SWA, PHL and JBLU "Hot Flash"

[lowecur]

SWA/FO

The first one is being put together as we speak.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

So..
How many cities does JB serve..?

How many aircraft do they currently have?

How many years would it take for them to reach the size of SWA at current market conditions?

My point is that while JB at this point..Has a good product..How long for them to reach both the size and scope of SWA?

This using an business plan based on a aircraft that hasnt even flown yet?

Give me a break..

Mike

 

[B6Busdriver]

Man, you are a bit cocky.

 

[StopNTSing]

"Look for the order..."

 

[General Lee]

This is the same thing we have heard for the last couple of years about Jetblue. But, they have turned out to be a fierce competitor-----pulling out of ATL and leaving us with 14 flights a day to LAX. Southwest has to be worried about Jetblue getting bigger and having entertainment systems in ALL of their planes---something that we are trying to copy at Song. They are tough, and I think Southwest now sees that.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

StopNTSing

Okay!

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

Someone call the TSA!!!

Lowecur-

Dude, you have always been polite, but I can't help slamming you here...

You are a one trick pony! No one gives a Flying Romp about the EMB 175...190...2000 WHO CARES!

I got a newsflash for you: no one on this board is a VP for Aquisitions at an Airline. Talk till you're JetBlue in the face, but it won't affect the price of your EMB stock options! So please, for the love of all that is good, stop ranting about the stupid EMB on every single thread on this message board!

As far as HOT FLASHERS analysis on WN I think it is a bit off. If SWA sees an opportunity to make money they will go for it. IF a small city is ripe for pluckin', in they'll go quicker than a sailor on shore leave. And what on earth does Philly have to do with the Blue men from the big apple? That was a stretch.

-LFD

 

[Snoopy58]

Probably the most apparent moves will involve connecting the dots between existing airports on the WN route system. Watch for accelerated moves into transcon and semi-transcon markets.

Big-Time Loser: Wild Turkey Sales. What not to expect is a rash of new cities on their route system. .... Forays into risky new cities is not in the cards. Any airport that doesn't have a million enplanements and the potential of generating or capturing another 300,000 to 400,000 passengers can now commence singing the blues: The odds of getting Southwest service are neck and neck with a meteor strike.

So smaller airports should face realities. Southwest is out of reach. They aren't coming. Regardless.

50 cities in 7-8 years? Boyd says not!

But points for trying to run up the price of EMB stock... here & on the Yahoo investing boards as well.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

Hot Flash - November 3, 2003



After almost ten years of being able to pretty much call its own shots up and down the East Coast, Southwest now has to look over its shoulder. JetBlue is now firmly in the game, and it's a factor that will change the way Southwest plans its operation in the months and years ahead.

Up until now, they had no significant, well-focused, and large-scale low-fare competition in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

This guy ever hear of Airtran?

Not just between mega carriers and Southwest, but between competing low-fare airlines. Specifically, between Southwest and jetBlue.

I guess all the other airlines that we have competed with for years in the east will go un-named..

Some of the usual lightweight analysts will spout that it's an attack on US Airways. Forget it,

So..Anybody bold enough to disagree with this guy gets dismissed as a "lightweight analysts".

Southwest is a tough, well-run airline with management that knows the business. Especially the low-fare airline business.

I finally agree with something this man has said!

And that means they do not take the jetBlue threat lightly.

It's clear now that jetBlue will be a long term player.

Id say the jury is still out on that one..ATL anyone?

Let's look at what Southwest is probably considering in regard to jetBlue:

This guy doesnt have a clue what SWA will do about any airline..Much less JB..

Big time jetBlue expansion is inevitable. Southwest knows that jetBlue has over 200 airplanes on order. A lot of iron that will need to go someplace.

Got gates?landing slots?

.the reverse leakage driving out of Boston to fly WN is fixin' to get re-reversed back to Logan,

Maybe inner city folks..But..I dont see anyone outside of the city driving all the way to Logan when you have both PVD and MHT for choices..

Cost-focused consumers in eastern Nassau and in western Suffolk Counties didn't have significant low-fare options from LGA or JFK. Now they do, and dodging potholes on the Long Island Expressway toward JFK becomes much more attractive.

After having lived and worked on LI for years I can safely say that it will take alot more than a nice TV screen and Blue chips to get anybody to drive to LGA or JFK that lives anywhere near central or eastern LI..I know people that would rather take a car service to EWR than deal with JFK or LGA..

and yes, seat assignment.

I have to give him this one..We can do it with little or no cost..Its the time factor we need to work on for boarding..

This time, it's for real - jetBlue is serious competition. This is not the United Shuttle. This is not Continental Lite. This is not MetroJet.

So..UL,CL,and MJ were not competition.Of course not..Otherwise his slant towards JB being the first real player wouldnt make sense...

that minimizes the chances of ending up with a middle seat between two people from a culture that has not yet discovered soap. So..What does JB do?ask each person whether or not they know what soap is?Or was that just in the data base they sold..


Another dangerous competitive sign coming from jetBlue is that carrier's recent attempt to enter the Atlanta market from California. Apparently, it failed.

Duh!?Oh..But it was a sign of a well run business plan..

For those of us who have actually been on the Embraer 170 prototype, it's very clear that the -190 is a 100-seat mainline jet that will put jetBlue in a position to enter markets and adjust capacity with extreme flexibility.

Can you say"not even built yet?"

The airline can be expected to move quickly over the next 18-months to shore up its position in key Eastern markets. Probably the most apparent moves will involve connecting the dots between existing airports on the WN route system. Watch for accelerated moves into transcon and semi-transcon markets.

Weve been connecting the dots for over thirty years..Increases in trans cons have been in the works for years as well..

Forays into risky new cities is not in the cards.

Come to think of it..Its NEVER been in the cards..

For almost a decade, Southwest has had pretty much free reign.

Then who the he11 owns all those da#@ planes I keep seeing on the TCAS?

For Southwest, it means adjusting and responding to competition that wasn't there before.

Again..Easy to say because its old news..Weve been doing just that for over thirty years..HELLLOOO!!


Mike
QUOTE]

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

B6Busdriver..

My comments were not a slight of JB..More a responce to Mike Boyds ranting about the cat fight between JB and SWA..

I happen to think that JB has a great product but its still too early to tell where they will fit into the market IMHO..

If i have offended any of you great B6 folks then i am truly sorry..

Mike

 

[FLB717]

Redtails,
I thankyou for letting me know how bad my companies product is, I was hoping no one noticed. In fact I tell everyone thanks for not flying Jetblue in Atlanta because of the great concern it gives me in not sleeping well at night. Your cost are low and it will remain so as long as you continue to skim the cream of the long haul large demand routes. As our 737's come on line Ryan will go away and our CSM will drop and profits I fell will rise towards yours. And I will be very interested in how fast and well you build a feed system with your RJ's, and your cost to operate short haul will rise compared to your current structure. I think you will find building a feed system to small cities with every DCI and CoEx RJ doing the same is different from JFK to LAX. And yeah incentives to small cities is nice. It provides some incentive for the people who ask us to come and lower prices to fly us instead of using us for freq flyer services on the Majors. Now go kick your dog or something.

 

[flyingitalian]

lowecur,
You gotta be kidding me with all the emb190 is the savior stuff. Its an airplane that does not even exist. As a pilot for the launch of the 145 I can tell you that emb overstates the performance of their aircraft. It took a few years to get the 145 to where it is today, but I can tell you the performance is not as advertised. Also with the new passenger weights the 145 cant even carry a full load and bags.

Look the 190 may indeed turn out to be a nice airplane, but its not even here yet. Hanging the success or failure of an airline on one particular airplane is smokin crack.

 

[Redtails]

Lighten up Airtrans. There are quite a few communities that have incentive packages too for JBLU, but we've yet to take any "handouts". I think it'll be interesting to see the approach the LCCs take to expansion. JBLU and Southwest with adding Boston and Philadelphia respectively next year could be the only cities they bring on for all of next year (Connect the dots). This year, B6 only added San Diego, minus Atlanta, of course. How many cities did AirTran bring on? How many gates did they get in DFW? I think FL's expansion plans are quite aggressive and should be lauded-- I also believe that AA won't let you ride unreigned either in their backyard (they've realigned their assets for a fight in ORD and DFW). Good luck and God speed, FL, you've got a fine company, you don't need to defend it so hard...

 

[lowecur]

LiveFreeorDie

Lighten up, paly.

Those who post here with frequency all have an agenda. Whether it's to defend their airline, their contract or inform others, it's all about "freedom of speech" and thought!

People that don't agree with me, that's fine! I respect that. I would never tell someone that they should "move along," because I don't agree with them.

You should try a little more to live up to your username. Tolerance is a virtue that more of us need to live up to.

On the stock price. Come on, do you really believe that I think I influence the price of the stock? Don't be so nieve.

 

[Flying Freddie]

nieve?

 

[lowecur]

flyingfreddie

Naive.

Senior moment.

 

[B6Busdriver]

B6Busdriver..

My comments were not a slight of JB..More a responce to Mike Boyds ranting about the cat fight between JB and SWA..

I happen to think that JB has a great product but its still too early to tell where they will fit into the market IMHO..

If i have offended any of you great B6 folks then i am truly sorry..

Mike

MLB,
Your comments don't offend me in the slightest. That said the attitude of your post would scare me if I worked for SWA. I think it's foolish to take ANY competition for granted. One thing the management of jetBlue stresses is "we are only as good as our last flight." Our CEO and president ride the jumpseat frequently and they are the first to say we can never take any competition for granted. Humility really is a good thing. SWA is not immune to competition. To think change is not necessary for long term survivability is foolish. One always has to look at ways to improve.

Wether you like Boyd's article or not the guy has a pretty good history. I've been reading his website for years. He called the UAL-U merger just as it happened. He has talked for years about the 100 seat airplane market and how there is a void to be filled. He's dead on about airport security.

I'm too lazy to counter every argument you made against Boyd's article but here are a few:
Gates/slots will be built ,obtained, purchased,or acquired through political means. There are only a handful of slot controlled airports in this country so this won't be too big a factor. The biggest slot problem is going to be LGB. I expect very few slots to be added because of the noise issues.
As far as the jury being out for long term survivability. IMHO the jury is out for EVERY airline. B6 had 3 flights a day out of ATL. Hardly make or break for an airline.
Metrojet was hardly competition. All Ghettojet did was exacerbate U's financial problems. CAL Lite darn near put the company out of business.
I live near MHT and let me tell ya there are many Mass plates in the airport parking lot. Some of those people might very well go to Logan. Getting in and out of MHT is no picnic either. To think jetBlue might not take some traffic is nuts!
As for the 170 it's flying and will be delivered shortly. The 190 is supposed to fly 2nd quarter 2004. The 190 as you know is just a stretch of the 170.


As for being the media darlings. Personally I hate seeing these flowery articles that laud jetBlue. I would much rather be the quiet company that comes out of nowhere. The media loves to build you up and then tear you to shreds. You have to admit before jetBlue SWA has been the media darling of the airline world.

You work for the greatest major airline out there. Thanks to you and your co-workers for the many jumpseats and passes that have provided my family with ability to travel.

 

[mad691]

The bottom line is eventually the top 3 or 4 LCC's are going to bump heads. It will be interesting to see how they all react to each other. All these LCC's have different products to offer. Airtran with business class, Jetblue with IFE, leather seats and Southwest with unassigned seating. One thing is for sure I do believe Usairways has a full plate. They will be probably the ones to hurt the most.

 

[SWA/FO]

I'd say the LCC's are not going to be going at it until all the Lagacy Carriers are gone. An LCC fighting an LCC is a war! An LCC picking on a Lagacy Carrier now thats easy, there is so much to pick on.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

B6Busdriver..

Im not too sure what you mean by my attitude..

You seem to feel that im some how not taking JB seriously..

Trust me when i say that everyone at SWA..My self included.. takes all forms of any competition seriously..

Again..My post was directed at Mr Boyds stretch of an artical..

He presumes that SWA making changes based on JB is some new thing that is some sort of wake up call for our managment..

Mr Boyds slant would lead most folks to believe that SWA has not had anything but a free pass for the last decade when it comes to our growth..

He then goes on to say that SWA is one tough and capable airline and our managment folks know what they are doing..

Of the three above assumptions presented by Mr Boyd only one is true IMHO..

Feel free to guess which one..

Mike