amcnd
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 1, 2003
- Posts
- 901
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Skywest Inc is a public company that has an over 100% return on their stock price in the last 4 months.
Not saying much. They lost more than 50% in the preceding 4-5 months. It just gained the 6 bucks back it lost.
Sweet magic trick, cockerfield!
I like how you made the denigrate company disappear by exposing the legitimate one. Bravo.
OK, I'm going to try to be diplomatic here: I am voting "no" on the PNCL TA because I believe that is the best vote for me. I agree that SkyWest is a much better company, and I wish they had been allowed to buy Mesaba rather than PNCL being told that they were going to buy us.
However, isn't it true that SkyWest does not have a pilot contract? Doesn't that mean that on any given day SkyWest management can just present their pilots with a concessionary deal, without any need to go into bankruptcy?
Please don't take offense, I have seen the light and wish I had jumped over to SkyWest years ago, during Mesaba's other bankruptcy. But how is SkyWest not the most vulnerable next player in Delta's race-to-the-bottom game?
Please spare me any talk of rock-solid ASAs with Delta. My eyes have been opened to the fact that no ASA is solid, and there are always ways around them.
On that last note, the next DCI to open a New York base is probably the next to get hit.
Skywest is not as vulnerable because they have a solid balance sheet, mostly long term profitable CPAs that can't be changed without consent, and are not remotely close to bankruptcy.
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The problem is the portfolio. Too many 50 seaters that are looking more and more unattractive to the legacies. The Brasilias also have limited time left until they go off to the likes of Great Lakes etc to be run for even cheaper. SkyWest saw the writing on the wall and like PNCL tried to consolidate to achieve mass, including legacy contracts. At the same time though, the legacies were trying to rid themselves of the gas guzzling 50 seaters, and the mainline pilots were looking to recapture flying in new contracts with the finally "healthy" legacies. It's a perfect storm.
Legacies (except AA but that will change with a merger) make more money so no scope changes available through BK, new fatigue and hiring rules, and high gas to prevent starting an "independent" airline.
Also, acquiring Xpressjet did give the company mass, but also gave them tons of 50 seaters. Yes, some can be replaced with new 76 seaters for UAL, but many more will have to be parked. Luckily for the pilots, all 3 legacies will be hiring big time within the next 5 years. Good timing.
SkyWest is probably the strongest Regional out there, that is true. But their large amount of 50 seaters and E120s does not make it immune from the whims of mainline CEOs. They are calling the shots, and mainline pilots are willing to recapture some of the flying they lost in the last decade, as seen in both new contracts at DL and UAL.