SWA expected upgrade times?

[scoreboardII]

It's a bubble right now, everyone everywhere is stagnant. SWA is 11 yrs and gaining, probably will hit 19-20 years in 5-7 years. However, once that bubble hits the end of age 65, it will fall back to an industry standard of around 15 years. If you are a late 20 something, you'll do fine, if you are a mil retiree, you will never see captain anywhere.

 

[jonjuan]

It's a bubble right now, everyone everywhere is stagnant. SWA is 11 yrs and gaining, probably will hit 19-20 years in 5-7 years. However, once that bubble hits the end of age 65, it will fall back to an industry standard of around 15 years. If you are a late 20 something, you'll do fine, if you are a mil retiree, you will never see captain anywhere.

Lists at AA, LCC, UAL, and DAL will hit 50% in 11 years due to age 65. 50% at SWA is 19 years today.

 

[On Your Six]

Lists at AA, LCC, UAL, and DAL will hit 50% in 11 years due to age 65. 50% at SWA is 19 years today.

A lot of those Airtran guys are really young. How many age 65 retirements do you have over the next 5-10 years?


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[Lear70]

Unless growth radically speeds up, the indications are that upgrades for a NEW HIRE today are upwards of 20 years.

I have about 1,200 people below me on the list, 6 years of seniority, and it still looks like I won't upgrade for another 14-15 years according to the program that was put together for SWA and AAI pilots, which takes age 65 retirements into account along with aircraft delivery schedules and scheduled aircraft retirement, along with a growth percentage you can plug in. Using 2% yearly growth, the numbers aren't stellar. Using that 2% and about 200-250 retirements per year average (give or take), the junior plug on the list won't upgrade for 20-21 years.

As Scoreboard said, if you're a military retiree, or a regional guy/gal in your mid-40's, there's a risk you might not upgrade at Southwest. That said, the airline industry is a crap shoot. Today's darling can often be tomorrow's dog, and vice-versa. Targeting only one specific airline in this industry is betting on 13 black on a roulette wheel; not great odds. You're better off going after EVERY good job, then taking the one that hires you. If you're one of the lucky 1% who has a CHOICE of carriers, pick the one that suits your personality. Being happy at work is much more important than the left seat (although the pay bump helps).

 

[outerlimits]

A lot of those Airtran guys are really young. How many age 65 retirements do you have over the next 5-10 years?


Godspeed!


The OYSter

Ok I am lost . Does Jonj work for Southwest ?

 

[Candide]

The short term prospect for upgrade at SWA is not great. The company needs to integrate 1700 Airtran pilots, replace its antediluvian reservations system, retire ~175 Classic aircraft, and, according to management, replace or remove 88 B-717s.

But if you look to the last half of the decade and later, upgrades should start to accelerate. While we don't have quite as good numbers as many of the legacies, there will be about 1270 Age 65 retirements through 2020. More importantly, we have 597 orders or options on 737NG and MAX aircraft. Near international flying is coming and could very well pave the way to more distant international. This would require a new airframe with a higher pilot/aircraft ratio which could--at least temporarily--bring us back to the good old days of pilot growth. The days of 5 year upgrades are probably over but there are feasible scenarios that are pretty bright. And while you wait for upgrade, mid to senior FO pay is comparable to or better than a lot of Part 121 Captain rates.

SWA pilots who look at the depressing verdict of the SWAPA seniority projector (which assumes zero growth) are smart to do so. Hope for the best, plan for the worst, etc., etc.. I do think we need to balance that with more optimistic scenarios, however, especially for guys and gals considering SWA.

So if you're someone considering applying to SWA and you're 1) a good pilot, 2) don't take yourself too seriously and 3) are pleasant to spend a 3 day trip with, I say come on over! The crystal ball is a bit fuzzier, but I think the future is still bright and you'll start getting a tan on the left side of your face sooner than you may think. If you're lacking in any of those 3 categories, I'd say avoid this place like the plague: you're apt to languish in the right seat for your entire, dismal career.

 

[Lear70]

SWA pilots who look at the depressing verdict of the SWAPA seniority projector (which assumes zero growth) are smart to do so. Hope for the best, plan for the worst, etc., etc.. I do think we need to balance that with more optimistic scenarios, however, especially for guys and gals considering SWA.

Take a look at www.myseniority.com Available only for SWA and AAI pilots, it takes the current combined pilot list, all known age 65 retirements, and allows you to put in your own guess on yearly growth average... 1.5%, 2%, 3%, whatever, then shows you where you'll be each year on the relative global seniority list.

Handy tool for doing what you're talking about, inputting a more realistic growth scenario than 0.

 

[CDub]

Thanks gentlemen. I appreciate your honest, thought out replies. I just wanted to get confirmation on what was shared with me by a random Southwest pilot I met the other day.

I guess I shouldn't be but I'm shocked that upgrades are being projected so far out for Southwest... Even with the merger.

 

[General Lee]

One thing that doesn't help your cause is your "one type" aircraft approach. It's great for your company, no doubt, but for pilot movement it is not. It's called "derivative" aircraft, and you can simplify training, mx parts, etc. Saves you big bucks. When you do eventually get rid of those 717s, then you only have to have two replacements for one retirement. When the senior SWA guy leaves, one senior FO moves up to 737 Captain, and SWA then hires a newhire. When a legacy loses a widebody Captain, then a narrowbody body Capt moves up to the widebody, the Narrowbody FO moves up to Narrowbody Captian, and down the line, which could mean multiple training events, all the way down to newhire. That does cost a lot of money for the airline, but the airline decides which types of planes need to be on which routes, and it is their decision. INTL and DOM operations usually have different types of planes.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[humveedriver]

Well you can't have it both ways can General. I will gladly take SWA approach to single fleet at the expense of pilot movement. Especially when the fleet is transport category. We actually wanted Boeing to add a aux tank and a fuselage plug to the 717 so we could stay single fleet. But there just weren't any other buyers. Plus the 800 and 900 open some doors too. It seems to be working for Alaska too. I get what your saying, but profitability is way more important to me than flying twin aisle.