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SWA Gets More Cautious For '08

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The Prussian

Stecknadelkopf
Joined
Oct 24, 2005
Posts
671
AP
Southwest Cuts Growth Plans Again
Tuesday December 4, 10:30 am ET
By David Koenig, AP Business Writer Southwest Cuts Growth Plans for Second Time; Expects 4-5 Percent in 2008

DALLAS (AP) -- Southwest Airlines Co. said Tuesday it would slow its planned growth in 2008, the second time this year that the low-cost carrier has reined in expansion as it struggles with high fuel costs.
The airline said it would grow 4 percent to 5 percent next year, compared with earlier expectations of 6 percent in 2008. The company will retire planes faster than it adds new ones in a bid to boost profits.
"We are concerned about growing evidence of slowing economic growth that would inevitably affect passenger demand, coupled with a surge in energy prices," Chief Executive Gary C. Kelly said in a statement.
Southwest's announcement came a day after rival Continental Airlines Inc. cut its growth expectations for next year to between 2 percent and 3 percent, down from 3 percent to 4 percent.
Dallas-based Southwest also reported Tuesday that November traffic grew 2.6 percent, measured by miles flown by paying passengers. That growth, however, failed to keep up with a 6.4 percent increase in capacity.
As a result, average occupancy on Southwest flights slipped to 69.3 percent from 71.8 percent in November 2006.
The airline plans to add five to 10 new planes next year, down from its previous plans for 19 Boeing 737s. Chief Financial Officer Laura Wright said the airline would also retire more older jets than previously planned.
Southwest first cut its growth plans from 8 percent to 6 percent in June, and Kelly hinted in November at further tightening.
Southwest has options to buy fuel at below-market rates, which gives it an advantage over its rivals. Still, rising fuel costs are making it harder for the airline to hit its financial goals.
In addition, Wright told investors in New York that nonfuel costs will also rise next year, citing higher maintenance needs.
The airline is also in negotiations with pilots for a new contract that could lead to higher labor costs.
Southwest is trying to offset higher costs by generating more revenue from ticket sales to business travelers. It recently began offering business travelers extra perks, such as early boarding and a drink for a slightly higher fare.
Southwest shares rose a penny to $13.74 in morning trading.
 
Continental also announced yesterday slowing domestic growth to around 2-3%.

I'd say that is about the end of a so-called "pilot shortage."
 
Nah. We drop from 4-5% to 2-3% but it still is GROWTH. Still hiring 12-16 a week until end of April 2008. Retirements are on track at 20-25 a month. With the addition of 33 new aircraft next year, look for the sale of more 737-500/300's to reach the new reduced capacity cuts.
 
I'll agree that slowing growth would not be good news for employment, let alone anybody in the airlines. It depends how badly the economy pulls back, and where oil prices go as to how ugly it gets in this business. I'm betting it might get real ugly.
 
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I'll agree that slowing growth would not be good news for employment, let alone anybody in the airlines. It depends how badly the economy pulls back, and where oil prices go as to how ugly it gets in this business. I'm betting it might get real ugly.

Its a typical airline cycle that always emerges. During the down-turns, he with cash will prevail. Those with expensive orders will have a hard time, and those with nice fuel hedges have a nice cushion.
 
A Wall Street analyst reiterates a Buy on Luv...


S&P REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF SOUTHWEST AIRLINES


LUV; $13.74
Southwest is slowing its plan for capacity growth in 2008 to 4%-5%, compared to its prior 8% growth target. Southwest cites high oil prices and slowing economic growth, which it says will "inevitably affect passenger demand". We think slowing growth by Southwest and many competitors domestically should allow for continued progress on pricing. Also, Southwest is best protected among peers by fuel hedges. We remain positive on Southwest's new revenue-generating initiatives, which we think will help it outperform the industry in domestic unit revenue growth in 2008. We are keeping our target price at $22. /J. Corridore
 
Dont we have something in our CodeShare the stops it if we dont grow 5%?

This may be a stupid question, but since the "codeShare" is mostly west coast to Hawaii connections, why would there be a desire to eliminate what is essentially a "free flow" of money to SWA?

SKIPPER
 

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