SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[humveedriver]

Traditional WN pilot staffing is 10.2 pilots/airframe. Based on that number we would need 7140 pilots to staff a combined fleet of 700 airframes which leaves us overstaffed by roughly 700 pilots in 2015 with the roughly 200 WN retirments factored in. That is IF you buy into a flat fleet which I don't. It will take until mid 2020 for the WN retirements to get us down to that staffing number. How many millions of dollars do you really think the company is willing to spend training and employing excess pilots to sit around and fly very little just to save face and say that "we've never
furloughed" ? 700 extra F/Os cost over $100 MILLION per year.

Only 700 pilots will get furloughed? Dang I'm in good shape. Won't even see reserve if that's all they let go. I'm thinking the number should be higher. Think of all the cost savings for the company on the health insurance and other benefits. I hope not IF but WHEN this inevitable furlough comes, it's right before Christmas. We could set up another Christmas fund for the kids of the furloughed pilots. GBJ, you should change you screen name to Eeyore.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

The last person I called Eyore was telling me to buy gold and get out of real estate in 2006. Man that guy could suck the joy out of a room. I wish I had listened.

I really hope I'm wrong. My life and everyone elses will be much better if I am. That being said my problem is not matter how you work the math I can't see a scenario where a furlough doesn't make sense economically and strategically especially when the company has so many open labor contracts. All of the arguments I have read to this point are emotional. To this point no one has presented any math where a furlough doesn't make sense economically. Am I sure it will happen? No. But that being said I think we need to be aware of and prepared for that possibility.

 

[tankerhead]

The last person I called Eyore was telling me to buy gold and get out of real estate in 2006. Man that guy could suck the joy out of a room. I wish I had listened.

I really hope I'm wrong. My life and everyone elses will be much better if I am. That being said my problem is not matter how you work the math I can't see a scenario where a furlough doesn't make sense economically and strategically especially when the company has so many open labor contracts. All of the arguments I have read to this point are emotional. To this point no one has presented any math where a furlough doesn't make sense economically. Am I sure it will happen? No. But that being said I think we need to be aware of and prepared for that possibility.

Got it. Perfect. Now go prepare a little more and blog a little less.

 

[FlyinGuy]

You are forgetting the Wall Street factor. Will we be overmanned? Yep. Will we furlough? Nope. Why, because GK knows if he does it will be a huge sign to the boys that hold the cash that the house of cards that he built is about to fall. He will continue the overmanning because the cost of furlough will be too great.

Furlough will only come if there is huge economic problems in the courntry (ie Europe). That could happen, but it probably won't for at least a few more years.

Cheers....and keep spreading the gloom...

 

[Ty Webb]

Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[slaquer5]

The last person I called Eyore was telling me to buy gold and get out of real estate in 2006. Man that guy could suck the joy out of a room. I wish I had listened.

I really hope I'm wrong. My life and everyone elses will be much better if I am. That being said my problem is not matter how you work the math I can't see a scenario where a furlough doesn't make sense economically and strategically especially when the company has so many open labor contracts. All of the arguments I have read to this point are emotional. To this point no one has presented any math where a furlough doesn't make sense economically. Am I sure it will happen? No. But that being said I think we need to be aware of and prepared for that possibility.

Dude,

Gold has been called a buy for over 100 years.

You just heard someone say it, and soon after it went up. Even a blind squirrel gets a nut. OR even a broken clock is correct 2x a day.

SWA is not going to furlough, I think you will pleased where SWA in 5 years.

We do need to prepare for a lot of things, furlough is NOT one of them.


PS man does ty post fast he beat me to it

 

[texman]

Has everyone forgot about the 50+ orders of 737's AT is bringing and the 35+ classic life extensions. WE WILL BE A FLAT FLEET WITH NO FURLOUGHS! PERIOD END OF STORY!

 

[HowardBorden]

That being said my problem is not matter how you work the math I can't see a scenario where a furlough doesn't make sense economically and strategically especially when the company has so many open labor contracts. All of the arguments I have read to this point are emotional.

A furlough post 9/11 made economic and strategic sense. If ever there was a time that SWA could justify a furlough due to circumstances beyond their control, that was it. But as you well know SWA chose a different path. They chose to keep all their employees on the payroll in the face of certain decreased travel demand. They chose that route knowing full well it would lead to a lower profit margin. I can only look to past precedent in order to speculate about future actions on the part of management. I think of course anything is in fact possible but my money is on management acting in a manner consistent with past precedent. Was that unemotional enough for you?

 

[scoreboardII]

The last person I called Eyore was telling me to buy gold and get out of real estate in 2006. Man that guy could suck the joy out of a room. I wish I had listened.

I really hope I'm wrong. My life and everyone elses will be much better if I am. That being said my problem is not matter how you work the math I can't see a scenario where a furlough doesn't make sense economically and strategically especially when the company has so many open labor contracts. All of the arguments I have read to this point are emotional. To this point no one has presented any math where a furlough doesn't make sense economically. Am I sure it will happen? No. But that being said I think we need to be aware of and prepared for that possibility.

Please follow your advise and get that app into Delta ASAP.

Your problem is you are failing to do the math. Did you miss the part that SwA is overmanned every year by six hundred these last few years?

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Any truth to the rumor around widget land that swa is having to send 717 crews to China for recurrent? Supposedly del duh bought all the stateside time.