SWA Fleet update

[Snoopy58]

From SWA:

Southwest has taken delivery of N436WN–our fifth new Boeing 737-700 of the year. The new aircraft, combined with a -200 retirement, keeps our fleet at 378 aircraft.
For the remainder of the year, Southwest has 12 additional 737-700 deliveries scheduled.

I won't try to read the tea leaves as to what that means for future hiring. HOWEVER...

... I did hear an interesting rumor the other day: In January 2005, DRVSM (Domestic Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums) takes effect, opening up the even-numbered flight levels above 280. Good thing, right? Not if you're a 737-200, which needs at least a new Air Data Computer & maybe more than that in order to be compliant with the new rules. Apparently the new ADC is too costly, and flying the -200's around at FL280 and below is too inefficient, so (according to this particular rumor) SWA will retire the last -200 at the end of 2004.

What's this mean? It means that there will be (if I did my ciphering correctly) 8 more -200 retirements during 2004 than there otherwise would have been (the last 8 were originally scheduled to retire during 2005). Will SWA take delivery of more -700's during that time to offset the extra retirements? Unknown. Will the jets all retire at once, or will they be spaced out across the year? Unknown (though the former option keeps them in revenue service longer, but creates a shock to crew manning in Jan 05). What's this mean for hiring? I won't even think about going there -- way beyond any insight I have. (Sorry!)

One other related rumor about the -200's. Right now they're flown by DAL and HOU crews, plus whoever volunteers to stay current in the -200 & pick up DAL/HOU trips. Rumor says, as of January 2004, all -200 flying goes to a single base. No word if it will be DAL or HOU. Minimal impact on poolies/newhires from this rumor, I should think.

cheers,

Snoopy

 

[SWA GUY]

10:1 odds say the -200's are gonna be in DAL.

I sure hope so anyway.......

HC

 

[canyonblue]

10:1? Man I think even money DAL!

 

[SilentDave]

Chicks did the -200!

 

[OPIE01]

Do the -200s go to FL 280 in Texas

Why do they have to retire all the -200 by the time this new rule comes out.

If all the -200s are based in Dallas and only fly short hops around the state, will they ever need to get to FL 280?

 

[Snoopy58]

SWA wouldn't be FORCED to retire the -200's when DRVSM goes into effect; they'd just be capped at 280. The routes in Texas as they're filed currently for the -200's do go above 280 most of the time. It would be possible to fly the routes all at 27 or 28, but apparently (and this is where I'm relying on the source of the rumor) the cost in fuel is too high. The -200's use a lot of gas compared to the -300's anyway, and when the financial wizards looked at the -200 program costs (mx & so forth in addition to fuel), that step pushed the costs beyond the point where it was worth keeping the jets into 2005.

So, it seems that the decision has been made to just get rid of the last 8 of the -200's a year early.

No insight if the -700 deliveries will be stepped up to compensate, in full or in part, for the faster retirements. Stepping up the deliveries would keep the fleet size up & keep expansion on track (and also hiring!), but at a significantly higher cash cost than what had been forecast (i.e. paying for new jets sooner than originally planned). I'm not nearly smart enough on the numbers to know if the benefits of the larger fleet outweigh the costs of accellerated payments to Boeing.

The good news is that there ARE plenty of smart people at the G.O. who are very good at those sorts of decisions! (The bad news is, they don't always clue me in on their plans. Sorry!)


BTW -- if somebody is offering 10:1 odds that the -200's all end up in Dallas, I'd take that bet for a dollar!

 

[goflyme]

when did the 200's get flight management computers?

 

[CaptWidgeon]

hey silent dave, do you maybe mean 'dig'???

 

[SilentDave]

Yup, too much Shiner combined with a blond moment.

 

[SilentDave]

Slick, you need to change your status to "no longer a mooch on society"
Good luck on IOE I'll catch up with you next week.