Transportation SEC wonders about DL--NW merge

[800Dog]

truth hurts.

I am furloughed AA so what happens at any legacy carrier has a possible effect on me.

I fail to see any truth, just an opinion. What happens at any carrier has an affect on all of us. Don't be so shortsighted.

 

[G4G5]

You and I both don't know what will stay or go. Delta seems to like the 8 777s, and they may be the precursor to the 787. We also finished 90% of all of our lease negotiations, which usually means we re-upped on new leases. Will we break those after a merger?

Exit financing isn't put in place to place new 777 orders. What's a more real possibility, that a combined DAL/NWA will keep a fleet type of just 8 -777's. Try to remember that they already have 15-A330's with 24 more on order. Or is your contention that they will keep both A330's and 8-777's? Where's the $aving$? Let's not forget that the 777 also pays the most. If you were managing a bankrupt carrier what would you do?

I don't think so if we got a great deal, and apparently we have done very well with that 90%. We will likely keep the 764s, and you forgot we even had those. Will those be wide bodies? They are huge. So, you can add 8 777s to 22 764s. Are you saying our INTL flying 767-300ERs that go to Moscow and Budapest wouldn't get widebody pay?

That's exactly what I am saying. What are they doing at USAir and UAL, paying the 767's just like 757's, with intl over ride. Not like 747's, 777's or even A330's.

We just got a 14% pay cut, and that was across the board. The 767 is now paid 14% less than before Dec 15th, 2005. So is the 737-200. Doesn't matter. NW took a 29% pay cut. That is significant. We are approaching a LCC type airline, and we still have widebodies that bring in more revenue than a narrowbody.

What was you first pay cut %? With the 14% pay cut, does that take you guys above 29%?

I just want to know where you are coming up with these assertions. You totally forgot about our 22 764s (which are widebodies almost as big as the 777), and you forgot all about our 767-300s and 120 757s. We are a lot larger than NW, and you didn't know that we are both at the table talking about the 787 with Boeing. Yes, they have 747s---and those would be fenced for awhile I am sure, if this thing happens at all. Speculation---but you need to know the numbers and sizes.


This is where you guys are wrong.

777: 8
767-400: 21
767-300: 86
767-200: 10
757: 121
MD90: 16
MD80: 120
737-800: 71
737-300: 12
737-200: 36

747-400: 16
747-200: 8
747-200F: 14
A330-300: 8
A330-200: 7
DC10-30: 22

757-300: 16
757-200: 56

A320: 78
A319: 72

DC9: 150

18 firm 787 orders; 50 options
Taking delivery of 24 new A330s next 5 years

Bye Bye--General Lee

NWA has 150 DC9's and DAL has 136 MD88/90's
NWA has 150 A319/320 DAL has 119 737 series

Totals NWA - 300, DAL -254
Welcome to you new narrow/small pay scale (just like UAL and USAir)

DAL has 217 757's and 767 200/300
NWA has 72 757's
This is the same way they are grouped for pay at USAir and UAL

Wide body
DAL has 8-777's and 21-767-400's
NWA has 38 747's, 22 DC10's and 15 A330's
DAL 29, NWA 75

Grand totals
NWA 447
DAL 500

Now what about the grand DAL fleet plan?
http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_aviationdaily_story.jsp?id=news/del09154.xml
I added 10-767/200's aren't they all going to ABEX or the desert? The master plan also calls for the reduction of the 737-200's and 300's (another 48 aircraft). Does the master plan call for keeping the 16 MD90's?

When you look at what Green jeans has determined to be the remaining fleet types. DAL and NWA are almost the same size.

 

[G4G5]

FYI, the 767 is a wide bodied aircraft and I'd rather have 120 767 then a handful of DC-10s and 747s. At the end of the day the bulk of the DAL pilot group is flying 757s and767/300/400s, about 240 airframes, whereas the bulk of the NWA pilot group is out flying DC-9s and A319/20s.

NWA has 60 DC10's and Whales, hardly a handful. I am pretty sure that those heavy crews would much rather fly their aircraft Vs your 757 or 767, to each his own. By the way the DC10's are getting replaced with A330's 15 already on the real estate with 24 more over the next 5 years to replace the 22 DC10's.

Take a look at the numbers, the airlines are almost the same size.

 

[G4G5]

Yeah, it's on top of your head.

Glad to see you have your next career already place.

Oh you slay me.

Look, all I am saying is that you need to follow the $$$. Your mgt will do exactly what they have learned they can do from all of the previous bankruptcies. They will group you guys into pay classes. The 767 will not be a widebody. They will get ride of odd fleet's like the MD90's and IF their is a merger, little single digit fleets like your 8-777's don't stand a chance (If you merge with NWA). Big IF.

Now if you were to merge with UAL or CAL, then they would keep the 777's and the integration ratio's would be different but that was not what this post was about.

The NWA pilot's have shown in the past that they will protect their heavies with large fences. Just ask the Blue and Green guys (Hughes and Republic). I would expect nothing less, if they were to merge with you. Since they have no 767's, they will be pushing for the very same thing that yours and their mgt will be trying to do (group the 757s with the 767's). You guys will be left out on your own to fight what UAL and USAir have already given away.

I am not trying to be a wise as, just an unfortunate realist. More power if you can make it happen but IMHO, Good luck.

This sux for everybody, 5 years ago when I got hired with AA, I thought I would be right seat in an A300 or 777 by 2006.

 

[tico]

Lets hope they do merge....that way whe they flop and liquidate, it will kill to stones with one bird

 

[800Dog]

Lets hope they do merge....that way whe they flop and liquidate, it will kill to stones with one bird

Well said! You must be an Alabama grad.

War Eagle!

 

[bestpilot]

Give me a break. Delta and Northwest together just makes one big Bankrupt airline. I personally would like to see Air Tran and Delta merge. That would be funny. The Delta Elite mixed in with the lower level of aviation. What a blast. Ty Webb could really brag then.

Duuude, whatsup wit you, my bother who been drinkin brewskis with somma dat halucinogen stuff mixed in wit it?

Delta and Da Tranny doin da merge. Awww Yeahhhhhh!

Duuuude, I was gonna say like some stuff, but I jus don't feel good abouts being like funny an stuff and then like havin ole Eagle Flip all like mad at me like NOW wuz like all mad at Jo-Pa--Ter-No cause he like said somethin dat dem ladies aint be diggin at all.

Naw, bro, you be like tryin to like be stirrin dat pot. I aint knowin if like dem Deltoids and like dem Norwesterners are gonna git together or not, but I guess dat in time, all will be revealed.

Hey Norsedudes, why is it dat on the tail of your planes, on like one side, dat arrow be pointin Northwest but like on dat udder side, it be like pointin Northeast? Duuude, I cant be figurin it out, and its like makin me dizzy, so dizzy my head is spinnin, so like can you Norsedudes like help a Tranny dude out?

Peace and much love!

Party on Wayne!

Party on Garth!

 

[DTW320]

Trivial Corrections

Just for clarity:

The 20 year Roberts award at NWA is dead as of 1/1/2006.

NWAALPA just took a 23.9% paycut, not 29%.

NWA's 23.9% and DAL's 14% cut are part of interim agreements. There are 1113 motions in play at both carriers and the final outcomes are not yet known.

The former Republic pilots at NWA (including former North Central, Southern, HughesAirWest) are the greenbook pilots. Blue pilots are all hired after the 1986 Republic/NWA merger. However we are all essentially Blue now that the Roberts award is over.

NWA is on the books as the launch US 787 customer. For now.....

No current plan for the 747-400's to do Cargo. They have said they plan a 747-400/A330/787 passenger widebody fleet.

34% of NWA pilots fly the 747-400/200/A330/DC10

Of the remaining 66%, half fly the A320/319.

We have no idea why the right side of the vert. stab has an arrow pointing NE.

"tico" is a disgruntled former AMFA guy who also goes by "dogg"

 

[mnboyev]

Lets say you folks did merge ?... Not sure why they would do that expensive messy contortion?.. Dont you fellas benefit from all the code share buddy buddy program ? Why merge when you realize all the benefits with significant code share agreements ?

Besides.. Delta may have to get rid of those double breasted yackets... mmmm. (Just kidding... I know our little brown plether A2's look tacky..)

The analcysts... keep saying consolidation.. but it doesnt seem to make sense ? Food for thought. If Hockey Puck and USAir work, and efficiencies are produced, cool. But, if labor disruptions and turmoil are created.. what effect and cost will this have.. I seem to remember a little Republic / Red Tail problem back in the day..... TWA/AA.. well that worked out pretty good..??

Amusing to think about.... Painful to live through for all involved.

 

[NAA Pilot]

If you have any doubts just ask the TWA 767 guys how they liked flying the AA 777's or A300's. Oh that's right they can't because the intergration process grouped the 767's in with the 757's.

.

I'll take a stab at this. TWA did not have any 777 or A300s. It was one more way that the APA (you) could screw these guys. the 757/767 is grouped together at a lot of airlines because it is the SAME type rating (DUH). The 767 is a wide body. Anyone who says that it is not is an idiot.

 

[fokkerjet]

Since all this could possibly take place 5 years from now, won't both airlines have a whole different fleet mix since both are currently trying to reduce their mixes or farm out some of the flying? Delta could possibily be left with the B777's, B757/767's, and 737NG's, and Northwest with B747's, A330's, B757's and A319/320's; the DC10's, older B767's, DC9 / MD88 / MD90's and B737 "classics" leaving the fleets. How do you put all the remaining aircraft together and make a viable, profitable airline with such a diverse fleet again? The only common type would be the 757, and maybe the 787 if Delta orders, but otherwise you go back to operating with 9 different types of aircraft?

Just wondering!

 

[81Horse]

DTW320:

-- The 20 year Roberts award at NWA is dead as of 1/1/2006.

Thanks for clarifying; I had forgotten the drop-dead date on this. Of course, with NWA in a downsizing mode now, I wouldn't be surprised to see attempts made to revisit this award (vis a vis position and base bumps and flushes).

-- We have no idea why the right side of the vert. stab has an arrow pointing NE.

I heard the reason was $$ (they didn't have to do a mirror-image graphic for the right side), but maybe this is an urban pilot myth.

-- "tico" is a disgruntled former AMFA guy who also goes by "dogg"

Hunh. For reals? I was wondering, 'cause I can't fathom why any pilot would wish such ill on two airlines and all their employees.

 

[General Lee]

NWA has 150 DC9's and DAL has 136 MD88/90's
NWA has 150 A319/320 DAL has 119 737 series

Totals NWA - 300, DAL -254
Welcome to you new narrow/small pay scale (just like UAL and USAir)

DAL has 217 757's and 767 200/300
NWA has 72 757's
This is the same way they are grouped for pay at USAir and UAL

Wide body
DAL has 8-777's and 21-767-400's
NWA has 38 747's, 22 DC10's and 15 A330's
DAL 29, NWA 75

Grand totals
NWA 447
DAL 500

Now what about the grand DAL fleet plan?
http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_aviationdaily_story.jsp?id=news/del09154.xml
I added 10-767/200's aren't they all going to ABEX or the desert? The master plan also calls for the reduction of the 737-200's and 300's (another 48 aircraft). Does the master plan call for keeping the 16 MD90's?

When you look at what Green jeans has determined to be the remaining fleet types. DAL and NWA are almost the same size.

Yes, some of those planes will go away, like the 767-200s to ABX in a couple years (1 per quarter), and the 737-200s are scheduled to eventually go--although I heard we may keep some for a bit longer because the lease rates shrunk to $15,000 a month---from over $100,000. NW will also be getting rid of plenty of DC9s, and all of their DC-10s. As far as exit financing paying for new aircraft, that is what happened at Air Canada. They were days from liquidation, and then they eventually came out and ordered 20 777s and 35 787s. USAir got some money from Airbus to order 20 A350s. It can happen, and both NW and DL are supposedly talking to Boeing about the 787.

The 16 MD90s and most of the MD88s are supposed to stay around until 2011/2012. We still have some 738s on order, but they have been pushed back. I thought we were going to get one more 777 (oh yeah--1) sometime soon, but I have lost track.

Overall, we have a lot more widebodies and larger narrowbody equipment (757s) than NW. Yes, I could see them placing a fence on the 747, and that would be expected---and our 777 would also be fenced. Who knows? Also, we are still in negotiations and the company set a rate (that is hopefully negotiable) for a future 100 seater, that could replace the 737-200s. We shall see.......


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FDJ2]

The biggest problem is fleet commonality, the biggest benefit is that NWA has a strong route system where DAL's is weak and DAL has a strong route system where NWA's is weak.

I don't see the seniority issues as troublesome as some. Both pilot groups have roughly equivalent career expectations, if you can claim one in BK. The average DAL aircraft is larger then the average NWA aircraft, there are simply more wide bodied aircraft and 757s at DAL then at NWA, but NWA does have a few aircraft that are larger then DAL's, although DAL 777, pay rates are higher then NWA's 747-400 rates and the DAL 767-400 pays more then anything other than the 747-400 at NWA. NWA DC-10 and A330 rates are marginally higher than DAL's 767/757 pates, but DAL's 737-800 rates are higher than NWA's 757 rates and the MD88s at DAL pay roughly the same as NWA's 320s and more then the DC-9. What the ultimate fleet plan of a merged list would look like would be anyones guess.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that if, and that is still a very big if, there was a merger, I think there would probably be seat and base protection, small fences, and an integration based on maintaining the same relative seniority number. Top 5% stay in the top 5% all the way down.

 

[G4G5]

I'll take a stab at this. TWA did not have any 777 or A300s. It was one more way that the APA (you) could screw these guys. the 757/767 is grouped together at a lot of airlines because it is the SAME type rating (DUH). The 767 is a wide body. Anyone who says that it is not is an idiot.

No one argues that the 767 in a widebody. Big deal. My landlord stopped taking titles years ago, he wants money.

What is the 767 pay like at the 2 legacy carriers that have gone through bankruptcy? How do USAir and UAL pay the 767? It's grouped in with the narrow body 757. So if you want to tell everyone you fly a widebody or we have more 767's then you. Big deal. I would rather have the cash.

Seniority arbitrators look at previous history to determine integrations. The 767 pilots at TWA were fenced off of anything larger (and yes on paper TWA still had ownership of a 747, in the desert). The Delta pilots did the same thing to the Pan Am pilots. At the time Pan Am had 747's but because none were taken the Pan Am pilots were fenced off of the MD11's and L1011's.

That's my point with the 8-777's. If they don't wind up at NWA, history has shown (by the very same DAL pilots) that they don't count. With over 33% of then NWA list flying A330's or larger, it will be very difficult for the DAL MEC to avoid huge fences because the career expectations of the NWA pilots are to fly large aircraft.

 

[General Lee]

No one argues that the 767 in a widebody. Big deal. My landlord stopped taking titles years ago, he wants money.

What is the 767 pay like at the 2 legacy carriers that have gone through bankruptcy? How do USAir and UAL pay the 767? It's grouped in with the narrow body 757. So if you want to tell everyone you fly a widebody or we have more 767's then you. Big deal. I would rather have the cash.

Seniority arbitrators look at previous history to determine integrations. The 767 pilots at TWA were fenced off of anything larger (and yes on paper TWA still had ownership of a 747, in the desert). The Delta pilots did the same thing to the Pan Am pilots. At the time Pan Am had 747's but because none were taken the Pan Am pilots were fenced off of the MD11's and L1011's.

That's my point with the 8-777's. If they don't wind up at NWA, history has shown (by the very same DAL pilots) that they don't count. With over 33% of then NWA list flying A330's or larger, it will be very difficult for the DAL MEC to avoid huge fences because the career expectations of the NWA pilots are to fly large aircraft.

How much did we keep of Pan Am? Not much, except their routes, and we were the aggressor. You don't have that with this possible merger. And, we have more larger equipment. The A330 is smaller than the 777 and 764. After the A330, they have some 753s (we have more domestic 767-300s).

This is really all moot until it happens. But, I think we are bigger and have more widebodies and larger naroowbodies. Again, fences might be placed around the remaining 744s, but the others--742 and DC10s will go away like our 762s. Will our 777s go away? Probably not--we just re-upped all of the leases.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[81Horse]

-- This is really all moot until it happens. But, I think we are bigger ...

This is funny.

Seriously, let's start another rumor to argue about.

 

[800Dog]

-- This is really all moot until it happens. But, I think we are bigger ...

This is funny.

Seriously, let's start another rumor to argue about.

I heard Hooters Air is buying Delta and the Hooters girls are asking for date of hire. My resource said the Hooters girls think nothing less than 767 FO is acceptable.

 

[81Horse]

-- the Hooters girls think nothing less than 767 FO is acceptable.

Yeah? I heard the Delta merger committee is proposing a ratio of two Hooters F/O'a for every one DL captain.