Thinking out loud on DHL and asking a few QQ's

[shooter]

What do you think the chances of UPS calling up DHL, proposing a deal with no intention of ever going through with it just for DHL to open their book to them?

http://switchnow.ups.com/comparesolutions.html

Wow, did DHL ever screw themselves into a corner with a crazed raccoon.

 

[bukakke]

just shows how desperate and stupid dhl really is, a classic example of "management gone wild"

 

[TWA]

I heard a rumor today that the UPS deal had pretty much been abandoned due to the drastic drop in DHL volume over the past few months. That is just a rumor I heard today, so take it with a pound or so of salt.

This latest batch of UPS advertising does one of two things:
A. Confirms the deal has been abandoned, or
B. Is an attempt to show they are still "vigorously competing in the marketplace".

 

[Bob Dylan]

I don't buy it that UPS double crossed DHL.

DHL volume is already being transported on UPS aircraft. The deal is already completed, and more will be announced after the election.

 

[rotor&wing]

I don't buy it that UPS double crossed DHL.

DHL volume is already being transported on UPS aircraft. The deal is already completed, and more will be announced after the election.

Nice try Rhoid, er Bob.

 

[shooter]

Even if this is just a display of UPS and DHL showing they are still competing, UPS proposed this deal to DHL. So by persuading DHL this is they way should go, DHL is now in a position to be killed off by the UPS "plan" with the UPS products including the international product. With or without UPS carriage of DHL volume, DHL product is so weak they may never survive.

There are so many not up for re-election that are opposed to this deal election day will not figure into the equation. Either its done or its not and election will not delay the announcement if it is done.

 

[Publishers]

There was no great conspiracy theory here. Both sides knew what the other was doing and DHL was looking to save face and money but get out of a market they could not really get into. All we are talking about is are they dead today, or will it take until tomorrow.

 

[shooter]

There was no great conspiracy theory here. Both sides knew what the other was doing and DHL was looking to save face and money but get out of a market they could not really get into. All we are talking about is are they dead today, or will it take until tomorrow.

I will have to disagree with you there. Airborne had a niche third in this market until the Germans came in, bought it and tried to re-invent the wheel (their model was a square one to boot). Had they kept the low cost business niche and expanded it with the DHL international I think they would have had a winner. But spilled milk now, so ppfffttt. I do agree with you that they are done, one way or another. Just waiting for the carcass to stop twitching.

 

[727Niteflyer]

I will have to disagree with you there. Airborne had a niche third in this market until the Germans came in, bought it and tried to re-invent the wheel (their model was a square one to boot). Had they kept the low cost business niche and expanded it with the DHL international I think they would have had a winner. But spilled milk now, so ppfffttt. I do agree with you that they are done, one way or another. Just waiting for the carcass to stop twitching.

Was hete the ceo of airborne express or did he come into the picture after DHL bought Airborne. Just curious. I think the best would be if someone started airborne express back up, and started the low cost package delivery again. I bet with the economy, politics the way they are and how the state of ohio has been treated I would think if airborne started back up their would be alot of support.

 

[erichartmann]

Was hete the ceo of airborne express or did he come into the picture after DHL bought Airborne. Just curious. I think the best would be if someone started airborne express back up, and started the low cost package delivery again. I bet with the economy, politics the way they are and how the state of ohio has been treated I would think if airborne started back up their would be alot of support.

Hete was running ABX Air for Airborne Freight. ABX Air was Airborne Freight's wholly owned subsidiary carrier. The two did business under the trade name of Airborne Express. Airborne, as part of the run up to DHL buying them changed their name to Airborne Express and became a wholly owned subsidiary of Airborne Inc. At that point, ABX Air also became a wholly owned subsidiary of Airborne Inc. The company continued to due business as Airborne Express.

I don't think the money is there to restart the old Airborne, nor do I think Hete wants to, at least not right now. First he has to get rid of the old line ABX crews whom he hates and thinks are making way to much money for way to little work.

 

[splatt]

I think Joe makes way too much $$$ for what little he has accomplished!

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

I don't think the money is there to restart the old Airborne....

I don't either, and that's too bad. Because in a few years, when this economy turns around, the domestic overnight express market will be split between 2 carriers, and historically, that's been bad for the consumer. There will again be a demand for a no-frills, low-cost overnight express package service, similar to what Airborne once offered.

There was a rumor going around a few weeks ago that FedEx might be interested in buying the Wilmington property. If there's any truth to that, it's probably so that Fred Smith could demolish the sort facility and so-preclude any low-cost "competition" in the future.

Let the naysayers laugh at ABX's under-a-buck stock price. We'll see who's still laughing the day TNT or possibly a group of investors from Asia shows up at ILN to walk the property and have a look around....

 

[MountyFlyer]

I think ups or fedex would gobble it up before that would happen. Barriers to entry are pretty high in the US.

 

[727Niteflyer]

when you think bout it, it might take money but all the infrastructure is in place. The wlimington sort is in place with all the equipment and workers. All that would be needed is to pick about a dozen large cities, set up offices and personnel the aircraft are already in place. So that would leave tracking software which aready exists from 3rd party and advertisement.

It would cost alot of money to start but I think it could be easily be done.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

What do you think the chances of UPS calling up DHL, proposing a deal with no intention of ever going through with it just for DHL to open their book to them?

Slim. The sales and marketing staff of both FedEx and UPS are pretty savvy. They each know how much business the other is getting from a potential customer because they've already spoken with that customer and put a bid on that job. And they have a pretty good idea what the other guy is charging by whether or not they got the contract. Load factors aren't like "Colonel Sander's Secret Recipe" that has to be locked in a safe every night. They are what they are.

There would be no reason to risk opening a humongous legal can of worms just to find out what's in DHL's books.