SWA isn't buying anyone!

[roughneck]

Lots of rumors, but they are just that. We are pulling out all of the stops in the revenue game trying to get our profits back up for the investors. We are going to continue to grow at a moderate pace and wait this thing out.

If oil stays around $75, you can expect the long awaited industry consolidation to occur by necessity in 6-18 months. One, maybe two, major US cariers will go away and the remaining will consolidate. AThe government will not interfere this time around and will actually incourage consolidation. No bailouts this time. This will fix the capacity issues for a decade or so.

When and if this happens, I expect SWA will be a major player in the consolidation but probably only assets, routes, slots, etc. We will probably go after a shuttle in the Northeast, and we will look to move into several large markets that we don't currently serve. MSP, ATL, CLT, Hawaii.

We will most likely announce a new codeshare partner this fall that will give us International reach and we will look to start Mexico, Canada, Carribean ourselves in 5 years.

I know that isn't as much fun a spreading rumors about a merger, but that is the likely way this will playout for SWA in the next 6-18 months.

 

[General Lee]

Lots of rumors, but they are just that. We are pulling out all of the stops in the revenue game trying to get our profits back up for the investors. We are going to continue to grow at a moderate pace and wait this thing out.

If oil stays around $75, you can expect the long awaited industry consolidation to occur by necessity in 6-18 months. One, maybe two, major US cariers will go away and the remaining will consolidate. AThe government will not interfere this time around and will actually incourage consolidation. No bailouts this time. This will fix the capacity issues for a decade or so.

When and if this happens, I expect SWA will be a major player in the consolidation but probably only assets, routes, slots, etc. We will probably go after a shuttle in the Northeast, and we will look to move into several large markets that we don't currently serve. MSP, ATL, CLT, Hawaii.

We will most likely announce a new codeshare partner this fall that will give us International reach and we will look to start Mexico, Canada, Carribean ourselves in 5 years.

I know that isn't as much fun a spreading rumors about a merger, but that is the likely way this will playout for SWA in the next 6-18 months.

Go after a Shuttle in the NE? American Eagle will be selling you a Shuttle? Where do you make this stuff up? USAir won't get rid of theirs, and the only way Delta or USAir would give one up is if they merged together, and that didn't seem to go well the first time. Sure, there could be some mergers, but I don't think anyone will be selling their best assests if they don't have to. Also, most legacies are expanding INTL routes because they don't have the same pressures as Domestic routes, and the LCCs in the US will feel plenty of pressure due to the new entrants. They have no room to expand outwards because they don't have the planes, and the legacies are shifting planes away from the domestic arena and outward to the more profitable INTL side. I think there could be some LCCs merging, no doubt.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[roughneck]

Sure, there could be some mergers, but I don't think anyone will be selling their best assests if they don't have to.

If oil stays around $75 they will have too. Maybe you need to reread my post. I think 1 maybe 2 carriers won't even be around long term. Delta possibly being one of them.

 

[PCL_128]

I think 1 maybe 2 carriers won't even be around long term. Delta possibly being one of them.

Delta will still be standing years after every LCC has ceased to exist or been swallowed up by the legacies. None of the legacies are going anywhere.

 

[PuffDriver]

Sure, there could be some mergers, but I don't think anyone will be selling their best assests if they don't have to.

If oil stays around $75 they will have too. Maybe you need to reread my post. I think 1 maybe 2 carriers won't even be around long term. Delta possibly being one of them.

This stuff cracks me up. The honeymoon is ending at SWA. Labor costs going up. Fuel costs going up. Destinations going away. You go into ATL, MIA, ORD, LGA, JFK, ou will get your clock cleaned. Assets at SWA worth more than the company. We do live in interesting times. The industry darling is now suceptible to market forces. BTW, that 1 or 2 carriers may include Delta, or it might include SWA. My money would be seeing SWA go away. Either way, I'm "hedged".

 

[Noserider76]

.

If oil stays around $75 they will have too. Maybe you need to reread my post. I think 1 maybe 2 carriers won't even be around long term. Delta possibly being one of them.

What a rocket scientist post. With no international exposure, fully at the mercy of the domestic market, and dissapearing fuel hedges, I give SWA about the same chance as DL of being "one of them."

 

[Whataburger]

Delta will still be standing years after every LCC has ceased to exist or been swallowed up by the legacies. None of the legacies are going anywhere.

.......whether it take filing Ch.11 again or gov't bailouts right?

 

[328dude]

What a rocket scientist post. With no international exposure, fully at the mercy of the domestic market, and dissapearing fuel hedges, I give SWA about the same chance as DL of being "one of them."

Being at Southwest, I have to agree with your statement. I don't classify us any less vulnarable that anyone else, even Delta. I agree that Delta will be in the mix for a long time. (God, I can't belive I said that. Don't give me to much grief General.)

 

[Whataburger]

How many years was Delta around before its "international exposure?" The answer is 30 years to even go to the Carribean. Many more years to cross the pond. We are but a wee-baby where the sky's the limit.

 

[Eagle757shark]

I don't know where Southwest is going to get gates in Atlanta. AirTran and Delta have their hands full trying to get more gates that don't exist. NO new terminal is going up in the near future in Atlanta, so unless they purchase one of the two big tenants in Atlanta, I doubt they will be doing service there.

 

[atafan]

We will most likely announce a new codeshare partner this fall that will give us International reach and we will look to start Mexico, Canada, Carribean ourselves in 5 years.

Gary K already told you who that will be, ATA, or GAL. Don't expect for SWA to be doing any of that flying anytime soon. I expect SWA to do Int'l only as a code share for years to come, at least five maybe more. I know that you guys are working hard with scope and I expect SWA will hold hard on this new flying.

I also expect to see the LUV fest SWA pilots have with management to be tested soon.

It will get real interesting.

 

[Whataburger]

Gary K already told you who that will be, ATA, or GAL. Don't expect for SWA to be doing any of that flying anytime soon. I expect SWA to do Int'l only as a code share for years to come, at least five maybe more. I know that you guys are working hard with scope and I expect SWA will hold hard on this new flying.

I also expect to see the LUV fest SWA pilots have with management to be tested soon.

It will get real interesting.

The speed and precision in which our company can do something has proven itself, and it has surprised many people along the way. When/if we decide to go international, it'll get done quickly. Our company is very proficient, can move paperwork quickly, and knows how to get 'er done. Let's face it, flying international ain't rocket surgery. There are start-ups these days that fly int'l. I hope we have a harmonious relationship with ATA, but I believe in the next months and years there will be a lot of surprises on many fronts.

 

[AC560]

None of the legacies are going anywhere.

TWA, Pan Am, Eastern.....part of the reason those guys are gone is because they also had the attitude of we ain't going anywhere. Everyone is vulnerable.

 

[ATR-DRIVR]

NO new terminal is going up in the near future in Atlanta, so unless they purchase one of the two big tenants in Atlanta, I doubt they will be doing service there.

Um..ok.. so what are they building east of E concourse?

 

[atafan]

When/if we decide to go international, it'll get done quickly.

I couldn't agree more! I know that if SWA wanted to start service to Mexico they would do it quickly. I give SWA a lot of credit for doing things better and differently. SWA has seen that they can generate a lot of "risk free" revenue by this codeshare thing. They sell tickets internationally and still operate pretty much the same as they always have by allowing another airline shoulder the expense and high risk of the international legs.

How SWA can accomplish this while keeping their employees happy has yet to be revealed. I believe that this is the direction SWA will take.

I expect to see some brilliant moves.