To called up ANG/AFRES folks
First of all thanks for your service. Your's and fellow guardsmen/reservists sacrifice for our country is greatly appreciated and respected by all.
As for your question about our growth plan. While I'm not on Gary Kelly's (SWA's CFo) e-mail listing I'm optimistic that even with the outbreak of hostilities the expected plans for future classes this year will continue unabated. We have planes coming, we need crews. It doesn't appear that the growth plans are being slowed up at this time even with war inevitable.
SWA has always improved market share during difficult times when other airlines have shrunk. With other airlines shrinking, a strong argument could be made that instead of slowing growth the expected downturn will only expedite it. SWA would expect to see loads temporarily decrease immediately after hostilities begin but assuming no major domestic terrorist attacks that would negatively impact air travel occur this downturn would impact the unhealthy airlines much more than us. Would we continue to expedite airplanes from outyears to this year? Who knows but if opportunities present themselves we'll see. Red-eyes which are highly profitable....long haul flights from DFW to SWA destinations (see Lamar Muse's comments in his recent book/article) with DAL based pilots...move into DIA if UA liquidates (not trying to bash UAL)....connect more dots on established long haul routes.....who knows what's up the sleeves of the SWA execs but as history has shown they are always planning for two paths: slow growth with profits or faster growth to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves to the company. I don't have inside info as to what their plans are just theorizing what opportunities are out there.
SWA's growth will continue and personnel who are recalled will have the opportunity (if in the pool) to go to the head of the line (assuming everyone ahead of them has been hired) and start class at the earliest opportunity when they return. SWA's past history shows they have done this with the 6 Jan class having so many STOP LOSS folks in it held over from the early crisis.
I've stated this previously also but will again for those who wish to hear my dribble. Another factor that bodes well for continued classes is the following fact. SWA had approximately 1% (40+) pilots recalled after 911 for military duty for various periods of time up to 1 year. I assume we have already seen some of the same things occurring or will very soon.
Could the numbers be greater this time? Certainly so since the conflict appears to be much larger in scale. These pilots will need to be "temporarily" replaced or VJA/JA rates will climb. If we know we have "X" number of aircraft coming in '04 & will need pilots then it stands to reason these "future pilots" could be hired now to fill shortterm shortages but not present a burden when recalled pilots return to the line since they would've been trained anyway albeit in '04 versus '03. Tabulations will be done to estimate their length of absence & someone will surely be looking at what impact these extended stays will have on our immediate & near term manning. This variable is unknown but certainly causes one to lean toward continued training to fill new aircraft purchases ALONG WITH expedited recalls of current pilots.
Maybe not a lot of details but hopefully enough optimism to quell any suspicions STOP LOSS folks will suffer inordinately (more than they will already!!!). Keep Lindsey, Jenn & the other folks informed to your status. The best of a bad situation would be recalled the day after you get your SWA seniority number. That way at least you're seniority is established versus waiting outside with no seniority number. Good luck & God Bless to our warriors...God Speed to those who are already being called up, our prayers are with you & your families.
Lots of speculation listed above but they are legitimate variables to the hiring future of SWA. Get off flightinfo.com & spend time with the family!!!!!
