There is a pilot shortage?

[blzr]

Hey everyone. My captain and I were having this same discussion today from GNV to CLT, and in a Dash-8, that is alot of time to discuss something. Anyway....

What percentage of pilots out there are 55-59? My guess is ALOT. I know that U.S. Air is supre senior. heck, if you were hired after november 1986, you are either retired or on the street. I'm sure that the other majors are very senior as well. There's going to be alot of ATTRITION in the next few years.

Next, how many airlines do yall think will take a hard look at their pension plans, like US AIR did last week, and find out that they have been seriously underfunded? U.S. Air is now in that position to either scrap their retirement system and pay the pilots much less than they expected, or liquidate the company and leave the soon to be retirees with nothing but a slap on the back and some chump change.

Let me know what you think...

Fly Fast... Live Slow

 

[bobbysamd]

But that's not the point, Pub . . . .

Again, we look at things only in light of the United States big airlines. Obviouisly fractionals, international demand, and many other aspects of aviation have continued to grow.

I happen to think that the use of business aircraft that is mentioned as waning due to more regional aircraft is way off reality. As the economy improves, business aviation will thrive once again.

The comments they made about Flight Engineers is passe and already been a reality for some time. Like I said earlier, you see what Kit and these guys say in the reality of the segment you have an interest in, not in the context of worldwide demand for all kinds of flying.

The point I'm trying to make is any pilot shortage should be determined through objective data. I submit that the data upon which the BLS based its article is more objective than Kit's "data" or whatever Dr. Birdseye used when he proclaimed his "pilot shortage." The Bureau of Labor Statistics has no vested interest in skewing the data, quite unlike Kit and perhaps Dr. Birdseye, as evidenced by this segment from his article:

On the drawing board are several new programs intended for those who have completed a two-year program and intend to fly as pilots for a regional carrier. The regional airlines are now flying very sophisticated airplanes. Rapid integration of advanced technology has driven the need for significant changes in procedures. New pilots need to be prepared for the macro-jump from a college pilot training environment to the cockpit of a current generation regional jet. To help our graduates prepare for this transition, new courses are being developed. These courses are designed to prepare pilots for the “glass cockpit” environment and automated systems management.

(emphasis added)

What else could Dr. Birdseye be selling? It is sophisticated Kit Darby, with his position in academia making it appear credible.

I agree, Pub, that non-airline hiring has grown. But it's hard to deny that hiring in all segments of the industry is driven at least in part by airline hiring. So there has to be a linkage between your point and the BLS article.

At least in my 2¢ opinion, Dr. Birdseye is selling pilot shortage to the regional aspirant audience. That audience, of which I was a member at one time, is eager to hear that message. In other words, he is selling "airline" and has buyers. I hope that this audience evaluates his purported shortage against objective data before it swallows what he is saying.

 

[Publishers]

BLS

Was not debating his spin Bobby but BLS is as US thing, not applicable to worldwide demand.

 

[requestdenied]

Technical trainers?

I agree with Bobbysamd's 2 cent opinion. But what I find very disturbing about this article was this part.

Dr. Harvey writes "To meet the need for advanced trainers in our college program, candidates will have an option to complete advanced certificates in the aviation sciences, and advanced certificates as technical trainers".

Now I may be way of base but I think what Dr. Harvey is really saying is that he wants to make his CFI staff "Technical Trainers".
Another way of saying nonpaid interns, actually probably having the CFI's pay the college tuition and fees to work as "Technical Trainers".

Yes, what a great way to save on employee costs and even profit from it.

If my theory is correct, it will be another sad day for future CFI's

Anybody familiar with this school have any comments?

 

[captpetefam]

LCC

When I left LCC in July of 2000, they had a great program with well paid and top notch instructors. In fact, I found LCC's program to be a better one than where I finished my four-year. Now that I am back in the Pac NW, I have considered going back to LCC to work. The only thing it truly lack is a better multi-engine program.

It is deffinately geared to the regionals. You can tell that by the fact that it is a two-year program. Does anyone here have a job with a major and only an Assoc. of Applied Science? Many of their instructors have gone on to Horizon and Sky West.

Before you knock the whole program down for Harvey's comments, think about all the thousands of "educated" people who are members of AIR, Inc. and attend the confrences. Kit and Harvey might be off base, but it brings in the masses.

Good Luck and Blue Side Up.

 

[captpetefam]

Technical Trainers

An after thought to the term Technical Trainers: I had a conversation with Harvey in September and he expressed a lot of interest in training the futures educators. I think what he means by Technical Trainers is not so much unpaid instructors but training career instructors.

 

[requestdenied]

captpetefam

The problem I have with that argument is how many Instructors want to make a career out of Instructing esspecially at under $10,000 a year.

What do I know?

 

[captpetefam]

career instructors

That is true. Instructing at an FBO or some "prestigeous" school on the border of the great white north for $7 per hour doesn't make sense if you want a happy wife someday.

What Harvey spoke of in Sept. when I met with him was about making better instructors of the "stepping stone" type and, mostly, training the ground instructors for the airlines someday. I think he was wanting to make it more of an educators degree so they can carry it into the airlines and be good Airline Instructors.

Blue Side Up ~ Unless your in a 7GCBC.

Captpetefam

 

[Turbojet]

Yes LCC is a great school, I attended there in 88-90 then instructed there from 91-95. Harvey has only been the Director for a few years. Bruce Gustafson is what makes that school as good as it is... I am furloughed United now back at the regionals. This summer we had a "reunion" and I couldn't believe the number of alumni who work for Majors... from my class alone we had United, Southwest, Comair, Mesa, Evergreen, and many corporate.

 

[shweatybalzout]

I do not see how any one could say that their is a pilot shortage with the current conditions of the industry. I graduated from LCC 2 years ago and know that my instructor is still instructing there. I was extreamly disapointed at the fact the school is claiming to train airline pilots and they do not even have a multi-engine airplane. The flight instructor are all good people and best of luck!


Shweatybazout