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SWA Poolies . . . a glimmer of hope?

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bmxandjets said:
Well, wouldn't a Jan new hire class put butts in seats in the spring..? Or, are we splitting atoms here..? Or, just drinking kool-aid from half empty glasses..?
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I was thinking more along the lines of April but I'll take any good news you've got!

Gup
 
I've started to learn to take GK at his word. So when he says NO GROWTH for the next three years I tend to take him at his word. I used to think that he didn't really mean what he said, but after numerous dissapointments, I've learned to accept that things are the way they are whether I like it or not. If GK changes his mind and decides to FINALLY GROW THIS AIRLINE again, then I will be thrilled, but until that happens. I'm going to just continue to show up, fly my trip, and go home. Hopefully the pool will be drained sooner rather than later, but I'm certainly not going to give you all false hope, because despite what a few of my fellow pilots have told you we are NOT understaffed even in the height of the summer flying schedule with the CURRENT FLEET. The only way to change that is to add more Airframes than we are retiring, and that hasn't been happening for the last few years.
 
Daddy said:
Right as usual, TC...see you on the line!
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Just like he was right back in 07/08? Please, give me a break! When anyone gets on this forum and claims to have the "pulse" of the company then that's when I call bullsh!t. Things can change at this or any other company at a moments notice. Poolies, try to stay positive; we're all hoping for the best!
 
Hey Mil, you retards thought there would be classes in '09 and '10. I said no. I was right. Just like I'll be right about '11.

Here's the logic (and you can stick your head in the sand over the math...but it is what it is):

The CEO said they hired too many people in the last 10 years.
He said no growth for '11 or '12.
He's going to replace older jets with bigger new jets (and can keep the capacity the same by replacing 5 old jets with only 4 new jets). Let's assume that each jet requires 10 pilots to make the math easy (I assume pilots/jet are higher than this). Re place 100 old jets with 80 new jets. An overall decrease of 20 jets. 20 jets times 10 pilots per equals 200 less pilots needed.

When might these new jets come? I'm hearing 2012. That's right about when retirements start again. So lets say 200 guys retire...well, looks like the manning is right on. So around 2013 it looks like it's time to hire again.

Mind you, this is before anyone buys JetBlue or Airtran.

BTW, I'm basically getting this from the horses mouth. My buddy talked with the CEO and VP of pilots a couple of days ago. He also told me the company is in negotiations with the pilots to get them to agree to fly the 800 with no assurance for a one for one swap. He was an exec in the union a few years ago....so he is well positioned to know both sides on this one.
 
What's funny to me is that SWA can keep plans hidden from the entire world, right up until the time they unveil them, that is hidden from everyone but TC the idiot king. Do you really expect us to think you have this magic inside track? Some TOAD would be the last person ANYONE from SWA would tell and you are the epitome TOAD!! Dirtsack!!
 
Yes you'd only need 4 -800's to replace the seating capacity of 5 older -300's. But you now have less airframes to cover the segments flown by those -300's. If the load factor is that good lately, and stays the same into next year, which segments get deleted? I know, SWA is optimizing the schedule. But they've been at it a couple of years now so the easy choices are gone. Hopefully things are improving enough so that these swaps are on a 1 for one basis -- this allows for ASM growth without trimming the fleet -- and possibly even adding an extra here and there.

Disclaimer: I don't have ANY inside knowledge, higher up friends, or both. I'm just a glass half full kind of guy who thinks things are looking better for some poolies in 2011.
 
Just a line pilot privy to the "inside scoop" from other line pilots I fly with during the week. I think nobody freakin' knows. With the extra cities and possible purchase of 800s, something could pop quickly. Right now, however, we are not undermanned, especially since we just finished the regular summer busy period WHILE putting folks through RNP training. I hope we hire/grow soon but like others have said, I take GK for his word. Hopefully optimistic though.
 
dragontamer said:
Just a line pilot privy to the "inside scoop" from other line pilots I fly with during the week. I think nobody freakin' knows. With the extra cities and possible purchase of 800s, something could pop quickly. Right now, however, we are not undermanned, especially since we just finished the regular summer busy period WHILE putting folks through RNP training. I hope we hire/grow soon but like others have said, I take GK for his word. Hopefully optimistic though.
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+1 on both these...
 
dragontamer said:
Just a line pilot privy to the "inside scoop" from other line pilots I fly with during the week. I think nobody freakin' knows. With the extra cities and possible purchase of 800s, something could pop quickly. Right now, however, we are not undermanned, especially since we just finished the regular summer busy period WHILE putting folks through RNP training. I hope we hire/grow soon but like others have said, I take GK for his word. Hopefully optimistic though.
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They went to the trouble of interviewing all of us back in the summer/fall of 08 for a reason. Somebody at the company thought they were going to need us (Rocky told my interview group Jan 08 latest).

It's worth reminding people that SWA had people in the pool for 2 years after 9/11 and didn't flush them.
 
I don't think any of you guys in the pool are going to get flushed. But, I also don't think you guys are going to be coming to class anytime soon unless GK actually GROWS the fleet again. If he gets the urge to Merge again which I'm betting he will (cough) B6 (cough), then it's going to be another 5 years before hiring will probably resume. Hope I'm wrong on all of this and we see you guys on property next year, but like I said before, I'm not going to give you guys false hope.
 
Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but if you look at past precedences in the industry, pools tend to get flushed after long periods of stagnation. The concern from the company's perspective is what has changed in the applicants back ground in 2-3 years. If they decide to re-interview, they open themselves to lawsuits if they deny an applicant who they previously hired.

I'm not talking Southwest specifically, because they only reference we have is post 9-11 where poolies sat for 18 months or so. More recently, United flushed after 2 years. Northwest flushed theirs out in less time. I truly hope it works out for the pilots awaiting class.
 
post 9/11 pool

Was in SWA pool 2 years post 9/11, and no flushes...they did make new flying currency rules, tho...
 
Jetjockey said:
Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but if you look at past precedences in the industry, pools tend to get flushed after long periods of stagnation. The concern from the company's perspective is what has changed in the applicants back ground in 2-3 years. If they decide to re-interview, they open themselves to lawsuits if they deny an applicant who they previously hired.

I'm not talking Southwest specifically, because they only reference we have is post 9-11 where poolies sat for 18 months or so. More recently, United flushed after 2 years. Northwest flushed theirs out in less time. I truly hope it works out for the pilots awaiting class.
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The SWA PD has already said when/if hiring resumes that there will be another background check, update of PRIA data, checkrides, etc. That's why they told me on the phone "you've been selected to continue in the hiring process" not "you are hired." Covering their butts. My money is on SWA not flushing the pool.
 
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4 Fan Trashcan said:
The SWA PD has already said when/if hiring resumes that there will be another background check, update of PRIA data, checkrides, etc. That's why they told me on the phone "you've been selected to continue in the hiring process" not "you are hired." Covering their butts. My money is on SWA not flushing the pool.
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Agree completely. I don't have any special insight into how the PD operates these days, but common sense (of which there is still a fair amount of around here) would dictate no flushing of the poolies. If you were good enough to be hired a few years ago, why would they go to the time and cost (and it's all still about costs here) to re-interview the same person? An updated background and flight currency check and you're GTG, I would think.
 
All good news for the poolies. I hope it holds true.
 
My guess as an outsider is not as much as at some places. SWA runs a pretty efficient scheduling operation from what I understand.
 
actually, there will be some hurt, the hi time fliers will have more problems working inside the rules, so in essence, a slightly higher chance of needing more folks to fly the line.
 

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