The bell tolls for AA

[scoreboardII]

And thats my point. AA has retrenched and is unable to support their current network on a cost bases, even if the pilots work for free.

 

[LearLove]

I don't know about you guys but my fear in this is that in CH11 (or even without 11) the AA guys agree to farm out 100 seaters. If that happens the rest of us at the bottom of DAL, UAL/CAL, AAA and even JB/SWA/Spirit will be in big jeopardy.

And BB (along with Mesa ans Skywest) is just chomping at the bit to find a place for his 190's and even grow that size fleet.

At that point the bottom 30 to 50% of each major's seniority list can kiss their career goodbye.

 

[Deli Guy]

I don't know about you guys but my fear in this is that in CH11 (or even without 11) the AA guys agree to farm out 100 seaters. If that happens the rest of us at the bottom of DAL, UAL/CAL, AAA and even JB/SWA/Spirit will be in big jeopardy.

And BB (along with Mesa ans Skywest) is just chomping at the bit to find a place for his 190's and even grow that size fleet.

At that point the bottom 30 to 50% of each major's seniority list can kiss their career goodbye.

And THEN....fast forward a few years:
"Economy...fuel....SARS....global conflict......cold sores....(fill in the blank), so that is why we desperately need to have SCOPE relief on 150 seat flying"

 

[Flopgut]

I don't know about you guys but my fear in this is that in CH11 (or even without 11) the AA guys agree to farm out 100 seaters. If that happens the rest of us at the bottom of DAL, UAL/CAL, AAA and even JB/SWA/Spirit will be in big jeopardy.

And BB (along with Mesa ans Skywest) is just chomping at the bit to find a place for his 190's and even grow that size fleet.

At that point the bottom 30 to 50% of each major's seniority list can kiss their career goodbye.

FWIW, more than 50% of these pilot groups list's understand this, so that sort of event will more than likely include work actions. If these regional pilots want to do it they are going on a scab list. Probably not the deterent it once was, but we'll see...

 

[OurMoney1]

They will drive this thing into CH 11 by years end.

They will gut labor.

They will filet scope.

They will blow the doors off of codeshare agreements.

They may be at a disadvantage now having not declared BK but they now are at a huge advantage because they will seek a post AA BK that undermines everyones current business plan.

Scary times....I agree UAL/DAL/LUV are gonna have a new 800 pound gorilla to deal with.

 

[rudder]

They will drive this thing into CH 11 by years end.

They will gut labor.

They will filet scope.

They will blow the doors off of codeshare agreements.

They may be at a disadvantage now having not declared BK but they now are at a huge advantage because they will seek a post AA BK that undermines everyones current business plan.

Scary times....I agree UAL/DAL/LUV are gonna have a new 800 pound gorilla to deal with.

I disagree.

If there is a CH11 filing then it will not necessarily mean a blank cheque for mgmnt. Any labour comparison will be based on benchmarking and it is unlikely that a new lower bar will flow out of the court process.

However, the uncertainty reinforces that instead of acting as victims that the AA pilots should be acting proactively in engaging with potential equity sponsors in framing the business plan that will be submitted to the court.

Notably excluded from this discussion? Incumbent senior management and the incumbent AMR BOD. Hasta la vista

 

[scoreboardII]

SWA would love to go against nothing but RJ's, they kick their CASM every leg, every day, all day long.

 

[scoreboardII]

I
At that point the bottom 30 to 50% of each major's seniority list can kiss their career goodbye.

Not if they play the cards right and demand to fly those very jets themselves.

 

[LearLove]

SWA would love to go against nothing but RJ's, they kick their CASM every leg, every day, all day long.

50 and 70 seaters for sure but against 100 to 115(ish) seats - I'd like to see those numbers.

 

[OurMoney1]

SWA would love to go against nothing but RJ's, they kick their CASM every leg, every day, all day long.

Something tells me an AA BK would reduce their dependency significantly on the RJ fleet. I see them leaning themselves out significantly.

 

["TheBigPicture"]

FWIW, more than 50% of these pilot groups list's understand this, so that sort of event will more than likely include work actions. If these regional pilots want to do it they are going on a scab list. Probably not the deterent it once was, but we'll see...

No it's not, because people like you throw it around at the drop of a hat...are you actually serious??

 

[satpak77]

do the AA folks think Ch.11 is the real deal this time around ?

 

[tathagatha]

I think Ch11 in this financial environment will be different. There is not a lot of banks willing to risk business loans to good creditors let alone bankrupt ones...

 

[altimaklr]

Chapter 11 is very dangerous now. It is not the same as when Delta did it. The company must now convince their creditors that they can make more money as a business than creditors can get from selling assets.

Take a look at what happened with the Borders Bookstore bankruptcy. They tried to salvage the company by selling unprofitable stores and still couldn't make it work.

A likely scenario would be creditors liquidating 777/738's and using the remaining cash balance to cover unsecured assets as much as possible.

 

[scoreboardII]

Looking at AMR's numbers:

Balance sheet:

$4B in cash
$11B in debt
Book value per share a negative $14.40

Income:

EPS is negative at -$2.93


Price to book: N/A

Lots of bad numbers here.

 

[LongBeachTrijet]

FWIW, more than 50% of these pilot groups list's understand this, so that sort of event will more than likely include work actions. If these regional pilots want to do it they are going on a scab list. Probably not the deterent it once was, but we'll see...

The only way anyone will be put on a scab list is if they cross a picket line during a strike and that's the way it should remain. Anything else is just diluting the definition of the word and none of us needs that. Ironically, you say that the idea of being listed as a scab is probably not the deterrent it once was, but watering down the definition is one of the very things that makes it less effective.

 

[Flopgut]

Yeah. I know a lot of guys don't like to see the scab word thrown around these days. It's starting to hit pretty close to home.

Have any of you actually looked a the definition of the word? Do you think the narrow and convenient way we apply the term to behavior in aviation is correct?

APA or CAL/UAL ALPA turns into a work action? This will get messy...

 

[Flyby1206]

Lets pretend APA accepts and ratifies whatever proposal AA puts on the table. AMR still has to go through the entire process with the TWU and APFA. If anyone was willing to go on strike I bet it would be the FAs. Getting a contract with APA doesnt mean they are out of the woods yet.

 

[slaquer5]

Yeah. I know a lot of guys don't like to see the scab word thrown around these days. It's starting to hit pretty close to home.

Have any of you actually looked a the definition of the word? Do you think the narrow and convenient way we apply the term to behavior in aviation is correct?

APA or CAL/UAL ALPA turns into a work action? This will get messy...

Am I missing something? I really do not understand who or what you want to call a scab. AA, UAL , DAL Allowed scope. What are you upset about? Mgt. would just be doing what was given to them. Hell GL/OY6 think scope is great, it allows the RJ to fly where they do not want to go.

This is not flame bait, I am just very confused as to why you would call a Regional guy a scab?

 

[Flopgut]

The only way anyone will be put on a scab list is if they cross a picket line during a strike and that's the way it should remain.

So if there was some struck work out there, it would be ok to fly it?

 

[Flopgut]

This is not flame bait, I am just very confused as to why you would call a Regional guy a scab?

CAL pilots didn't sign off on Skywest getting our flying. Just because we're merging with UAL doesn't mean they get to either. We had to go to arbitration to defend it, and we did. Now, there was no shortage of regional (and other) pilots who were sure that CAL would lose the arbitration because they feel entitled to take our flying. Right now, mgt wants to hurry up and get a SOC so they can term ALL flying as "UAL" and resume violating my contract. And again, there are no shortage of those pilots set to benefit, who agree with mgt. We will go back to arbitration if we have to. And if we win this time, because we are in contract talks and mgt has done just about everything you can to cause a strike, it could happen.

So I guess I'm confused. Are you saying it ought to be ok for a pilot to do my work if I'm on strike?

 

[Sherpa]

I don't think many pilots join the regional ranks with that being their career goal. With a bad economy and the age 65 rule the progress towards a major has been fairly stagnant and scope relief only delays movement towards a professional career in the majors or cargo, etc. Most regional pilots (I know this is an assumption but common...) don't want scope relief and they probably would like to get a seniority number going after theirs is nullified in the slog to the majors.

Scope isn't good for any pilot with career aspirations.

 

[slaquer5]

CAL pilots didn't sign off on Skywest getting our flying. Just because we're merging with UAL doesn't mean they get to either. We had to go to arbitration to defend it, and we did. Now, there was no shortage of regional (and other) pilots who were sure that CAL would lose the arbitration because they feel entitled to take our flying. Right now, mgt wants to hurry up and get a SOC so they can term ALL flying as "UAL" and resume violating my contract. And again, there are no shortage of those pilots set to benefit, who agree with mgt. We will go back to arbitration if we have to. And if we win this time, because we are in contract talks and mgt has done just about everything you can to cause a strike, it could happen.

So I guess I'm confused. Are you saying it ought to be ok for a pilot to do my work if I'm on strike?

Flop

No way do I think it is right for anyone to do ur flying if u strike

I thought mgt was shifting flying from Ual over to cal.?

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

 

[xjhawk]

Dan R, Gup, and The General-make this threat classy and show what fellow pilots should think of other pilots careers-while others show the bad side and are drooling at other pilots airlines tough times. Some show class, while others show their true side.

 

[Flopgut]

Flop

No way do I think it is right for anyone to do ur flying if u strike

I thought mgt was shifting flying from Ual over to cal.?

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

Mgt is moving all kinds of flying around. They are negotiating in extraordinarily bad faith, and overall conducting themselves like they are working for Lorenzo. They ignore the arbitrator and the mediator. All the ingredients are in place for a strike at the new UAL. All the same goes for American IMHO. I don't think its too soon to manage expectations and aire a bit of social enforcement.

 

[Draginass]

There is zero chance that the APA will ever send a scope-gutting TA to the membership and management knows it.

And there's even a less than zero chance that if they did, it would pass.

 

[Twisted Mind]

there are no shortage of those pilots set to benefit, who agree with mgt.

What you are saying is it is OK for you to screw them over, but not ok for them to screw you over.

 

[Twisted Mind]

Draginass,

What would happen if management said the senior pilots at AA can keep their pensions if they give up 100 seat scope. I think it would pass very quickly.

 

[tomgoodman]

What would happen if management said the senior pilots at AA can keep their pensions if they give up 100 seat scope.

How many pilots, senior or junior, would believe such a promise by management? Bankruptcy's whole purpose is the legal breaking of promises.

 

[Juniority]

Bankruptcy's whole purpose is the legal breaking of promises.

This statement is very true of bankruptcy's recent history (last 10 years or so).

While bankruptcy used to mean the death/dismemberment of a company, during the late '90s and through the first decade of the 2000s it turned into a one-sided game with management holding the upper hand. The financial realities (unrealities?) of that decade somehow changed bankruptcy into a relatively safe management shellgame of screwing old investors while simultaneously lining up an eager new group of investors.

What the labor groups thought or did in these circumstances just wasn't an important consideration to management.

Maybe in the current finacial environment, where there's not tons of crazy money being thrown around by investors who can't imagine any downside, bankruptcy will again become a serious matter for management.