Trouble ahead for Low Cost Carriers???

[General Lee]

Flyboeingjets,

I am not angry. Delta is trying to get back on their feet, and there are a lot of positive signs leading that way, especially contract negotiations, which isn't great news for me. That's ok, it will all turn out for the best. The first class service and section does better in a better economy, so it won't hurt. Song seems to be doing well, and probably will expand. We will see if that will help or hurt us, but so far it is promising. Take care.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[SWAdude]

There is little doubt that the legacy carriers are/will be recovering. Historically this is the deepest airline depression...but not the first one by far.

SWAdude

 

[General Lee]

I like this nicer tone. I think we can all be friends............We should all have a beer on a layover---except SWADude will be buying.....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[SWAdude]

But, of course, hopefully the last.

SWAdude

Except General I will be buying you a shot!

 

[DrunkIrishman]

real intellectual!!! You saying HD employees are somehow below the stature of you Valudeath boys? Last I heard, they hadn't killed a bunch of thier customers through negligence.....

FWIW, HD actually has killed some of its customers due to negligence. Lowe's, on the other hand, has not to my knowledge.

 

[FLB717]

Les
Ill type real slow so you can follow what Im saying. Most of your post have a combination of AirTran+Valujet = AirTran/ValuJet. Why because I think you like to poke fingers at the merger/accident or maybe you thought the "Critter" on the aircraft was stupid. It realy doesnt matter the reason, you hate us and thats ok. The point was that many airlines have merged and/or been bought out. Ive noticed that you use only AT/VJ in that manor, so I used many of the others in the same light. Will Airtran or Delta be here in 20 years...I dont know, see ya in 20 and well know.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

The fare war I see coming is going to be brutal. Will it start this next spring/summer??

We have big orders at the LCCs and airplanes coming out of the desert. Lots of capacity to fight for the business and leisure traveler.

Those that continue, or start, to post losses for '04 will have serious problems ahead.

 

[Andy]

The fare war I see coming is going to be brutal. Will it start this next spring/summer??

We have big orders at the LCCs and airplanes coming out of the desert. Lots of capacity to fight for the business and leisure traveler.

Those that continue, or start, to post losses for '04 will have serious problems ahead.

I'm betting on spring '04. The legacy carriers are starting to be cash flow positive. I expect the legacy carriers to get increasingly cash flow positve into the spring.
The legacy carriers will then emerge from their 'hunker down' posture and we'll start to see some bloody fare wars on selected routes.
The legacy carriers won't take on every LCC, but I do see them dogpiling on JBLU and any other LCC flying transcons.
In the end, I expect JBLU to fold its tent. The epitaph will read (as it has for most other LCCs that are morts) that JBLU overexpanded. It isn't overexpansion that will kill JBLU; it's the competition in those markets. JBLU is in two markets where they face competition from multiple carriers; it'll just turn into a huge fare war.

This is the standard airline playbook from recessions and recoveries of the past; just the names have changed.

 

[General Lee]

There's only so many one time charges a CFO can pull out of the hat. With a better economy, I think the legacy carriers will start to do a lot better. Also, most of them have taken huge cuts and gotten leaner since 2001. That will have to show somewhere---and being leaner during better economic times will show results.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Ty Webb]

Re: Les

Hey, Guys, it's a new week, and you know what that means- time to appoint a new Village Idiot. So far, it looks like Joe Peeoznotz is going to be hard to beat, what with gems like this one:

News flash for Joe-

Being able to require "up front money" is a sign of strength, not weakness. . . .

Now, repeat after me, "Better to be silent and be thought a fool, than open your mouth and remove all doubt".