The Amazing Kreskin

[gutshotdraw]

Okay folks, as others have posted before, we've beaten all the dead horses in the Netjets fight pretty thoroughly. Since this is a message board for aviation interviews, those aviators out there not already part of this travelling minstrel show might be interested in some predictions in order to make their career choices more informed ones.

And since computer data lasts a long time (unless the web site crashes), it might be fun to make some predictions now that we can all review a year from now to find out who was right and who was, um, wrong.

As I have posted before, I hocked my crystal ball when USAir survived but I'm willing to pay off the pawnbroker and polish it up for another try.

1. At a time of the company's choosing, management will ask the National Mediation Board for a new round of mediated talks. At that time, management will ask the mediator for binding arbitration. The union will immediately reject binding arbitration.

2. Under the terms of the RLA, the mediator will then declare an impasse and start the clock running on the 30 day cooling off period. A strike vote having already been authorized by the membership, a strike will begin at 12:01 AM the day after the cooling off period expires.

3. Having prepared for this day for months, management will shift as much work as possible to third party contractors and hire and train as many replacement employees as possible as quickly as possible to maintain a reduced but adequate flight schedule. A small number of regular employees will agree to cross the picket line and return to work.

4. After a few weeks of difficult but workable operations, the company will make one last offer to the union to return to work under the company's wage and benefit proposal (as required by the RLA). The union leadership will refuse the offer indicating they would rather see the company cease operations than return to work under management's proposal.

5. As prescribed by the terms of the RLA, the company will then hire the "temporary" replacement workers to full time status essentially terminating the striking workers' employment with the company.

6. The company moves on and......................???

Can't happen? The description above is EXACTLY what happened to Northwest AMFA and my gut tells me that the New York street kid living inside RTS is spoiling for a fight. Pilots and mechanics may be apples and oranges, but it doesn't change the fact that this is one possible scenario.

Now, rather than pick apart each other's reasoning, how about posting some PREDICTIONS?

 

[Diesel]

How are mechanics the same as pilots? Sorry Northwest AMFA is not the same parallel to draw.

Trust me if we go on strike this company isn't coming back. They can't operate with all the vendors they have now. The vendors are also shy about giving them more buisness and burning their own customers. NJ had a problem with them 3 years ago and screwed a lot of charter companies.

With the mechanics striking NWA was able to keep the airplanes flying by outsourcing mx and the customers didn't really notice any changes. The pilots stop working.......the planes stop period.

So prediction- We strike there will be no company to come back to. OR RLA releases us, the company finally decides to sit down and present a fair offer and we try to get back to normal.

Those are the only two options.

 

[gutshotdraw]

Diesel,

As I pointed out, pilots and mechanics may be apples and oranges in this scenario but I still think the NWA AMFA strike is instructional with regard to the current state of labor relations in the aviation industry.

I don't think any offer presented by the company that falls even one inch short of full 6 S will be approved by the membership. The company is very unlikely to agree to a deal that costs over $1 billion. By your reckoning, that leaves only a complete and permanent shutdown of NJA. I still think there is a secret option C which is continued operations by EJM, NJI, NJE and every charter aircraft the company can hire. The operation that emerges at the other end will no doubt be much smaller, but there will be still be a company operating in some form.

The release will come. The only question is when. The bag tags say "Will Fight for 6 S." You'll have to.

 

[gunfyter]

I agree with gutshot


the company can do this because they have virtually all the money in the world to do it.

It will cost more than paying 6S.... Thus proving the lying SOB's have what it takes to pay 6S.

If they really really want to ... thay can make your prediction come true.

 

[FamilyGuy]

It will cost more than paying 6S.... Thus proving the lying SOB's have what it takes to pay 6S.

I've seen this misconception come up every time a potential strike is discussed.

To understand the thinking you have to look at the total cost picture....not just the single moment in time.

For example....lets say taking a strike costs $200 million and paying the workers demands costs $100 million.

The catch is that the $200 million is a one-time cost, and the $100 million continues on in perpetuity, which ultimately costs the company a lot more than the $200 million.

More simply put, would you rather pay a single lump sum payment of $200 now, or $100 every year for the rest of your life?

 

[gunfyter]

I think it will cost much more than $200 million.

There will be $50 million in new type ratings alone.

today we are likely doing $1million in selloffs a day. Can we bump that to $4 million?

!n 100 days you spend $400 million. 100 days is a minimum to get any significant part of the fleet off the ground with a scab airforce. Then 200 or more days with less than half the fleet another $200 million.

All this to avoid paying standard NBBA pilot salaries

 

[FamilyGuy]

I think it will cost much more than $200 million.

There will be $50 million in new type ratings alone.

today we are likely doing $1million in selloffs a day. Can we bump that to $4 million?

!n 100 days you spend $400 million. 100 days is a minimum to get any significant part of the fleet off the ground with a scab airforce. Then 200 or more days with less than half the fleet another $200 million.

All this to avoid paying standard NBBA pilot salaries

Gun - the numbers were not meant to be indicative of the current situation...merely an example to explain the concept.

Would a strike cost more than $200 million? probably.

Are the pilots demands more than $100 million? Definitely - as confirmed by both parties...

 

[Dr. Cy Kotic]

It's Finished

Netjets is finished. I've been here for 11+ years and all the guys I've known and flown with agree. Perhaps it will evolve into a smaller operation focusing on the initial business plan that made Netjets what it was a few years ago. Many of us old-timers are hoping CS or Flexjets will be the beneficiary of many of our clients. This will allow a majority of us to hopefully have a second life in the fractional industry. I believe the company has miscalculated the feelings of the most senior members of the pilot force. Many of us witnessed the the start-up of NJI and we still feel betrayed. I say that what they have is what we should have also. Just my take on things. Oh, and before everyone jumps up and down and bashes my reply.......I stand behind my elected MEC and negotiating committee 100% no matter what the final outcome.

 

[Geronimo4497]

The big differnce that I see between this and the NWA strike is that NJA is unable to hire and train new SCAB pilots while the current Union pilots are on property. Personally, I don't think there is enough charter availability out there to cover the immediate loss of 350+ airplanes (is that number correct?).


Predection - something happens, what that is, I don't know.

 

[Hawkered]

Nah..no way! Not time to be crying in your beer now, I think we're just about to see some pretty big smiles!

My prediction is a full resolve by months end. New orders confirmed by company and hiring plans published by October 15th and full ratification by end of October '05.