Trouble ahead for Low Cost Carriers???

[FLB717]

Les
Ill type real slow so you can follow what Im saying. Most of your post have a combination of AirTran+Valujet = AirTran/ValuJet. Why because I think you like to poke fingers at the merger/accident or maybe you thought the "Critter" on the aircraft was stupid. It realy doesnt matter the reason, you hate us and thats ok. The point was that many airlines have merged and/or been bought out. Ive noticed that you use only AT/VJ in that manor, so I used many of the others in the same light. Will Airtran or Delta be here in 20 years...I dont know, see ya in 20 and well know.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

The fare war I see coming is going to be brutal. Will it start this next spring/summer??

We have big orders at the LCCs and airplanes coming out of the desert. Lots of capacity to fight for the business and leisure traveler.

Those that continue, or start, to post losses for '04 will have serious problems ahead.

 

[Andy]

The fare war I see coming is going to be brutal. Will it start this next spring/summer??

We have big orders at the LCCs and airplanes coming out of the desert. Lots of capacity to fight for the business and leisure traveler.

Those that continue, or start, to post losses for '04 will have serious problems ahead.

I'm betting on spring '04. The legacy carriers are starting to be cash flow positive. I expect the legacy carriers to get increasingly cash flow positve into the spring.
The legacy carriers will then emerge from their 'hunker down' posture and we'll start to see some bloody fare wars on selected routes.
The legacy carriers won't take on every LCC, but I do see them dogpiling on JBLU and any other LCC flying transcons.
In the end, I expect JBLU to fold its tent. The epitaph will read (as it has for most other LCCs that are morts) that JBLU overexpanded. It isn't overexpansion that will kill JBLU; it's the competition in those markets. JBLU is in two markets where they face competition from multiple carriers; it'll just turn into a huge fare war.

This is the standard airline playbook from recessions and recoveries of the past; just the names have changed.

 

[General Lee]

There's only so many one time charges a CFO can pull out of the hat. With a better economy, I think the legacy carriers will start to do a lot better. Also, most of them have taken huge cuts and gotten leaner since 2001. That will have to show somewhere---and being leaner during better economic times will show results.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Ty Webb]

Re: Les

Hey, Guys, it's a new week, and you know what that means- time to appoint a new Village Idiot. So far, it looks like Joe Peeoznotz is going to be hard to beat, what with gems like this one:

News flash for Joe-

Being able to require "up front money" is a sign of strength, not weakness. . . .

Now, repeat after me, "Better to be silent and be thought a fool, than open your mouth and remove all doubt".

 

[Joe Peeoznotz]

Ty your own shoes

Oh, horsefeathers!

Don't hold your breath too long on this continued addition to your bottom line. By the way, since you are such a 10K fan, why don't you point out where they break out the "hold up" money in the 10K? I guess stockholders for the company don't have a right to know. Next time you see Joe, tell him I luv the transparency.

Maybe you're really not making money at all on operations.

"Those that remain silent can only follow."

When you wake up, be sure and wipe of the druel.

 

[Ty Webb]

Well, you have certainly opened your mouth and removed all doubt.

When a community comes to us and asks us to begin service (as PNS did, and BMI, and ICT, and many others) we ask the business community to guarantee a certain amount of revenue. If ridership is not high enough to be profitable, the difference comes from the travel bank. So, regardless of ridership, the service will be profitable.

It's actually very smart . . . . too bad that you feel so threatened by it. It must be a very big and scary world to someone with such limited mental development.

I really doubt that SWA hired an idiot like yourself, but if they did, I would keep my mouth shut and hope they don;t ever discover their mistake.

squawk, squawk.

 

[Joe Peeoznotz]

Oh Ty

You're such a kidder!

No Ty, it's bad public relations. This industry has had two big black eyes for a long time because of these kind of business practices. It's too bad FL is the only LCC stooping so low. I hope some of these cities have a long memory when they consider future gate assignments.

Now Ty, would you care to answer my question of the 10K? I didn't think so. Dribble, dribble.

 

[Ty Webb]

There is nothing special to report on a 10K or a 10Q. It is revenue, pure and simple . . . .

You seem to think that it is some sort of evil practice.

It is not.

Let me tell you how it came about. When we began service to MOB, walk-up tickets to ATL, which is approx 303 nm, were $600. When we started service for $149. (or $129. or whatever it was) Delta responded by adding flights and matching these fares, at a substantial and unsustainable loss.

The local populace did not seem to understand DAL's newfound benevolence . . . and eagerly snapped up the cheap tickets on DAL, while pocketing the FF miles, and were amazed at their newfound fortune.

Eventually, AirTran dropped the city, stating that the locals were not patronizing the service.

The very next day, DAL raised the fares right back to $600. for a walk-up, and the locals were wandering around in a daze, saying, "What happened"?

When the next small-market city approached us, we are a little more savvy . . . . so we now say, "It costs us at least half a million dollars in initial losses to open your city, and possibly a few more million in losses when the legacy carrier that has held you hostage all this time decides suddenly to suddenly match our fares . . . . so if you want us to come in, you are going to have to show us that you are making a commitment to this process, as we are . . . and put together some sort of guarantee that you are in this for the long haul".

It makes perfect sense to me, and I don't hear any one crying about it but you, and you don;t even have a dog in this fight, do you?

 

[T-Bags]

"Let me tell you how it came about. When we began service to MOB, walk-up tickets to ATL, which is approx 303 nm, were $600. When we started service for $149. (or $129. or whatever it was) Delta responded by adding flights and matching these fares, at a substantial and unsustainable loss."

So what you are saying is that for the same price, most people prefer DAL (despite the old Mad dogs). Superior product huh? I wonder if SWA would have tucked tail and run... Maybe cities who have never enjoyed the "valujet experience" think they are getting another SWA, but when you guys show up with some of the worst operational statistics in the industry, and @sshole employees like "TY" (you should wear your hat TY, it covers the foreskin...), they decide they don't want to fly you at any price. Now this "vote for us" joke of a marketing campaign REALLY makes me laugh. You guys have probably got the speed dial in all the trailer parks changed from the Bail Bondsman to good old AT...

 

[Joe Peeoznotz]

Ty me down will ya

If I wanted to listen to the History Channel, I could just tune in.

If it's revenue then break it out. Inquiring minds want to know. Wichita has paid you guys a fortune, and it ain't coming from a travel bank, it's coming from the tax payers. This has been a quiet money maker for FL for quite a while. I would bet that if WN or B6 began this practice, it would be in front of Congress.

Could you imagine if every airline began using this practice? It's an outrage, and your company should be ashamed.

 

[Ty Webb]

Bird-Brain:

You know, I remember you now. You jumpseat on us sometimes, from ICT to MDW!

Wow. It takes a real jackass to shake your hand, requesting a jumpseat and then turn around and badmouth you and your company on a public forum.

As for your insinuation that there is something wrong with the local business community putting up a travel bank- you aren;t just a jackass, you're an idiot, to boot!

Here's a quarter- call Ralph Nader, tell him I said, "Hi!".

 

[Ty Webb]

Well, that was about five years ago. Amazing how things change.

Our oldest 717 is newer than Delta's newest plane. Have you seen some of those Delta planes taxiing around? What a fine looking fleet. When you can see past the dirt, there are three separate paint schemes out there, not to mention all the mismatched radomes, rudders and tailcones!

Our F/A's aren't ancient galley hags with a 20 year pin, a sense of entitlement and a crossword puzzle book- and we have full service on a 42 minute leg, which you will not get on Delta, I guarantee it.

T-Bags, you crack me up. You are so pathetic.

Here, man, just relax, sit sit back and have yourself a nice big can of Shut the F#ck Up!

 

[Joe Peeoznotz]

Ty one on will ya

Did that quarter come from a travel bank? I'm sorry, but I can't accept it.

 

[T-Bags]

"So what you are saying is that for the same price, most people prefer DAL (despite the old Mad dogs). Superior product huh?

Well, that was about five years ago. Amazing how things change.

Our oldest 717 is newer than Delta's newest plane. Have you seen some of those Delta planes taxiing around? What a fine looking fleet. When you can see past the dirt, there are three separate paint schemes out there, not to mention all the mismatched radomes, rudders and tailcones!"

And they STILL prefer DAL. Must be the @assholes up front who can't seem to ever be on time.

"Our F/A's aren't ancient galley hags with a 20 year pin, a sense of entitlement and a crossword puzzle book- and we have full service on a 42 minute leg, which you will not get on Delta, I guarantee it."

Nah, just skank ho's who couldn't get hired by a major. BTW TY, 6 YEARS?! You've been trying to get a real job for 6 YEARS and the best you could do was Valujet? LOL!! If you'd like, we can send you copies of our interview and hire letters from your dream airlines. You can black out the names, put yours in, and finally have a letter from DAL, UAL, SWA, or AMR that doesn't say "sorry, we don't hire child molesters, try Airtran..." Are those grapes REALLY THAT SOUR? If I'm ever part of a picket line, I'm sure I'll finally get to meet you.... as you are crossing it...