SWA, PHL and JBLU "Hot Flash"

[Redtails]

I have to hand it to those Citrus folks. They know how to make communities give them money to come to their cities. B6 is not as highly subsidized as FL. One example is Wichita, KS. Last year, Wichita paid FL $3 million for their shortcomings, so far this year, the bill is $680,000. Pensacola also created a bank to lure FL from Eglin, FL. Beau Rivage (Casino) in Gulfport, MS, pays for a number of seats on FL, whether they've got passegers or not. I applaud your management in landing these sweet deals. In less than 4 years, B6 has surpassed FL in number of seat miles (I think if FL had started with a better airframe from the beginning, their numbers would've been through the roof). The article is correct in stating that JBLU has created a good following, our customers know that we'll go the extra mile for them (Blackout, President's Day Snowstorm) and that our service from the FAs is nearly the best in the LCC industry. When the time comes for our ERJs, they too will be staffed by B6 employees, because our brand matters. Airtran can job out AW and Ryan Intl, because their brand doesn't matter, their customers only want one thing, cheap fare... The future looks bright for all LCCs and each has their own niche-- it'll be more interesting when Virgin America starts soon, throw another one in!!!

 

[SWA/FO]

Are there any EMB 190's flying? Or is this still on the drawing board?

 

[lowecur]

Snoopy58!!!!!!!!!

Hemorrhoids got you off the line? That's OK, we can continue our discussion. 58 stands for the year you were born, right?

I liked that whole article except for the "big city" inferrence. As a professional analyst/strategist, he gets his share wrong. How'd you like the Philadelphia Story? I'll bet you had a hangover for 3 days. I have to admit, my wife had to pick my head up out of the cereal bowl.

You keep referring to the 190. That will only be a small part of the purchase by WN. I look for the 175, as the primary purchase. The 86 seats are perfect when they take over the majority of that regional terminal with 40 gates at PHL. And yes, that's why they are in PHL. Not for the 8 gates that they will have in 2 years. They need a facility to dominate the East Coast Small/Mid Size Market, and PHL is the ticket. With UAIR the weakest of the legacy carriers, they are setting themselves up perfectly to compete against B6 and the rest when UAIR goes 7.

Can you decifer what kind of propaganda MLBWINGBORN is trying to promote. Maybe I have trouble reading the 3Q 10K, but it clearly states between 2009-12 that those 177 a/c are options. Also, he's growing the fleet faster than they acquire new a/c. By the 10K accounts, it shows 127 firm new a/c from 2004-08. He's growing fleet by 157 during the same period. Do these numbers come from SWAPA?

Looking forward to your congenial remarks as always.

 

[Snoopy58]

I liked that whole article except for the "big city" inferrence.

That was pretty much the entire point of the whole article, that SWA will only be going into big cities in the near future. Which shoots down the SWA/EMB theory entirely. But other than that, the article was okay? You like the font, the graphics, the spelling & grammer were all good? Everything except his main point, right?

 

[lowecur]

-better read the important part-

"For those of us who have actually been on the Embraer 170 prototype, it's very clear the -190 is a 100-seat mainline jet that will put JetBlue in position to enter markets and adjust capacity with extreme flexibility. Bottom Line: Jetblue is now the standard to which low fare airlines must aspire. Including Southwest, even as good as they are."

"And responding to new competition, offen demands changing the way one does business. It's evolve or die. By the time the dust settles on this match-up, both airlines are likely to look a whole lot different that they do today."

You missed the point, Snoop!

 

[lowecur]

SWA/FO

The first one is being put together as we speak.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

So..
How many cities does JB serve..?

How many aircraft do they currently have?

How many years would it take for them to reach the size of SWA at current market conditions?

My point is that while JB at this point..Has a good product..How long for them to reach both the size and scope of SWA?

This using an business plan based on a aircraft that hasnt even flown yet?

Give me a break..

Mike

 

[B6Busdriver]

Man, you are a bit cocky.

 

[StopNTSing]

"Look for the order..."

 

[General Lee]

This is the same thing we have heard for the last couple of years about Jetblue. But, they have turned out to be a fierce competitor-----pulling out of ATL and leaving us with 14 flights a day to LAX. Southwest has to be worried about Jetblue getting bigger and having entertainment systems in ALL of their planes---something that we are trying to copy at Song. They are tough, and I think Southwest now sees that.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

StopNTSing

Okay!

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

Someone call the TSA!!!

Lowecur-

Dude, you have always been polite, but I can't help slamming you here...

You are a one trick pony! No one gives a Flying Romp about the EMB 175...190...2000 WHO CARES!

I got a newsflash for you: no one on this board is a VP for Aquisitions at an Airline. Talk till you're JetBlue in the face, but it won't affect the price of your EMB stock options! So please, for the love of all that is good, stop ranting about the stupid EMB on every single thread on this message board!

As far as HOT FLASHERS analysis on WN I think it is a bit off. If SWA sees an opportunity to make money they will go for it. IF a small city is ripe for pluckin', in they'll go quicker than a sailor on shore leave. And what on earth does Philly have to do with the Blue men from the big apple? That was a stretch.

-LFD

 

[Snoopy58]

Probably the most apparent moves will involve connecting the dots between existing airports on the WN route system. Watch for accelerated moves into transcon and semi-transcon markets.

Big-Time Loser: Wild Turkey Sales. What not to expect is a rash of new cities on their route system. .... Forays into risky new cities is not in the cards. Any airport that doesn't have a million enplanements and the potential of generating or capturing another 300,000 to 400,000 passengers can now commence singing the blues: The odds of getting Southwest service are neck and neck with a meteor strike.

So smaller airports should face realities. Southwest is out of reach. They aren't coming. Regardless.

50 cities in 7-8 years? Boyd says not!

But points for trying to run up the price of EMB stock... here & on the Yahoo investing boards as well.

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

Hot Flash - November 3, 2003



After almost ten years of being able to pretty much call its own shots up and down the East Coast, Southwest now has to look over its shoulder. JetBlue is now firmly in the game, and it's a factor that will change the way Southwest plans its operation in the months and years ahead.

Up until now, they had no significant, well-focused, and large-scale low-fare competition in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

This guy ever hear of Airtran?

Not just between mega carriers and Southwest, but between competing low-fare airlines. Specifically, between Southwest and jetBlue.

I guess all the other airlines that we have competed with for years in the east will go un-named..

Some of the usual lightweight analysts will spout that it's an attack on US Airways. Forget it,

So..Anybody bold enough to disagree with this guy gets dismissed as a "lightweight analysts".

Southwest is a tough, well-run airline with management that knows the business. Especially the low-fare airline business.

I finally agree with something this man has said!

And that means they do not take the jetBlue threat lightly.

It's clear now that jetBlue will be a long term player.

Id say the jury is still out on that one..ATL anyone?

Let's look at what Southwest is probably considering in regard to jetBlue:

This guy doesnt have a clue what SWA will do about any airline..Much less JB..

Big time jetBlue expansion is inevitable. Southwest knows that jetBlue has over 200 airplanes on order. A lot of iron that will need to go someplace.

Got gates?landing slots?

.the reverse leakage driving out of Boston to fly WN is fixin' to get re-reversed back to Logan,

Maybe inner city folks..But..I dont see anyone outside of the city driving all the way to Logan when you have both PVD and MHT for choices..

Cost-focused consumers in eastern Nassau and in western Suffolk Counties didn't have significant low-fare options from LGA or JFK. Now they do, and dodging potholes on the Long Island Expressway toward JFK becomes much more attractive.

After having lived and worked on LI for years I can safely say that it will take alot more than a nice TV screen and Blue chips to get anybody to drive to LGA or JFK that lives anywhere near central or eastern LI..I know people that would rather take a car service to EWR than deal with JFK or LGA..

and yes, seat assignment.

I have to give him this one..We can do it with little or no cost..Its the time factor we need to work on for boarding..

This time, it's for real - jetBlue is serious competition. This is not the United Shuttle. This is not Continental Lite. This is not MetroJet.

So..UL,CL,and MJ were not competition.Of course not..Otherwise his slant towards JB being the first real player wouldnt make sense...

that minimizes the chances of ending up with a middle seat between two people from a culture that has not yet discovered soap. So..What does JB do?ask each person whether or not they know what soap is?Or was that just in the data base they sold..


Another dangerous competitive sign coming from jetBlue is that carrier's recent attempt to enter the Atlanta market from California. Apparently, it failed.

Duh!?Oh..But it was a sign of a well run business plan..

For those of us who have actually been on the Embraer 170 prototype, it's very clear that the -190 is a 100-seat mainline jet that will put jetBlue in a position to enter markets and adjust capacity with extreme flexibility.

Can you say"not even built yet?"

The airline can be expected to move quickly over the next 18-months to shore up its position in key Eastern markets. Probably the most apparent moves will involve connecting the dots between existing airports on the WN route system. Watch for accelerated moves into transcon and semi-transcon markets.

Weve been connecting the dots for over thirty years..Increases in trans cons have been in the works for years as well..

Forays into risky new cities is not in the cards.

Come to think of it..Its NEVER been in the cards..

For almost a decade, Southwest has had pretty much free reign.

Then who the he11 owns all those da#@ planes I keep seeing on the TCAS?

For Southwest, it means adjusting and responding to competition that wasn't there before.

Again..Easy to say because its old news..Weve been doing just that for over thirty years..HELLLOOO!!


Mike
QUOTE]

 

[MLBWINGBORN]

B6Busdriver..

My comments were not a slight of JB..More a responce to Mike Boyds ranting about the cat fight between JB and SWA..

I happen to think that JB has a great product but its still too early to tell where they will fit into the market IMHO..

If i have offended any of you great B6 folks then i am truly sorry..

Mike