There is no pilot shortage! Sorry. By the way Santa Claus isn't real either.

[MAJICJOHNSON]

ALPA has released a new statement intended to debunk what it calls ?the myth? of a pilot shortage, and publishing a new fact sheet on the employment realities for trained pilots in today?s aviation industry.

I?ve covered the projections by Boeing of demand for 533,000 new pilots needed in the industry by 2020, as well as the announcement of Boeing?s Pilot Development Program in collaboration with Jeppesen?and made mention of a February article which appeared in Flying Magazine and made many of the same points in yesterday?s announcement.

However, the new ALPA announcement presents some interesting additional information.

ALPA attributes the following facts to a recent US Government Accountability Office report indicating there is no current shortage of qualified airline pilots in the United States:

A large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand.
Data on wage earnings and employment growth are not consistent with the existence of an airline pilot shortage.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from 2000-2012 showed that the median weekly earnings of airline pi- lots decreased by 9.5 percent over the period (adjusted for inflation), which is an average decline of 0.8 per- cent per year. Wages would be going up if a shortage existed.
In the context of the 72,000 airline pilot jobs that existed in the United States in 2012, FAA data show there are 137,658 active pilots who currently hold an air transport pilot (ATP) certificate and a first-class medical certifi- cate, and were younger than 65 as of January 20, 2014.
Another 105,000 pilots hold instrument ratings and commercial pilot certificates and could potentially obtain an ATP.
In 2012, the FAA certificated 6,396 new ATPs, and that number is trending upward.
In addition, about 2,400 qualified pilots leave the U.S. military services each year; and mainline airlines, which offer new-hire first officers approximately $48,000 per year, indicated that they have no difficulty attracting qualified pilots.
ALPA once again presents figures on pay scales at US Regional Carriers which are shockingly low:


10 Lowest-Paying Airlines, US/Source: ALPA


Flight: Without Actually Flying

ALPA also points out that the educational investment required, compared to the poor starting wage scales at airlines in the US, are drawing potential pilots away from a career working for an airline into different aviation careers more likely to pay well.

Becoming an airline pilot is an expensive and time-inten- sive undertaking, no matter which path is taken to reach that goal. Many new pilots have invested $150,000 or more in their college aviation education and flight training with the expectation that they will be able to pay off their loans and eventually earn a salary that is commensurate with their education, training, and experience.

Even for students who feel passionate about working
in aviation, other careers for which university aviation program graduates may be qualified offer stronger starting salaries than becoming a pilot. A test engineer ($52,000), an operations manager ($55,000), and a second lieutenant in the U.S. Air Force ($53,616 in salary and allowances) are just a few of the alternatives graduates with aviation degrees have to becoming a professional pilot.

The Growing Expat Pilot Dynamic

Of course, Boeing?s projected growth figures speak to global demand. Boeing predicts that 88,000 new pilots will be needed in the US. It predicts 55,000 demand for new pilots in the Middle East and 216,000 in Asia Pacific. Both of these are regions where, ALPA indicates, ?hundreds of other qualified pilots work abroad? for leading carriers; attracted to working overseas by better compensation packages. Says ALPA of this dynamic:

Many of the pilots working elsewhere would prefer to fly for U.S. airlines were they able to earn compensation commensurate with their aptitude and confident of a long-term career.

Aviation Freakonomics

Under normal supply/demand market conditions, a pilot shortage would be good for pilots?forcing airlines to compete against each other for qualified staff and raising the stakes. However, two and a half key factors prevent this dynamic from taking effect when it comes to commercial airline operations.

1) Economic forces and competitive models at the airlines (spurred by the ongoing passenger demand for cheaper fares), make high wages for pilots (or any other personnel for that matter) unsustainable.

2) Technological advances by the OEMs make it easier for new-entry pilots to train and fly.

2.1) Flying is still an attractive career for many (just for the joy of it) making Boeing?s pilot hatchery an attractive and viable option for airlines? price-picked new recruits. A Boeing spokesperson confirmed to Flight Chic that the Pilot Development Program is focused on airlines and that any fees for training and pre-qualifications are under review. When released, these will be targeted to airlines and focused on those airlines? needs.

UPDATE: According to an AOPA article by Ian J. Twombly:

David Wright, the Pilot Development Program director, said that it is expected to cost roughly $100,000 to $150,000 to train each student. But with much of the rest of the world working on an ab inito basis, airlines will be the customers.

He said that although individual sales may come in the future, airlines are expected to foot the bill. Although Wright said no North American airlines are customers at this point, they are talking and ?the airlines aren?t opposed to it.?

I have not yet been able to independently confirmed this, but have reached out to Boeing for more information on the details of the Pilot Development Program, and will update when that is available either here on in a new post.

I?d welcome your questions or comments, as I take a deeper look into the future of aviation employment.

Featured Image: Capt. Chesley Sullenberger and fellow pilots at the introduction of the ?Safe Skies Act? in the 113th Congress, legislation designed to ensure that America?s cargo plane pilots are sufficiently rested and alert before they fly. Via Senate Democrats Flickr.

 

[pilotyip]

There is an unbelievable shortage at the bottom feeder entry level jobs. And this is the breeder grounds for the next lever of jobs. I look at a long list of pilots who had never flown a jet before they came to JUS and now fly for SWA, FedEx, DAL, NJ, etc. Maybe you don’t need to pay your dues anymore?

 

[T-1GUY]

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from 2000-2012 showed that the median weekly earnings of airline pi- lots decreased by 9.5 percent over the period (adjusted for inflation), which is an average decline of 0.8 per- cent per year. Wages would be going up if a shortage existed.

Yes, let's take the statistics during the worst aviation pilot hiring decade seen in my 25 year career, and use it for the benchmark of pilot hiring. What a bunch of freaking idiots. It's easy to see that ALPA does not have pilots backs. They are in the back pocket of the executive board.

 

[jonjuan]

There is an unbelievable shortage at the bottom feeder entry level jobs. And this is the breeder grounds for the next lever of jobs. I look at a long list of pilots who had never flown a jet before they came to JUS and now fly for SWA, FedEx, DAL, NJ, etc. Maybe you don?t need to pay your dues anymore?

Dues? As long as a 4-year degree is in there, you're good.

 

[DCAA320]

Dues? As long as a 4-year degree is in there, you're good.

Please don't get mr anti-education started, again.

 

[pilotyip]

Please don't get mr anti-education started, again.

you ask for it

I believe I have been consistent. It has been posted that I am anti-college degree. Nothing could is further from the truth. The country needs all the college-educated citizens it can have, its raises the level of knowledge to keep this as the greatest country in the world. Real degrees in business, engineering, the sciences, math, and medicine provide a graduate with marketable skills. If you are going to go to college, get a real degree from a real university. I have said never don?t get a degree, I find the college degrees only crowd here, a bit arrogant, a smacking of if you does not have a degree you are not as good as me. I know too many people who are successful and fine men who do not have a degree, I know many people with degrees who will never make any impact upon anything. I know too many pilots without degrees who I consider some of the most successful people I know. I admire them and the lives they have built. So I bait, about the non-importance of the college degree in this business. I think this sets off the college degree only crowd because it distorts their view of what they have done. Many have posted they agree it has nothing to do with the mastering on an airplane. I have seen too many non-degreed pilots reach a good career position with out a degree.

From the Wall Street Journal about how useless college has become

Next spring, seniors at about 200 U.S. colleges will take a new test that could prove more important to their future than final exams: an SAT-like assessment that aims to cut through grade-point averages and judge students' real value to employers.

A new test for college seniors that aims to be the SAT for prospective employers is the latest blow to the monopoly long-held by colleges and universities on what it means to be well-educated. Doug Belkin and Michael Poliakoff, American Council of Trustees and Alumni V.P. of Policy, discuss on Lunch Break. Photo: AP.

The test, called the Collegiate Learning Assessment, "provides an objective, benchmarked report card for critical thinking skills," said David Pate, dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at St. John Fisher College, a small liberal-arts school near Rochester, N.Y. "The students will be able to use it to go out and market themselves."

The test is part of a movement to find new ways to assess the skills of graduates. Employers say grades can be misleading and that they have grown skeptical of college credentials.

"For too long, colleges and universities have said to the American public, to students and their parents, 'Trust us, we're professional. If we say that you're learning and we give you a diploma it means you're prepared,' " said Michael Poliakoff, vice president of policy for the American Council of Trustees and Alumni. "But that's not true."

The new voluntary test, which the nonprofit behind it calls CLA +, represents the latest threat to the fraying monopoly that traditional four-year colleges have enjoyed in defining what it means to be well educated.

Even as students spend more on tuition?and take on increasing debt to pay for it?they are earning diplomas whose value is harder to calculate. Studies show that grade-point averages, or GPAs, have been rising steadily for decades, but employers feel many new graduates aren't prepared for the workforce.

Meanwhile, more students are taking inexpensive classes such as Massive Open Online Courses, or MOOCs, but have no way to earn a meaningful academic credential from them.

HNTB Corp., a national architectural firm with 3,600 employees, see value in new tools such as the CLA +, said Michael Sweeney, a senior vice president. Even students with top grades from good schools may not "be able to write well or make an argument," he said. "I think at some point everybody has been fooled by good grades or a good resume."

The new test "has the potential to be a very powerful tool for employers," said Ronald Gidwitz, a board member of the Council for Aid to Education, the group behind the test, and a retired chief executive of Helene Curtis, a Chicago-based hair-care company that was bought by Unilever in 1996.

Only one in four employers think that two- and four-year colleges are doing a good job preparing students for the global economy, according to a 2010 survey conducted for the Association of American Colleges and Universities.

Meanwhile, GPAs have been on the rise. A 2012 study looking at the grades of 1.5 million students from 200 four-year U.S. colleges and universities found that the percentage of A's given by teachers nearly tripled between 1940 and 2008. A college diploma is now more a mark "of social class than an indicator of academic accomplishment," said Stuart Rojstaczer, a former Duke University geophysics professor and co-author of the study.

Employers such as General Mills Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co. long have used their own job-applicant assessments. At some companies such as Google Inc., GPAs carry less weight than they once did because they have been shown to have little correlation with job success, said a Google spokeswoman.

At Teach for America, which recruits college students to teach in rural and urban school districts, the GPA is one of just dozens of things used to winnow nearly 60,000 applicants for 5,900 positions. Candidates who make it to the second step of the process are given an in-house exam that assesses higher-order thinking, said Sean Waldheim, vice president of admissions at the group. "We've found that our own problem-solving activities work best to measure the skills we're looking for," he said.

The Council for Aid to Education, the CLA + test's creator, is a New York-based nonprofit that once was part of Rand Corp. The 90-minute exam is based on a test that has been used by 700 schools to grade themselves and improve how well their students are learning.

The CLA + will be open to anyone?whether they are graduating from a four-year university or have taken just a series of MOOCs?and students will be allowed to show their scores to prospective employees. The test costs $35, but most schools are picking up the fee. Among schools that will use CLA + are the University of Texas system, Flagler College in Florida and Marshall University in West Virginia.

The CLA + is scored on the 1600-point scale once used by the SAT "because everyone is familiar with that," said Chris Jackson, director of partner development at the Council for Aid to Education. Instead of measuring subject-area knowledge, it assesses things like critical thinking, analytical reasoning, document literacy, writing and communication.

Cory LaDuke, a 21-year-old senior at St. John Fisher, said he had mixed feelings about taking the CLA + but understood why employers might be skeptical of some graduates because "some people don't work that hard and fake their way through it," he said.

"It kind of sucks that an employer can't trust your GPA, but that's the way it is right now, so this also an opportunity," said Mr. LaDuke. "It's another way to prove yourself."

Other groups also have been seeking ways to better judge graduates' skills. The Lumina Foundation, which aims to boost the number of college graduates, is offering a way to standardize what students should know once they earn a degree. The MacArthur Foundation has helped fund a system of "badges" for online learning to show mastery of certain skills. Last Thursday, President Barack Obama said he wants the federal government to devise a ratings system to gauge colleges' performance based on student outcomes.

Meanwhile, established testing companies are introducing new tools. Earlier this year, Educational Testing Service, which developed the Graduate Record Exam, announced two certificates to reward high marks on its Proficiency Profile, which assesses critical thinking, reading, writing and math.

And ACT, the nonprofit that administers the college-admission exam of the same name, has a National Career Readiness Certificate, which measures skills such as synthesizing and applying information presented graphically.

Educational Testing Service was surprised to learn through a survey last spring that more than a quarter of businesses were using the GRE to evaluate job applicants, said David Payne, an ETS vice president.

Sean Keegan, a 2011 graduate of Tufts University, has posted his GRE on his resume because he landed in the 97th percentile, even though he isn't applying to graduate school. "I think it shows I'm relatively smart," said Mr. Keegan, who is looking for work in finance. "So far, I've gotten a lot of positive feedback from employers."

Write to Douglas Belkin at [email protected]

 

[nordo_2]

you ask for it

I believe I have been consistent. It has been posted that I am anti-college degree. Nothing could is further from the truth. The country needs all the college-educated citizens it can have, its raises the level of knowledge to keep this as the greatest country in the world. Real degrees in business, engineering, the sciences, math, and medicine provide a graduate with marketable skills. If you are going to go to college, get a real degree from a real university. I have said never don?t get a degree, I find the college degrees only crowd here, a bit arrogant, a smacking of if you does not have a degree you are not as good as me. I know too many people who are successful and fine men who do not have a degree, I know many people with degrees who will never make any impact upon anything. I know too many pilots without degrees who I consider some of the most successful people I know. I admire them and the lives they have built. So I bait, about the non-importance of the college degree in this business. I think this sets off the college degree only crowd because it distorts their view of what they have done. Many have posted they agree it has nothing to do with the mastering on an airplane. I have seen too many non-degreed pilots reach a good career position with out a degree.

From the Wall Street Journal about how useless college has become

Next spring, seniors at about 200 U.S. colleges will take a new test that could prove more important to their future than final exams: an SAT-like assessment that aims to cut through grade-point averages and judge students' real value to employers.

A new test for college seniors that aims to be the SAT for prospective employers is the latest blow to the monopoly long-held by colleges and universities on what it means to be well-educated. Doug Belkin and Michael Poliakoff, American Council of Trustees and Alumni V.P. of Policy, discuss on Lunch Break. Photo: AP.

The test, called the Collegiate Learning Assessment, "provides an objective, benchmarked report card for critical thinking skills," said David Pate, dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at St. John Fisher College, a small liberal-arts school near Rochester, N.Y. "The students will be able to use it to go out and market themselves."

The test is part of a movement to find new ways to assess the skills of graduates. Employers say grades can be misleading and that they have grown skeptical of college credentials.

"For too long, colleges and universities have said to the American public, to students and their parents, 'Trust us, we're professional. If we say that you're learning and we give you a diploma it means you're prepared,' " said Michael Poliakoff, vice president of policy for the American Council of Trustees and Alumni. "But that's not true."

The new voluntary test, which the nonprofit behind it calls CLA +, represents the latest threat to the fraying monopoly that traditional four-year colleges have enjoyed in defining what it means to be well educated.

Even as students spend more on tuition?and take on increasing debt to pay for it?they are earning diplomas whose value is harder to calculate. Studies show that grade-point averages, or GPAs, have been rising steadily for decades, but employers feel many new graduates aren't prepared for the workforce.

Meanwhile, more students are taking inexpensive classes such as Massive Open Online Courses, or MOOCs, but have no way to earn a meaningful academic credential from them.

HNTB Corp., a national architectural firm with 3,600 employees, see value in new tools such as the CLA +, said Michael Sweeney, a senior vice president. Even students with top grades from good schools may not "be able to write well or make an argument," he said. "I think at some point everybody has been fooled by good grades or a good resume."

The new test "has the potential to be a very powerful tool for employers," said Ronald Gidwitz, a board member of the Council for Aid to Education, the group behind the test, and a retired chief executive of Helene Curtis, a Chicago-based hair-care company that was bought by Unilever in 1996.

Only one in four employers think that two- and four-year colleges are doing a good job preparing students for the global economy, according to a 2010 survey conducted for the Association of American Colleges and Universities.

Meanwhile, GPAs have been on the rise. A 2012 study looking at the grades of 1.5 million students from 200 four-year U.S. colleges and universities found that the percentage of A's given by teachers nearly tripled between 1940 and 2008. A college diploma is now more a mark "of social class than an indicator of academic accomplishment," said Stuart Rojstaczer, a former Duke University geophysics professor and co-author of the study.

Employers such as General Mills Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co. long have used their own job-applicant assessments. At some companies such as Google Inc., GPAs carry less weight than they once did because they have been shown to have little correlation with job success, said a Google spokeswoman.

At Teach for America, which recruits college students to teach in rural and urban school districts, the GPA is one of just dozens of things used to winnow nearly 60,000 applicants for 5,900 positions. Candidates who make it to the second step of the process are given an in-house exam that assesses higher-order thinking, said Sean Waldheim, vice president of admissions at the group. "We've found that our own problem-solving activities work best to measure the skills we're looking for," he said.

The Council for Aid to Education, the CLA + test's creator, is a New York-based nonprofit that once was part of Rand Corp. The 90-minute exam is based on a test that has been used by 700 schools to grade themselves and improve how well their students are learning.

The CLA + will be open to anyone?whether they are graduating from a four-year university or have taken just a series of MOOCs?and students will be allowed to show their scores to prospective employees. The test costs $35, but most schools are picking up the fee. Among schools that will use CLA + are the University of Texas system, Flagler College in Florida and Marshall University in West Virginia.

The CLA + is scored on the 1600-point scale once used by the SAT "because everyone is familiar with that," said Chris Jackson, director of partner development at the Council for Aid to Education. Instead of measuring subject-area knowledge, it assesses things like critical thinking, analytical reasoning, document literacy, writing and communication.

Cory LaDuke, a 21-year-old senior at St. John Fisher, said he had mixed feelings about taking the CLA + but understood why employers might be skeptical of some graduates because "some people don't work that hard and fake their way through it," he said.

"It kind of sucks that an employer can't trust your GPA, but that's the way it is right now, so this also an opportunity," said Mr. LaDuke. "It's another way to prove yourself."

Other groups also have been seeking ways to better judge graduates' skills. The Lumina Foundation, which aims to boost the number of college graduates, is offering a way to standardize what students should know once they earn a degree. The MacArthur Foundation has helped fund a system of "badges" for online learning to show mastery of certain skills. Last Thursday, President Barack Obama said he wants the federal government to devise a ratings system to gauge colleges' performance based on student outcomes.

Meanwhile, established testing companies are introducing new tools. Earlier this year, Educational Testing Service, which developed the Graduate Record Exam, announced two certificates to reward high marks on its Proficiency Profile, which assesses critical thinking, reading, writing and math.

And ACT, the nonprofit that administers the college-admission exam of the same name, has a National Career Readiness Certificate, which measures skills such as synthesizing and applying information presented graphically.

Educational Testing Service was surprised to learn through a survey last spring that more than a quarter of businesses were using the GRE to evaluate job applicants, said David Payne, an ETS vice president.

Sean Keegan, a 2011 graduate of Tufts University, has posted his GRE on his resume because he landed in the 97th percentile, even though he isn't applying to graduate school. "I think it shows I'm relatively smart," said Mr. Keegan, who is looking for work in finance. "So far, I've gotten a lot of positive feedback from employers."

Write to Douglas Belkin at [email protected]

The military proves as of late, that a college degree combined with an outstanding GPA; Produces an outstanding Pilot.

 

[pilotyip]

The military proves as of late, that a college degree combined with an outstanding GPA; Produces an outstanding Pilot.

I am going to bet that the 4.0 GPA from Bubblebee State in Gender Studies is not producing exactly what hey are looking for, Not all college degrees are created equal, if your college degree does not lead to a job starting in the $50K plus range you have most likely wasted your time in college, not to mention $100K in debt. Which would fit the 47% of recent college graduates with degrees that have no value to prospective employers. For these college grads Starbucks is the level that their college has obtained for them.

As per above college degrees are becoming so common and available without learning anything that some employers are testing graduates to see if they learned anything.

 

[DCAA320]

As per above college degrees are becoming so common and available without learning anything that some employers are testing graduates to see if they learned anything.

If that's the case, what's the problem with getting one instead of making excuses and presenting cases that are the exception, not the rule?

 

[kf4amu]

If that's the case, what's the problem with getting one instead of making excuses and presenting cases that are the exception, not the rule?

The cost? I think he's mentioned that already...