whatfuelpolicy
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Posts
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Opinion Article
PASSENGER PLANES SIT IDLE BECAUSE NO PILOTS WANT TO FLY THEM.
PILOT SHORTAGE is a CAUSE for change.
What is happening in the Airline Industry? There are no pilots to fly those multi-million dollar airplanes. Pilots, including wannabe pilots, are changing careers. They are not choosing a professional flying career because economically it is not feasible.
Airline Transport Pilot Certificates issued from 1996 – 2005 have steadily declined from about 7,500 a year to 4,750 in 2005 an almost 40% decrease in qualified Captains. This is creating a Qualified Airline Pilot shortage, and a few things can happen.
WHAT AIRLINES WILL NOT DO
Pay higher salaries.
As a passenger, I was a little discouraged to know that my Captain, First Officer and Flight attendants (Who are responsible for my life from Point A to Point B) are worth only a few sheckles of the ticket price I paid. That’s right, they are paid $18.00-$20.00/hr. And to make matters worse, they are restricted by the FAA to a maximum of 1,000 of work a year. Many can legally apply for food stamps.
Now imagine if Demand remained the same and the supply (meaning there were no pilots to fly those planes) ended for two weeks. Eventually, airlines would pay higher salaries, benefits, etc. in order to take advantage of the increasing demand.
WHAT AIRLINES WILL TRY TO DO
1) The airlines will continue to reduce costs anyway possible. They will spend money on lobbyist groups in Washington D.C. to relax rule making against them.
What does that mean in the future? Fewer pilots for the airlines due to less pilot starts because of prohibitively high costs to entry. This decision by the airlines will only compound their “pilot shortage” problems, cost problems, efficiency problems, management problems, etc.
2) Airlines will reduce minimums. Pilot minimums will become lower and lower until the new SIC will sit right seat in a 250 person passenger jet with only 250 hours of experience. This individual will have been trained to so-called airline standards; however, he/she will have never soloed in ANY plane. It’s being proposed abroad because of the lack of numbers of qualified pilots to fill vacancies.
The airlines are forced to do this, because they do not want to increase wages for their frontline employees, those responsible for the safety of millions of air travelers yearly. They are trying to entice pilots with anything except respectable salaries. Here are just some examples.
3). Airlines will be forced to hire and retain “SUBPAR” Employees. Those that lack the skill, quality, efficiency and know-how of what it takes to be in the airline business. They will force themselves to not “Fire” or “Terminate” employment of those in violation of rules or policies. They can’t afford to eliminate workers, because they are so short staffed, and cannot fill vacancies with current employee policies, wage contracts, etc. This leads to settling for marginal performance which will begin the complete degradation of the airline industry and experience in the United States.
4) Airlines will try to consolidate and/or split. They will do this to
a) Ensure favorable long term contracts. (SkyWest merger with ASA) and to reduce air transport supply in the market place (thus pseudo increasing the number of pilots available to fly the fewer planes). Airlines will then be able to charge higher fees for the increased demand that is present. However, if they are too aggressive too much consolidation could create transportation substitution alternatives. (Bus, train, private planes, etc.)
b) Cut costs. They will try starting new companies in order to bypass labor union strangleholds against a company lowering wages (Go Jets/Trans States and Mesaba/NWA/Compass Airlines to name a few).
OVERSEAS COMPETITION
Many overseas airlines are hiring US pilots at far greater wages, they include free housing, no taxes, allowance for a car, etc. It's happening already. And U.S Airlines are NOT reacting; they are not going on the offensive to retain pilots with better wages, QOL, benefits, etc. They are trying to trim fat where fat doesn't exist, change regulations, merge, and do all sorts of other things instead paying an acceptable wage and focus on GROWING the business.
It’s ironic. US companies have been outsourcing cheap labor in foreign markets for decades; now these foreign markets are employing our skilled labor at far greater compensation than can be obtained in the United States.
WHAT PILOTS MAY, WILL or SHOULD DO
Leave the Industry or Country. Massive pilot fleeing helps to reduce supply of those able to operate planes. Captains, both Junior and Senior will flee to where their time invested will provide them with a greater dollar reward and better QOL. As Captains flee, FO’s will welcome the short term increase in salary until they feel compelled to leave as well. It’s happening already in the industry. If the economies of scale are greater and the opportunity cost is lower for NOT being a pilot, an outflow will happen causing massive dollars to be lost by airlines not being able to provide enough supply for demand. The Pilot’s unwillingness to settle for poverty wage will eventually force airlines to 1) Pay more or 2) Reduce qualifications or 3) Go out of business.
WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL DO
The public will continue to fly. The public stops flying when cost becomes to probative or when SAFETY is compromised (like 9/11).
WHAT THE U.S GOVT. WILL DO
If the airlines fail to entice pilots to work through higher salaries, QOL, benefits, pensions etc., you can bet that the govt. will mandate to airlines to provide MINIMUM salaries for pilots OR they will provide supplemental assistance (subsidies) to companies or pilot groups in order restore transportation and promote the “economic need, welfare and desire” for the pilot/individual to choose a career in aviation.
1) The government has already guaranteed airline pensions. They bailed out the airlines because the airlines are incapable to bail themselves out.
2) The airline lobby group is so strong that they just relaxed the pilot age requirement from 60 to 65. Here is a very current real time example of how Govt. is getting involved today. This will offset the pilot shortage by about 3,800 over the next 5 years. Just a small amount, but enough to cause a slight worry for all on how strong the airline lobby is.
3) In addition, the FAA needs to hire over 15,000 controllers during the next 8-10 years. The starting salary for new controllers is greater than those of airline pilots and the benefits package is far superior to any airline. For many, a choice in controlling may outweigh what the choice of being a pilot. http://www.thetracon.com/atcjobs.htm
WHAT THE NEWS MEDIA COULD DO
The news media might do well spending more time talking about potential outcomes of a “Pilot shortage” and “Low Wages” as well as the “Severe Safety Concerns” of these Low Time pilots with extremely new decision making skills.
In addition, the public assumes pilots are well paid. They don't know that many pilots NEED to have part-time jobs to supplement their income. The public doesn’t know that many pilots are too tired to fly because they have to work extra jobs. The public doesn’t know they are at risk.
Pilots and the Airlines know what conditions are currently like, and how those conditions affect each. However, the public and government don’t know or care at this point, because everything is moving along smoothly. That is because it isn’t an issue for them now. It is only an issue when it affects them OR when they know it MIGHT affect them. We now have the recent Jet Blue debacle showcased by the media. The public (consumer) is now demanding change.
PASSENGER PLANES SIT IDLE BECAUSE NO PILOTS WANT TO FLY THEM.
PILOT SHORTAGE is a CAUSE for change.
What is happening in the Airline Industry? There are no pilots to fly those multi-million dollar airplanes. Pilots, including wannabe pilots, are changing careers. They are not choosing a professional flying career because economically it is not feasible.
Airline Transport Pilot Certificates issued from 1996 – 2005 have steadily declined from about 7,500 a year to 4,750 in 2005 an almost 40% decrease in qualified Captains. This is creating a Qualified Airline Pilot shortage, and a few things can happen.
WHAT AIRLINES WILL NOT DO
Pay higher salaries.
As a passenger, I was a little discouraged to know that my Captain, First Officer and Flight attendants (Who are responsible for my life from Point A to Point B) are worth only a few sheckles of the ticket price I paid. That’s right, they are paid $18.00-$20.00/hr. And to make matters worse, they are restricted by the FAA to a maximum of 1,000 of work a year. Many can legally apply for food stamps.
Now imagine if Demand remained the same and the supply (meaning there were no pilots to fly those planes) ended for two weeks. Eventually, airlines would pay higher salaries, benefits, etc. in order to take advantage of the increasing demand.
WHAT AIRLINES WILL TRY TO DO
1) The airlines will continue to reduce costs anyway possible. They will spend money on lobbyist groups in Washington D.C. to relax rule making against them.
What does that mean in the future? Fewer pilots for the airlines due to less pilot starts because of prohibitively high costs to entry. This decision by the airlines will only compound their “pilot shortage” problems, cost problems, efficiency problems, management problems, etc.
2) Airlines will reduce minimums. Pilot minimums will become lower and lower until the new SIC will sit right seat in a 250 person passenger jet with only 250 hours of experience. This individual will have been trained to so-called airline standards; however, he/she will have never soloed in ANY plane. It’s being proposed abroad because of the lack of numbers of qualified pilots to fill vacancies.
The airlines are forced to do this, because they do not want to increase wages for their frontline employees, those responsible for the safety of millions of air travelers yearly. They are trying to entice pilots with anything except respectable salaries. Here are just some examples.
3). Airlines will be forced to hire and retain “SUBPAR” Employees. Those that lack the skill, quality, efficiency and know-how of what it takes to be in the airline business. They will force themselves to not “Fire” or “Terminate” employment of those in violation of rules or policies. They can’t afford to eliminate workers, because they are so short staffed, and cannot fill vacancies with current employee policies, wage contracts, etc. This leads to settling for marginal performance which will begin the complete degradation of the airline industry and experience in the United States.
4) Airlines will try to consolidate and/or split. They will do this to
a) Ensure favorable long term contracts. (SkyWest merger with ASA) and to reduce air transport supply in the market place (thus pseudo increasing the number of pilots available to fly the fewer planes). Airlines will then be able to charge higher fees for the increased demand that is present. However, if they are too aggressive too much consolidation could create transportation substitution alternatives. (Bus, train, private planes, etc.)
b) Cut costs. They will try starting new companies in order to bypass labor union strangleholds against a company lowering wages (Go Jets/Trans States and Mesaba/NWA/Compass Airlines to name a few).
OVERSEAS COMPETITION
Many overseas airlines are hiring US pilots at far greater wages, they include free housing, no taxes, allowance for a car, etc. It's happening already. And U.S Airlines are NOT reacting; they are not going on the offensive to retain pilots with better wages, QOL, benefits, etc. They are trying to trim fat where fat doesn't exist, change regulations, merge, and do all sorts of other things instead paying an acceptable wage and focus on GROWING the business.
It’s ironic. US companies have been outsourcing cheap labor in foreign markets for decades; now these foreign markets are employing our skilled labor at far greater compensation than can be obtained in the United States.
WHAT PILOTS MAY, WILL or SHOULD DO
Leave the Industry or Country. Massive pilot fleeing helps to reduce supply of those able to operate planes. Captains, both Junior and Senior will flee to where their time invested will provide them with a greater dollar reward and better QOL. As Captains flee, FO’s will welcome the short term increase in salary until they feel compelled to leave as well. It’s happening already in the industry. If the economies of scale are greater and the opportunity cost is lower for NOT being a pilot, an outflow will happen causing massive dollars to be lost by airlines not being able to provide enough supply for demand. The Pilot’s unwillingness to settle for poverty wage will eventually force airlines to 1) Pay more or 2) Reduce qualifications or 3) Go out of business.
WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL DO
The public will continue to fly. The public stops flying when cost becomes to probative or when SAFETY is compromised (like 9/11).
WHAT THE U.S GOVT. WILL DO
If the airlines fail to entice pilots to work through higher salaries, QOL, benefits, pensions etc., you can bet that the govt. will mandate to airlines to provide MINIMUM salaries for pilots OR they will provide supplemental assistance (subsidies) to companies or pilot groups in order restore transportation and promote the “economic need, welfare and desire” for the pilot/individual to choose a career in aviation.
1) The government has already guaranteed airline pensions. They bailed out the airlines because the airlines are incapable to bail themselves out.
2) The airline lobby group is so strong that they just relaxed the pilot age requirement from 60 to 65. Here is a very current real time example of how Govt. is getting involved today. This will offset the pilot shortage by about 3,800 over the next 5 years. Just a small amount, but enough to cause a slight worry for all on how strong the airline lobby is.
3) In addition, the FAA needs to hire over 15,000 controllers during the next 8-10 years. The starting salary for new controllers is greater than those of airline pilots and the benefits package is far superior to any airline. For many, a choice in controlling may outweigh what the choice of being a pilot. http://www.thetracon.com/atcjobs.htm
WHAT THE NEWS MEDIA COULD DO
The news media might do well spending more time talking about potential outcomes of a “Pilot shortage” and “Low Wages” as well as the “Severe Safety Concerns” of these Low Time pilots with extremely new decision making skills.
In addition, the public assumes pilots are well paid. They don't know that many pilots NEED to have part-time jobs to supplement their income. The public doesn’t know that many pilots are too tired to fly because they have to work extra jobs. The public doesn’t know they are at risk.
Pilots and the Airlines know what conditions are currently like, and how those conditions affect each. However, the public and government don’t know or care at this point, because everything is moving along smoothly. That is because it isn’t an issue for them now. It is only an issue when it affects them OR when they know it MIGHT affect them. We now have the recent Jet Blue debacle showcased by the media. The public (consumer) is now demanding change.
