There is a pilot shortage?

[Puttin]

Just curious what all the furloghed and unemployed pilots would think of this statement? And of course anyone else.

"This is the first time in nearly 30 years that there has been an actual pilot shortage in the United States. Yes, 9-11 did have a major impact on the aviation industry. And, yes, some major airlines are in financial trouble – but they were in trouble before 9-11. Stress can be depended upon to “weed out” the weak first. Not well publicized, but important none-the-less is the fact that the healthy air carriers have been adding routes and accelerating the delivery of new airplanes. This is a good sign – it signals a healthy industry." (Dr. Harvey, LCC Flight Tech 12/30/2002)

The whole article can be found at

http://www.lanecc.edu/flight/dhs.htm

 

[i'mbatman]

Since an article like that will get everyone all pissed off lets just all take a second to realize that no matter what aviation is a business....all the ads in the mags are companies trying to make a profit on those that are not that knowledgable.....and this article is no different.

 

[Pistlpetet]

It is all about the $

I agree with Puttin

Colleges and any training facility are all in it for making the $. They spin things for their benifit.

 

[Publishers]

OF COURSE

Of course they spin it for their own benefit. One additional point is that those outside do not necessarily see or talk about things in the same context you as professional pilots do.

Most of these boards tend to rotate around what is happening in the major airlines and in the United States. To people that train pilots or do research on these matters, that pilot job at Airnet is a pilot job just like a 747 captain at United. One in South Africa just like one in Cleveland.

In short, they are talking about two different things.

 

[Simon Says]

Ouch....I went to that school. LCC (Lane Community College) in Eugene, OR. I just sent Dr. Harvey an email with my dissatisfaction of his use of the term Pilot shortage.

 

[bobbysamd]

Lane CC and Pilot Shortage

I heard that Lane CC has a great program. I have a friend who was the FAA POI for the school. She used to rave about it. I wanted to work there.

Bad enough that Kit Darby has made hay for sixteen years as the Pied Piper of the Pilot Shortage. It doesn't surprise me in the least, however, that a member of academia would be so guillable as to swallow that sophistry. What, with ivory towers and all.

It never ceases to amaze me that there's been a pilot shortage for sixteen years. Even during two recessions and two wars (1990-'94 and 2000-present).

I think that Dr. Birdseye needs glasses - or a new Spin Doctor. May I gag now?

PS-This segment from the U.S. Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics website puts a slightly different spin on pilot hiring through 2010 than Dr. Birdseye's. I submit the BLS' research and comments are a tad more objective than Kit or Dr. Birdseye.

Job Outlook

Pilots are expected to face strong competition for jobs through the year 2010. Many qualified persons seek jobs in this occupation because it offers very high earnings, glamour, prestige, and free or low-cost travel benefits. As time passes, some pilots will fail to maintain their qualifications, and the number of applicants competing for each opening should decline. Factors affecting demand, however, are not expected to ease that competition.

Relatively few jobs will be created from rising demand for pilots, even though employment is expected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations through 2010. Expected growth in domestic and international airline passenger and cargo traffic will create a need for more airliners, pilots, and flight instructors. However, computerized flight management systems on new aircraft will continue to eliminate the need for flight engineers on those planes, thus restricting the growth of pilot employment. In addition, the trend toward using larger planes in the airline industry will increase pilot productivity. Future business travel could also be adversely affected by the growing use of teleconferencing, facsimile mail, and electronic communications—such as e-mail—as well as by the elimination of middle management positions in corporate downsizing. Employment of business pilots is expected to grow more slowly than in the past as more businesses opt to fly with regional and smaller airlines serving their area rather than to buy and operate their own aircraft. The number of job openings resulting from the need to replace pilots who retire or leave the occupation traditionally has been very low. Aircraft pilots usually have a strong attachment to their occupation because it requires a substantial investment in specialized training that is not transferable to other fields, and it commonly offers very high earnings. However, many of the pilots who were hired in the late 1960s are approaching the age for mandatory retirement and, thus, several thousand job openings are expected to be generated each year.

Pilots who have logged the greatest number of flying hours in the more sophisticated equipment typically have the best prospects. For this reason, military pilots often have an advantage over other applicants. Job seekers with the most FAA licenses also will have a competitive advantage. Opportunities for pilots in the regional commuter airlines and international service are expected to be more favorable, as these segments are expected to grow faster than other segments of the industry.

Employment of pilots is sensitive to cyclical swings in the economy. During recessions, when a decline in the demand for air travel forces airlines to curtail the number of flights, airlines may temporarily furlough some pilots. Commercial and corporate flying, flight instruction, and testing of new aircraft also decline during recessions, adversely affecting the employment of pilots in those areas.

 

[FlyLawyer]

Dr. Harvey's Subterfuge

By expousing such a dilusional and contorted assessment of the airline industry, Dr. Harvey has no doubt become the laughing stock of aviation academia. Can you imagine the gossip at LCC?

In fact, because the airline industry has been decimated financially, Dr. Harvey has, in effect, also suffered. In essence he is now being ravaged by fear, temporary insanity, irrationality, and dimensia. In other words, because of the horror that this industry has been relegated to endure, Dr. Harvey is now irrational and can no longer cope with everyday life. Please do not laugh or ridicule this man, he needs help.

If this isn't justification for an early disability retirement, I don't know what is. His Section 8 ruse may just work - if he calls me to represent him. No, I couldn't do that - On the other hand.....

 

[100LL... Again!]

Ha! I know what we can do!

Let`s pool our scant resources and create a Counter-Darby organization. We`ll promote NOT going into aviation. Visit schools. Talk about how impossible it is to get a job. Create and atmosphere where students would have to be out of their minds to continue in aviation. We can get ahold of the mailing lists at the big schools and send counter propaganda.

Call our number. It`s not toll free - nothin`s free in this business, kid!


Keep it up long enough, and maybe we can create a pilot shortage.

 

[WhiteCloud]

<Let`s pool our scant resources and create a Counter-Darby organization. We`ll promote NOT going into aviation.>

I know you were joking but wouldn't it be refreshing to see some accurate info in print so that young people could make an informed decision.

 

[Publishers]

Bobby

Bobby, that BLS article you put up is just as bad as the other.

Again, we look at things only in light of the United States big airlines. Obviouisly fractionals, international demand, and many other aspects of aviation have continued to grow.

I happen to think that the use of business aircraft that is mentioned as waning due to more regional aircraft is way off reality. As the economy improves, business aviation will thrive once again.

The comments they made about Flight Engineers is passe and already been a reality for some time. Like I said earlier, you see what Kit and these guys say in the reality of the segment you have an interest in, not in the context of worldwide demand for all kinds of flying.

 

[blzr]

Hey everyone. My captain and I were having this same discussion today from GNV to CLT, and in a Dash-8, that is alot of time to discuss something. Anyway....

What percentage of pilots out there are 55-59? My guess is ALOT. I know that U.S. Air is supre senior. heck, if you were hired after november 1986, you are either retired or on the street. I'm sure that the other majors are very senior as well. There's going to be alot of ATTRITION in the next few years.

Next, how many airlines do yall think will take a hard look at their pension plans, like US AIR did last week, and find out that they have been seriously underfunded? U.S. Air is now in that position to either scrap their retirement system and pay the pilots much less than they expected, or liquidate the company and leave the soon to be retirees with nothing but a slap on the back and some chump change.

Let me know what you think...

Fly Fast... Live Slow

 

[bobbysamd]

But that's not the point, Pub . . . .

Again, we look at things only in light of the United States big airlines. Obviouisly fractionals, international demand, and many other aspects of aviation have continued to grow.

I happen to think that the use of business aircraft that is mentioned as waning due to more regional aircraft is way off reality. As the economy improves, business aviation will thrive once again.

The comments they made about Flight Engineers is passe and already been a reality for some time. Like I said earlier, you see what Kit and these guys say in the reality of the segment you have an interest in, not in the context of worldwide demand for all kinds of flying.

The point I'm trying to make is any pilot shortage should be determined through objective data. I submit that the data upon which the BLS based its article is more objective than Kit's "data" or whatever Dr. Birdseye used when he proclaimed his "pilot shortage." The Bureau of Labor Statistics has no vested interest in skewing the data, quite unlike Kit and perhaps Dr. Birdseye, as evidenced by this segment from his article:

On the drawing board are several new programs intended for those who have completed a two-year program and intend to fly as pilots for a regional carrier. The regional airlines are now flying very sophisticated airplanes. Rapid integration of advanced technology has driven the need for significant changes in procedures. New pilots need to be prepared for the macro-jump from a college pilot training environment to the cockpit of a current generation regional jet. To help our graduates prepare for this transition, new courses are being developed. These courses are designed to prepare pilots for the “glass cockpit” environment and automated systems management.

(emphasis added)

What else could Dr. Birdseye be selling? It is sophisticated Kit Darby, with his position in academia making it appear credible.

I agree, Pub, that non-airline hiring has grown. But it's hard to deny that hiring in all segments of the industry is driven at least in part by airline hiring. So there has to be a linkage between your point and the BLS article.

At least in my 2¢ opinion, Dr. Birdseye is selling pilot shortage to the regional aspirant audience. That audience, of which I was a member at one time, is eager to hear that message. In other words, he is selling "airline" and has buyers. I hope that this audience evaluates his purported shortage against objective data before it swallows what he is saying.

 

[Publishers]

BLS

Was not debating his spin Bobby but BLS is as US thing, not applicable to worldwide demand.

 

[requestdenied]

Technical trainers?

I agree with Bobbysamd's 2 cent opinion. But what I find very disturbing about this article was this part.

Dr. Harvey writes "To meet the need for advanced trainers in our college program, candidates will have an option to complete advanced certificates in the aviation sciences, and advanced certificates as technical trainers".

Now I may be way of base but I think what Dr. Harvey is really saying is that he wants to make his CFI staff "Technical Trainers".
Another way of saying nonpaid interns, actually probably having the CFI's pay the college tuition and fees to work as "Technical Trainers".

Yes, what a great way to save on employee costs and even profit from it.

If my theory is correct, it will be another sad day for future CFI's

Anybody familiar with this school have any comments?

 

[captpetefam]

LCC

When I left LCC in July of 2000, they had a great program with well paid and top notch instructors. In fact, I found LCC's program to be a better one than where I finished my four-year. Now that I am back in the Pac NW, I have considered going back to LCC to work. The only thing it truly lack is a better multi-engine program.

It is deffinately geared to the regionals. You can tell that by the fact that it is a two-year program. Does anyone here have a job with a major and only an Assoc. of Applied Science? Many of their instructors have gone on to Horizon and Sky West.

Before you knock the whole program down for Harvey's comments, think about all the thousands of "educated" people who are members of AIR, Inc. and attend the confrences. Kit and Harvey might be off base, but it brings in the masses.

Good Luck and Blue Side Up.

 

[captpetefam]

Technical Trainers

An after thought to the term Technical Trainers: I had a conversation with Harvey in September and he expressed a lot of interest in training the futures educators. I think what he means by Technical Trainers is not so much unpaid instructors but training career instructors.

 

[requestdenied]

captpetefam

The problem I have with that argument is how many Instructors want to make a career out of Instructing esspecially at under $10,000 a year.

What do I know?

 

[captpetefam]

career instructors

That is true. Instructing at an FBO or some "prestigeous" school on the border of the great white north for $7 per hour doesn't make sense if you want a happy wife someday.

What Harvey spoke of in Sept. when I met with him was about making better instructors of the "stepping stone" type and, mostly, training the ground instructors for the airlines someday. I think he was wanting to make it more of an educators degree so they can carry it into the airlines and be good Airline Instructors.

Blue Side Up ~ Unless your in a 7GCBC.

Captpetefam

 

[Turbojet]

Yes LCC is a great school, I attended there in 88-90 then instructed there from 91-95. Harvey has only been the Director for a few years. Bruce Gustafson is what makes that school as good as it is... I am furloughed United now back at the regionals. This summer we had a "reunion" and I couldn't believe the number of alumni who work for Majors... from my class alone we had United, Southwest, Comair, Mesa, Evergreen, and many corporate.

 

[shweatybalzout]

I do not see how any one could say that their is a pilot shortage with the current conditions of the industry. I graduated from LCC 2 years ago and know that my instructor is still instructing there. I was extreamly disapointed at the fact the school is claiming to train airline pilots and they do not even have a multi-engine airplane. The flight instructor are all good people and best of luck!


Shweatybazout