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Thinking out loud on DHL and asking a few QQ's
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Big Beer Belly
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TWA
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I count 4:
1. UPS
2. FedEx
3. USPS
4. DHL
BBB
And only 2 with their own lift at that point. God I miss those 72s with the big eagle on the tail.
Bob Dylan
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Research note on DHL from today:::
DHL ON THE BRINK. We believe DHL is close to a major withdrawal
from the former Airborne, U.S. Dom. Package business, beyond its prior May
announcement. Within weeks we expect DHL could begin exiting the U.S. ground
business entirely and possibly also the Dom. Air Express business, leaving
itself with basically only import/export express rev., as it was prior to
Airborne in C02.
· FDX AND UPS WOULD BENEFIT. Depending on whether it can resolve the
still pending UPS air linehaul agreement, we believe DHL could either shrink
or remove itself entirely from the intra-U.S. express market. We estimate
DHL is down to roughly $2.6B in total U.S. dom. (ground and air) rev. While
we estimate a total shut down would improve both FDX's and UPS's Dom.
Package vols and EPS in C09 by roughly 3-6% and 3%, DHL's removal could have
a vastly larger long-term positive impact on pricing (see below).
· NEAR-TERM UPSIDE LIKELY, DRIVEN BY FUEL. We estimate that FDX's
EPS should benefit by about $0.40 (27%) y/y from net fuel in F2Q:09 (Nov).
While freight trends continue to weaken, particularly Int'l trends, FDX
should benefit for at least another 2-3 qtrs from lower fuel and our sense
is materially weaker earnings expectations are now discounted in the stock.
Today, we have raised our F2Q EPS forecast from below to above Cons.
· GROUND CONTRACTOR ISSUES CONTINUE, BUT LIKELY DORMANT FOR NEAR
TERM. We continue to believe that the Ground contractor issues that plague
FDX are not likely to go away and that longer term those issues will weigh
on FDX's valuation. However, at 13x our recession model, low-end estimates,
with little news expected on the Contractors until at least 2009, we believe
that risk is priced in.
· RAISING RATING TO OP AND SETTING $80 TARGET. Our $80 year-end C09
TP assumes a 14.5x target forward P/E applied out 14 months from now on our
then forward-year recovering C10 EPS forecast of $5.50. This also equates to
about a 16x-17x peak P/E on our trough C09 EPS forecast of $4.80.
Investment Conclusion
Raising Airfreight & Logistics Sub-Sector Weighting to Market Overweight. In
addition to raising FDX's rating from Peer to Outperform, we are also today
increasing our sector weighting on the Airfreight & Logistics transport
sub-sector from Market Weight to Market Overweight. We have recently
increased our ratings on TNT, CHRW and EXPD to Outperform and we continue to
rate UPS, HUBG and UTIW Outperform. Our other Sector weightings remain
Market Overweight for Rails and Market Underweight for Trucks.
FDX is down about 30% YTD compared to UPS down about 28%, our average
Airfreight & Logistics Index (excluding FDX) down 22% and the S&P 500 down
35%. On October 10th we upgraded FDX from Under to Peer Perform after the
stock declined 13% below our former downside target price of $77. We also
noted that near-term fuel tailwinds and DHL problems could provide near-term
upside. Subsequently last week we moved our group to recession models for
2009 which assume -2% GDP during C1H:09 and 0% growth during C2H:09. At that
time we lowered our F09 EPS forecast for FDX from $5.50 to $4.80 (compared
to current Consensus $5.18) and our C09 EPS forecast from $5.43 to $4.80 and
introduced our C10 estimate of $5.50. Today we are raising our current
November quarter F2Q:09 EPS forecast from $1.40 to $1.50 (compared to
current $1.44 Cons) based on our expectation for FDX to achieve a roughly
$0.40 y/y (27%) net fuel benefit which should more than offset weakening
U.S. and global volumes and yields.
Besides from a likely upside surprise in December when FDX reports, we
expect DHL's likely impending announcement that it is further restructuring
its U.S. domestic operations to serve as a near-term catalyst for FDX and
UPS. While we still believe DHL could finalize its pending contract with UPS
for UPS to provide air linehaul within the U.S., we also see an equally
strong possibility now that DHL just shuts down its domestic operation and
pulls out of the U.S. back to its pre-Airborne 2002 import/export-only days.
Our sense is that DHL is seeing freight diversion from customers faster than
it expected and that if the air linehaul agreement is going to succeed it
will need to be announced shortly. We also believe the value of the air
linehaul agreement which back in May was estimated (by DHL and UPS) at about
$1B in revenue per year to UPS for ten years is likely closer to 25%-50%
lower than that given continued diversion. We do not account for any volume
or profit from the DHL contract in our UPS model, nor do we assume in either
our FDX or UPS model that DHL exits the U.S. domestic package market. Thus
any new restructuring news from DHL would likely provide upside to our
current UPS and FDX expectations.
Below we have estimated the remaining revenue at DHL and how UPS and FDX
might benefit from splitting that revenue if DHL were to leave the U.S.
domestic market. Our sense is that FDX and UPS are increasingly benefitting
from DHL's issues and signing business which will likely start to show up in
their P&L over the next 3-6 months. However, as we display below, DHL's
estimated $2.6B of remaining U.S. domestic revenue would not likely generate
enough profitability during C09 for FDX or UPS to overcome downward earnings
pressure from current global volume and to a lesser extent pricing weakness.
More importantly we believe that DHL's removal from the U.S. market should
lead to a material improvement in pricing for FDX and UPS over time. Below
we estimate that each one percentage point of higher pricing during C09
would equate to about $0.37/share (8% of total EPS) and $0.20/share (6% of
total EPS) for FDX and UPS, respectively. Recently both FDX and UPS have
announced high-end historical Air and Ground list increases beginning
January 2009 and, without DHL in the equation, the opportunity to maintain a
greater % of this increase during C09 than they were able to in C08, despite
the weak economy, could increase.
Our sense is that we are not likely to further reduce our recession C09 FDX
EPS forecasts, however outside of near-term fuel benefits, we don't see much
upside until volumes and pricing begin to improve once again likely some
time in C2H:09.
On our modestly upwardly revised, still recession EPS forecasts, FDX is now
trading at 12.8x and 4.7x forward-rolling P/E and EV/EBITDA. This compares
to its past 1-, 3- and 5-year average forward P/E and EV/EBITDA's of 14.1x,
15.1x and 16.1x and 5.7x, 6.2x and 6.5x and its historical peak and trough
P/E range of 12x-20x. We believe given FDX's on-going risk to its
independent contractor Ground model that it is likely to continue to trade
below historical peak and trough ranges.
Applying a target forward P/E of about 14.5x out 14 months forward to our
then forward, recovering C10 EPS forecast of $5.50 (unchanged), implies a
year-end C09 target price of $80 for FDX. This also implies about a 16x-17x
target peak P/E on our trough C09 EPS forecast of $4.80 compared to
historical Peak forward P/E of about 20x on trough earnings. FDX is now
rated Outperform.
DHL ON THE BRINK. We believe DHL is close to a major withdrawal
from the former Airborne, U.S. Dom. Package business, beyond its prior May
announcement. Within weeks we expect DHL could begin exiting the U.S. ground
business entirely and possibly also the Dom. Air Express business, leaving
itself with basically only import/export express rev., as it was prior to
Airborne in C02.
· FDX AND UPS WOULD BENEFIT. Depending on whether it can resolve the
still pending UPS air linehaul agreement, we believe DHL could either shrink
or remove itself entirely from the intra-U.S. express market. We estimate
DHL is down to roughly $2.6B in total U.S. dom. (ground and air) rev. While
we estimate a total shut down would improve both FDX's and UPS's Dom.
Package vols and EPS in C09 by roughly 3-6% and 3%, DHL's removal could have
a vastly larger long-term positive impact on pricing (see below).
· NEAR-TERM UPSIDE LIKELY, DRIVEN BY FUEL. We estimate that FDX's
EPS should benefit by about $0.40 (27%) y/y from net fuel in F2Q:09 (Nov).
While freight trends continue to weaken, particularly Int'l trends, FDX
should benefit for at least another 2-3 qtrs from lower fuel and our sense
is materially weaker earnings expectations are now discounted in the stock.
Today, we have raised our F2Q EPS forecast from below to above Cons.
· GROUND CONTRACTOR ISSUES CONTINUE, BUT LIKELY DORMANT FOR NEAR
TERM. We continue to believe that the Ground contractor issues that plague
FDX are not likely to go away and that longer term those issues will weigh
on FDX's valuation. However, at 13x our recession model, low-end estimates,
with little news expected on the Contractors until at least 2009, we believe
that risk is priced in.
· RAISING RATING TO OP AND SETTING $80 TARGET. Our $80 year-end C09
TP assumes a 14.5x target forward P/E applied out 14 months from now on our
then forward-year recovering C10 EPS forecast of $5.50. This also equates to
about a 16x-17x peak P/E on our trough C09 EPS forecast of $4.80.
Investment Conclusion
Raising Airfreight & Logistics Sub-Sector Weighting to Market Overweight. In
addition to raising FDX's rating from Peer to Outperform, we are also today
increasing our sector weighting on the Airfreight & Logistics transport
sub-sector from Market Weight to Market Overweight. We have recently
increased our ratings on TNT, CHRW and EXPD to Outperform and we continue to
rate UPS, HUBG and UTIW Outperform. Our other Sector weightings remain
Market Overweight for Rails and Market Underweight for Trucks.
FDX is down about 30% YTD compared to UPS down about 28%, our average
Airfreight & Logistics Index (excluding FDX) down 22% and the S&P 500 down
35%. On October 10th we upgraded FDX from Under to Peer Perform after the
stock declined 13% below our former downside target price of $77. We also
noted that near-term fuel tailwinds and DHL problems could provide near-term
upside. Subsequently last week we moved our group to recession models for
2009 which assume -2% GDP during C1H:09 and 0% growth during C2H:09. At that
time we lowered our F09 EPS forecast for FDX from $5.50 to $4.80 (compared
to current Consensus $5.18) and our C09 EPS forecast from $5.43 to $4.80 and
introduced our C10 estimate of $5.50. Today we are raising our current
November quarter F2Q:09 EPS forecast from $1.40 to $1.50 (compared to
current $1.44 Cons) based on our expectation for FDX to achieve a roughly
$0.40 y/y (27%) net fuel benefit which should more than offset weakening
U.S. and global volumes and yields.
Besides from a likely upside surprise in December when FDX reports, we
expect DHL's likely impending announcement that it is further restructuring
its U.S. domestic operations to serve as a near-term catalyst for FDX and
UPS. While we still believe DHL could finalize its pending contract with UPS
for UPS to provide air linehaul within the U.S., we also see an equally
strong possibility now that DHL just shuts down its domestic operation and
pulls out of the U.S. back to its pre-Airborne 2002 import/export-only days.
Our sense is that DHL is seeing freight diversion from customers faster than
it expected and that if the air linehaul agreement is going to succeed it
will need to be announced shortly. We also believe the value of the air
linehaul agreement which back in May was estimated (by DHL and UPS) at about
$1B in revenue per year to UPS for ten years is likely closer to 25%-50%
lower than that given continued diversion. We do not account for any volume
or profit from the DHL contract in our UPS model, nor do we assume in either
our FDX or UPS model that DHL exits the U.S. domestic package market. Thus
any new restructuring news from DHL would likely provide upside to our
current UPS and FDX expectations.
Below we have estimated the remaining revenue at DHL and how UPS and FDX
might benefit from splitting that revenue if DHL were to leave the U.S.
domestic market. Our sense is that FDX and UPS are increasingly benefitting
from DHL's issues and signing business which will likely start to show up in
their P&L over the next 3-6 months. However, as we display below, DHL's
estimated $2.6B of remaining U.S. domestic revenue would not likely generate
enough profitability during C09 for FDX or UPS to overcome downward earnings
pressure from current global volume and to a lesser extent pricing weakness.
More importantly we believe that DHL's removal from the U.S. market should
lead to a material improvement in pricing for FDX and UPS over time. Below
we estimate that each one percentage point of higher pricing during C09
would equate to about $0.37/share (8% of total EPS) and $0.20/share (6% of
total EPS) for FDX and UPS, respectively. Recently both FDX and UPS have
announced high-end historical Air and Ground list increases beginning
January 2009 and, without DHL in the equation, the opportunity to maintain a
greater % of this increase during C09 than they were able to in C08, despite
the weak economy, could increase.
Our sense is that we are not likely to further reduce our recession C09 FDX
EPS forecasts, however outside of near-term fuel benefits, we don't see much
upside until volumes and pricing begin to improve once again likely some
time in C2H:09.
On our modestly upwardly revised, still recession EPS forecasts, FDX is now
trading at 12.8x and 4.7x forward-rolling P/E and EV/EBITDA. This compares
to its past 1-, 3- and 5-year average forward P/E and EV/EBITDA's of 14.1x,
15.1x and 16.1x and 5.7x, 6.2x and 6.5x and its historical peak and trough
P/E range of 12x-20x. We believe given FDX's on-going risk to its
independent contractor Ground model that it is likely to continue to trade
below historical peak and trough ranges.
Applying a target forward P/E of about 14.5x out 14 months forward to our
then forward, recovering C10 EPS forecast of $5.50 (unchanged), implies a
year-end C09 target price of $80 for FDX. This also implies about a 16x-17x
target peak P/E on our trough C09 EPS forecast of $4.80 compared to
historical Peak forward P/E of about 20x on trough earnings. FDX is now
rated Outperform.
shooter
Call me the Tumblin' Dice
- Joined
- May 13, 2006
- Posts
- 7,941
Okay Bob, do you work for UPS or FedEx? Not that it really matters because both are expanding their global footprint exponentially. With the US being such a high volume international product territory with over 50% of the DHL international product, do you think they will have any customers since their packaged product no longer includes the US domestic deliver network?
This is not the same playing field DHL had 10 years ago. If their intention is to try and "do what they did before the Airborne purchase", do you really think they have a product that can outperform and undercut UPS and FedEx with their growing international presence? My opinion (not worth much) is that they will never be able to compete if that is their plan and will be gone in less than 5 years if they try to go back in time.
They need to re-invent themselves, cut costs and deliver for the customer. Just the reduction in the market has created a mass exodus of very large customer accounts. Not to say they cant win customers back, they can. But to do so they need the product and right now they are eliminating more of it each day. Bunch of bums running the show over there.
This is not the same playing field DHL had 10 years ago. If their intention is to try and "do what they did before the Airborne purchase", do you really think they have a product that can outperform and undercut UPS and FedEx with their growing international presence? My opinion (not worth much) is that they will never be able to compete if that is their plan and will be gone in less than 5 years if they try to go back in time.
They need to re-invent themselves, cut costs and deliver for the customer. Just the reduction in the market has created a mass exodus of very large customer accounts. Not to say they cant win customers back, they can. But to do so they need the product and right now they are eliminating more of it each day. Bunch of bums running the show over there.
Bob Dylan
Well-known member
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- Sep 28, 2007
- Posts
- 369
Hey Shooter. I'm not trying to be offensive. I just thought that the research note today was relevant to the discussion, as it seems to me that this investment house expects DHL to pull out, and even if there is some sort of deal in the works with UPS, it is likely almost 50% smaller.
I honestly don't know what to make of this research note regarding whether the UPS/DHL deal is still on or not.
I think maybe the deal is still on, but it is much smaller, but possibly according to this note, DHL is expected to pull out of the USA in less than 2 weeks.
Is that how you read this?
I honestly don't know what to make of this research note regarding whether the UPS/DHL deal is still on or not.
I think maybe the deal is still on, but it is much smaller, but possibly according to this note, DHL is expected to pull out of the USA in less than 2 weeks.
Is that how you read this?
shooter
Call me the Tumblin' Dice
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Very possible, but I read it as speculation since DHL has lost so many customers. And we really don't know what the details of the UPS agreement were, and thats where the devil is. It takes money for UPS to take aircraft (their old ones parked or new ones to come on line) for this deal to be possible. And I am sure UPS said that is not their problem. So, UPS needs a certain amount of DHL product to make it worth the time and effort of UPS. Lets use 1 million pieces a day as an example. For 1 million pieces (plus) a day the deal costs DHL x amount per piece. We believe that amount to be about $1 billion/year for UPS. Now that there has been a mass exodus of customers say the DHL volume is now 500,000 pieces per day to move on the UPS system. That price should be 2x per piece in order for it be worth while for UPS. Does DHL want to pay 2x now that the customers have gone?
Like I said, it is all speculation since nothing has been revealed. But if I were UPS, that is how I would work the deal to make sure it is worth the money it will cost me. I hope I explained that well.
Fly Astar Jets
Fly ATI Jets
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- Apr 8, 2005
- Posts
- 218
I know this question was not directed toward me, but I'd like to opine.
I don't read this as you do Bob. When this Report refers to a USA "pullout" they are talking about ceasing US ground ops and shedding of domestic only contracts as evident by this statement ( but badly written ) from the report:
"... we also see an equally
strong possibility now that DHL just shuts down its domestic operation and
pulls out of the U.S. back to its pre-Airborne 2002 import/export-only days."
"pulls out of U.S." and "back to it's pre-Airborne 2002" statements are contradicting. Pre-Airborne, DHL operated 40+ aircraft out of CVG in support of it's "import/export-only days". Hardly a non USA presence. A better way to make this statement would be: "...we also see an equally strong possibility now that DHL just shuts down it's domestic only operations and operate as it had done pre-Airborne 2002 import/export-only days.
Now the one billion dollar question for us and UPS is, does DHL operate as it had done pre-Airborne 2002 with it's own air network ( as it had done for 30+ years ) or does it go with farming it out to UPS and lose control of it's product as it does so.
Respectfully,
FAJ
shooter
Call me the Tumblin' Dice
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fodc8
Well-known member
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- Jun 13, 2007
- Posts
- 65
This came out today. Sounds like the deal is changing.
ATLANTA -
UPS Inc.'s third-quarter profit fell nearly 10 percent despite a rise in sales, the world's largest shipping carrier said Thursday as it warned that it faces more challenges ahead, job cuts may be on the horizon and the "scope and the size" of a deal it is working out to carry some packages for rival DHL could change.
UPS also is working out a contract to carry some air packages for DHL, the struggling U.S.-based express shipping unit of German postal service Deutsche Post AG. UPS, when it announced the proposed collaboration on May 28, predicted that the deal, when completed, would add up to $1 billion in annual revenue for the company.
But UPS Chief Executive Scott Davis said Thursday that the impact of the economic downturn and customer reaction to DHL's downsizing in the U.S. could change things.
"The scope and the size of that deal could change," Davis said. He did not elaborate.
UPS hopes to complete its vendor agreement with DHL by the end of the year. The potential deal has drawn criticism from officials in Ohio, where thousands of jobs could be lost if DHL proceeds with its plan to shift business away from its current two air vendors to UPS. Officials at UPS have defended the deal, insisting that it is not a merger and will not lessen competition.
ATLANTA -
UPS Inc.'s third-quarter profit fell nearly 10 percent despite a rise in sales, the world's largest shipping carrier said Thursday as it warned that it faces more challenges ahead, job cuts may be on the horizon and the "scope and the size" of a deal it is working out to carry some packages for rival DHL could change.
UPS also is working out a contract to carry some air packages for DHL, the struggling U.S.-based express shipping unit of German postal service Deutsche Post AG. UPS, when it announced the proposed collaboration on May 28, predicted that the deal, when completed, would add up to $1 billion in annual revenue for the company.
But UPS Chief Executive Scott Davis said Thursday that the impact of the economic downturn and customer reaction to DHL's downsizing in the U.S. could change things.
"The scope and the size of that deal could change," Davis said. He did not elaborate.
UPS hopes to complete its vendor agreement with DHL by the end of the year. The potential deal has drawn criticism from officials in Ohio, where thousands of jobs could be lost if DHL proceeds with its plan to shift business away from its current two air vendors to UPS. Officials at UPS have defended the deal, insisting that it is not a merger and will not lessen competition.
Big Beer Belly
Well-known member
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- Posts
- 756
UPS Releases 3Q Results
UPS today said its third-quarter net income fell to $970 million, or 96 cents a share, from $1.08 billion, or $1.02 a share, from the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, which excludes the impact of the supply chain & freight segment restructuring charge, it earned $1.05 a share. Revenue rose to $13.11 billion from $12.21 billion.
Analysts, on average, expected it to earn 89 cents a share on revenue of $13 billion, according to FactSet Research.
"UPS managed the business well in this very tough economic climate," said Scott Davis, UPS's chairman and CEO (right). "We continue to see growth in our international and supply chain businesses while maintaining our focus on cost control and revenue management throughout our organization. UPS also is investing to ensure growth in the future so that the company will be even stronger when the global economy rebounds."
CFO Kurt Kuehn added, "Based on economic forecasts, we anticipate a challenging environment for a number of quarters going forward. We believe the U.S. consumer will be very conservative with spending this year."
The Company said it still expects 2008 earnings per share should be toward the lower end of the $3.50 to $3.70 a share range that it provided mid-year. Analysts were expecting a profit for the year of $3.57 a share.
UPS today said its third-quarter net income fell to $970 million, or 96 cents a share, from $1.08 billion, or $1.02 a share, from the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, which excludes the impact of the supply chain & freight segment restructuring charge, it earned $1.05 a share. Revenue rose to $13.11 billion from $12.21 billion.
Analysts, on average, expected it to earn 89 cents a share on revenue of $13 billion, according to FactSet Research.
"UPS managed the business well in this very tough economic climate," said Scott Davis, UPS's chairman and CEO (right). "We continue to see growth in our international and supply chain businesses while maintaining our focus on cost control and revenue management throughout our organization. UPS also is investing to ensure growth in the future so that the company will be even stronger when the global economy rebounds."
CFO Kurt Kuehn added, "Based on economic forecasts, we anticipate a challenging environment for a number of quarters going forward. We believe the U.S. consumer will be very conservative with spending this year."
The Company said it still expects 2008 earnings per share should be toward the lower end of the $3.50 to $3.70 a share range that it provided mid-year. Analysts were expecting a profit for the year of $3.57 a share.
Big Beer Belly
Well-known member
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- Nov 5, 2004
- Posts
- 756
Greetings Shooter,
I think DHL will retreat to the "pre Airborne purchase" business model of servicing only import/export volume (i.e., intl only.) I believe they've either stated as much... or definitely telegraphed that message loud and clear. Why that message is being received "muted" or "fuzzy" is unclear to me.
Anecdotal evidence only... but my conversations with a few managers lately indicate UPS is INCREASING volume (at least in certain regions) in the midst of a severe economic downturn. I can only surmise it is former DHL clients abandoning ship. DHL must have anticipated the loss of customers an announcement of this magnitude would entail (switching to UPS) and I believe they are entirely comfortable allowing their domestic business to atrophy to the competition. Their goal is to service import/export only and get out of the ultra-competetive (read: money losing) domestic US market.
I'm sure UPS quickly ascertained that either way they would gain market share and new business. I'm confident UPS (and DHL!) assumed from the beginning of negotiations that DHL's volume would be half (or less) when the negotiations (election) conclude. The "reporters" are just now catching up (what a shock!)
BBB
shooter
Call me the Tumblin' Dice
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- May 13, 2006
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Greetings Shooter,
I think DHL will retreat to the "pre Airborne purchase" business model of servicing only import/export volume (i.e., intl only.) I believe they've either stated as much... or definitely telegraphed that message loud and clear. Why that message is being received "muted" or "fuzzy" is unclear to me.
Anecdotal evidence only... but my conversations with a few managers lately indicate UPS is INCREASING volume (at least in certain regions) in the midst of a severe economic downturn. I can only surmise it is former DHL clients abandoning ship. DHL must have anticipated the loss of customers an announcement of this magnitude would entail (switching to UPS) and I believe they are entirely comfortable allowing their domestic business to atrophy to the competition. Their goal is to service import/export only and get out of the ultra-competetive (read: money losing) domestic US market.
I'm sure UPS quickly ascertained that either way they would gain market share and new business. I'm confident UPS (and DHL!) assumed from the beginning of negotiations that DHL's volume would be half (or less) when the negotiations (election) conclude. The "reporters" are just now catching up (what a shock!)
BBB
Well BBB, it must only be muted or fuzzy to you. The question I have is what their chances of surviving that kind of business move are. My guess is slim to none. Let me grab a quote from your earlier post...
If DHL expects it be just the $300 million loss company it once was, I laugh. Like I stated in an earlier post, this not the market DHL once had 10 - 15 years ago. UPS and FedEx have been growing their international presence strong and to not be in this market but as they once were is so foolish I am at a loss for words (but you can look at the DHL board meeting post for an answer). Since DHL is he77 bent to screw their company no matter which way they give their business away....good luck to everyone this will impact.
EDIT:
Please explain how you think the elections would have any impact for this decision or announcement? The horse is out of the barn, buddy. An election date is just that, a date on the calendar.
Big Beer Belly
Well-known member
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Shooter... you seem a bit testy or perhaps have had a few drinks? :beer:
Either way... here goes... DHL (in spite of your wishes to the contrary) will survive just fine with an import/export only US presence. The majority of their revenue is derived outside the US, though half of it originates/terminates in the US. Your "feelings" not withstanding, DPWN believes they'll prosper just fine under this arrangement.
As far as the election and why I brought that up? You're kidding, right? Please say you're not so naive? It's common knowledge the DHL/UPS agreement has been concluded for some time now. The anti-trust rah-rah crowd and its political hacks can't take a peek until the agreement is formalized. Let's see now... Ohio is infested with enough socialist whack-jobs to make it a "battleground state" (embarrassing but true), so the agreement won't be "announced" till after the election when no one outside Ohio will give a hoot what happens with this vendor change. Comprendo ahora?
Ay caramba!
Buenos Dias Amigo!
BBB
Either way... here goes... DHL (in spite of your wishes to the contrary) will survive just fine with an import/export only US presence. The majority of their revenue is derived outside the US, though half of it originates/terminates in the US. Your "feelings" not withstanding, DPWN believes they'll prosper just fine under this arrangement.
As far as the election and why I brought that up? You're kidding, right? Please say you're not so naive? It's common knowledge the DHL/UPS agreement has been concluded for some time now. The anti-trust rah-rah crowd and its political hacks can't take a peek until the agreement is formalized. Let's see now... Ohio is infested with enough socialist whack-jobs to make it a "battleground state" (embarrassing but true), so the agreement won't be "announced" till after the election when no one outside Ohio will give a hoot what happens with this vendor change. Comprendo ahora?
Ay caramba!
Buenos Dias Amigo!
BBB
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