. Our own management is quick to point out how tough this business is and how all competition must be taken seriously.
Please don't confuse a few people's over exuberance as the overwhelming sentiment at jetBlue.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Joe, we've all got our opinions. However, JBLU is starting to be caught in the crosshairs of multiple carriers. I didn't mention AMR's aggressive response to JBLU expanding service in BOS.
The number of carriers that are aggressively battling JBLU increases daily. It's just like the game of Risk ... it doesn't matter if you're the strongest one on the board if you've got 5 opponents simultaneously gunning for you. Eventually they'll weaken you enough that you'll lose.
While $600 mil may sound like a lot, UAIR currently has $1.9 bil in cash and financial analysts are already preparing the fat lady for her encore in CCY.

You are right about one thing, we are in everyone's crosshairs. Personally, I cringe everyttime I read a flowery piece of journalism about jetBlue.
I've heard your prediction that jetBlue will "fold it's tent". We shall see. I'm sure you would never wish that on us. Your outlook on our certain demise comes from your vast experience in this industry. I'm sure you have no ill will or axe to grind. Right?

Oh and by the way.Comparing our cash postion to UAIR is apples and oranges and you know it.

 

[General Lee]

B6busdriver,

I guess that was a good way to use the slots or "give them up" at LGB. You were trying to find anything while looking for better use. I guess that was smart. As for everyone gunning for you----you don't blame us, do you? Your CEO has slammed us many times in the media, and the "Song sung Blue" name of one of your busses wasn't very nice. (I thought it was clever, though) Ofcourse you are the media darling, and AA is going to fight you, Song, everyone. Then you will have Southwest breathing down your neck (in PHL, and other places eventually), and it might get tougher down the road. But, I don't see you disappearing---primarily because you have a good product. But, other airlines will try to squeeze you---no doubt.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[B6Busdriver]

B6busdriver,

I guess that was a good way to use the slots or "give them up" at LGB. You were trying to find anything while looking for better use. I guess that was smart. As for everyone gunning for you----you don't blame us, do you? Your CEO has slammed us many times in the media, and the "Song sung Blue" name of one of your busses wasn't very nice. (I thought it was clever, though) Ofcourse you are the media darling, and AA is going to fight you, Song, everyone. Then you will have Southwest breathing down your neck (in PHL, and other places eventually), and it might get tougher down the road. But, I don't see you disappearing---primarily because you have a good product. But, other airlines will try to squeeze you---no doubt.

Bye Bye--General Lee

You are right, we are on the radar screen and now everyone is after us. The name Song Sung Blue(a Neill Diamond song) came form the employee name the plane contest. The name was selected before Song was created. That said the name was put into use after Song was announced.

 

[General Lee]

B6busdriver,

Hey, I thought it was funny. And, I am ashamed to say I like the song, too. (Not that I would listen to Neil Diamond...)

Yeah, you are now in the scopes of every Major and some LCCs out there, and it will get more interesting when we bring back more capacity, and you guys get more airplanes. The only advantage we have at Delta is that we have new airplanes for Song available right NOW. If management wanted to, they could put 10 more 757s onto Song from mainline easily. (we have 120 757s in the mainline fleet----I guess minus 36 now) So, we could put more pressure on quickly if needed. I think they are just watching how Song is doing, and I believe they will put 10-15 more into service next year. Then Airtran will get some 737-700s, and Southwest will get 47 (?) new 737-700s, while getting rid of 15(?) 737-200s. The sky will definitely be a little more crowded over the next couple years.....(we're adding back atleast 9 older 737-200s and 2 767-200s.....)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Andy]

I've heard your prediction that jetBlue will "fold it's tent". We shall see. I'm sure you would never wish that on us. Your outlook on our certain demise comes from your vast experience in this industry. I'm sure you have no ill will or axe to grind. Right?

Oh and by the way.Comparing our cash postion to UAIR is apples and oranges and you know it.

B6Busdriver, it's nothing personal. When many talked about UAL going chap 7 and carriers started to feed on UAL's carcass, I wasn't crying. Heck, I was already furloughed by UAL by that time. I hitched my sail to UAL, through fair winds and foul weather until the day that I retire or UAL goes chap 7.
I'm able to ride out the furlough fairly comfortably; I have enough work with the AF reserve to keep me employed full time.
Before getting hired at UAL, I flew with a nonsched 121 carrier. No complaints. I flew with a lot of pilots who hopped on every upstart hoping to hit a SWA-type pot of gold. These guys flew for WestPac, WinAir, AccessAir, and a ton of other names that I had barely heard of.
FWIW, back in early 2000, I flew into LGA, hopped on the subway and got off at Kew Gardens with resume in hand. I personally talked to JBLU's HR person (she was very nice). I had an interview scheduled what turned out to be the day after I started class at UAL. Had I gone to the interview, I would be a fairly senior capt at JBLU by now. I don't regret my decision.

My opinions of JBLU's future are based on following this industry for more than 35 years; I don't have an axe to grind. I followed the airlines and read the business section of the Washington Post before I was in the third grade. I grew up in a house where my dad was an airline exec. I remember going on vacation to airline conferences in the Canary Islands and Barbados in my teens. Ever wonder what those airline execs discussed? Yes, there was competition among them, but there was also cooperation on mutual goals.
The way that I see it, the legacy carriers view JBLU and other LCCs (other than SWA; they're now too big to take on) as a serious threat to their long term existance, and they will aggressively try to contain them or run them out of business. Someone mentioned AMR's defense against Legacy earlier in the thread. Legacy made the mistake of going after AMR's high revenue biz traveler in AMR's most important hub. I was not at all surprised by AMR's aggressive response.

I realize that JBLU & UAIR finances are apples and oranges. Right now. However, with expansion comes additional infrastructure expenses. JBLU is currently able to get good deals from airports, but that won't last forever. Thus far, JBLU has gotten a nearly free ride vis-a-vis infrastructure costs; going forward, JBLU's fixed costs will grow exponentially as they expand.

 

[lowecur]

UAIR CASH

The last 10Q showed unrestricted cash at a little less than $1.1B. Where are you getting the 1.9B figure from?

 

[Andy]

Re: UAIR CASH

http://www.usairways.com/about/press/nw_03_1021.htm


From paragraph 10:

US Airways Group ended the quarter with total restricted and unrestricted cash of approximately $1.94 billion, including $1.38 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.


Those are end 3Q 2003, press release 20 Oct 03.

 

[Ty Webb]

Originally posted by Andy

I grew up in a house where my dad was an airline exec. I remember going on vacation to airline conferences in the Canary Islands and Barbados in my teens. Ever wonder what those airline execs discussed? Yes, there was competition among them, but there was also cooperation on mutual goals.

Hey, Andy, that's pretty interesting . . . would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in some of those meetings back then. Is your Dad still alive? I would be curious to know how someone form the "golden age" of the airline industry would feel now, and what their career advice would be.

Thanks for writing.

 

[Andy]

Hey, Andy, that's pretty interesting . . . would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in some of those meetings back then. Is your Dad still alive? I would be curious to know how someone form the "golden age" of the airline industry would feel now, and what their career advice would be.

Thanks for writing.

Ty, my dad's been dead for more than a decade now. He got into airline management in the early 60s.
He (and most other execs) hated deregulation, and said that if there was any way that they could go back to regulation, they would. But he realized that the genie was out of the bottle.
Many of those meetings were hosted by Air Transport Association, a legal/lobbying/marketing/jack-of-all-trades organization sponsored by a consortium of airlines. My dad never said what went on at those meetings, but I was always under the impression that it was more like a meeting of all the mafia families where the don decided who would have which territory and who would have a contract put out on their head. He never outright stated that the airlines had become self-regulating, but it was implied in conversations.

 

[Boeingman]

My dad never said what went on at those meetings, but I was always under the impression that it was more like a meeting of all the mafia families where the don decided who would have which territory and who would have a contract put out on their head.

The rumor that went around for years was those exec. strategy meetings always took place in a private hunting lodge near Jackson Hole.

 

[Andy]

The rumor that went around for years was those exec. strategy meetings always took place in a private hunting lodge near Jackson Hole.

I can't speak for the COB/CEO/COO level. The meetings that my dad attended were president and VP level.

 

[Andy]

Don't tell us, are you the test tube baby son of Frank lorenzo and Bob crandell.

LOL!

What are you doing using a cap in uncle frank's name?
I'm looking forward to the day he dies; I'll be standing in line to piss on his grave. All ex-Eastern employees can cut in line in front of me.

Crandall may also be a b*st*rd, but he was freaking smart. He got the senior pilots at AMR to buy into the B scale for new hires in exchange for growth and better career potential for the senior ones. I don't blame him; it's the APA that bought his pitch. And honestly, Crandall's a big reason why AMR's been as successful as it's been.

 

[Mugs]

I'm off flying. I'm careful not to casually say where I'm going because I don't want another lecture from that whiner Mugs.

Merry Christmas Boeingman. Will you tell us about all your new toys for the new year? I'll just whine because I already know I'm not getting anything.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Andy,
Sorry for my slow response but I've been working. Thanks for the great post. I'm furloughed from another carrier and doubt they will even be in business in five years. We shall see. My job at jetBlue is at least a thousand times better than any other job I have had before. No I don't drink KoolAid or blue juice either. I liked my previous job but the company sucked. At jetBlue the job is great and so is the company.
I think lumping us into the same category as WestPac,Winair,etc isn't quite a fair comparison. JetBlue has been profitable, something those companies never achieved. The true test is coming over the next few years as the majors get strong again. Obviously I hope we don't fold our tent but then again you never know. Best of luck and I hope you get recalled soon.

 

[skykid]

B6Busdriver, you are exactly right - comparing JB, Airtran, SW, and Frontier to LCCs that failed is about as stupid as comparing American, United, and Delta to Eastern and Pan Am. It is fairly obvoius that the LCCs I mentioned have learned a lesson or two from the failures of the past. I am convinced the domestic travel in this country has changed and will never be the same. We are going to see a lot more business travel if the economy keeps ramping up, but they will stay price sensitive. The big boys either have to compete domestically, or die.