SWA drops other shoe?

[IronCityBlue]

do What?

Heh, heh!:laugh: :laugh:

Ways to get back to being a dominant carrier:

• Buy the 175.....and SWA would feel free to compete in the smaller markets and be profitable again on routes other than TX & left coast. Sell off the rest of the 733s

So, buy significantly higher CASM planes (starting a second fleet type in the process) that just so happen to be plagued with mx issues, from a supplier who can't handle its delivery commitments already on the books, and dump many of their really reliable, lower CASM money makers. :laugh: Well I guess since you own shares...uh, I mean, since that has worked so incredibly well for JetBlue thus far, I can see why you think it would "plug and play" at SWA.

• Take the pilot rates down 20%

I'm sure that if faced with saving their company from liquidating the SW pilots would make the painful decision to lower their pay by that ammount, but that's not the case now, is it? It seems as though you are salivating in typical managerial style about the savings you could achieve by reducing pay by an arbitrary ammount, apply that savings to the bottom line to boost your short term stock price, go running to the BOD to take credit for what you did, negotiate a massive retention bonus for yourself in the form of more money than your great grandchildren could ever spend and head for the hills.

• Take the FA pay down 20%

Ya there ya go, that'll get the ship back on track.

• Oh hell, take all employees down 20%

Hey Frank, you wanna take this one? But seriouslly, do you really think its as simple as "reduce pay 20%, apply savings to bottom line, enjoy profits?" Even if that ammount of labor pay helped bring back massive profit margins, those profits would forever be a reminder to the workers who gave up the pay (or had it taken from them by millionaire managers) just exactly where the money for that 40 year old brandy and Pebble Beach greens fees came from.

Mister, I knew Sir Isaac Newton. I studied physics with Sir Isaac Newton. You sir, are no Sir Isaac Newton. Pass that legacy dutchie you're pinching to your left hand side and think for just a moment about the equal and opposite reaction from labor that would result from your little "looks dandy on paper!" labor cost reduction "final solution". Maybe labor suddenly gets 20% less productive. Maybe they call in sick 20% more. Stop caring 20, 30, 50% as much. Stop doing 80% as many favors for the company. What? You mean you didn't take that into consideration and you've already spent the money, oh so sorry?

• go assigned seating

Now there's a good idea! Its hard to immagine why such a rookie management team has continued to overlook that all these decades. This isn't cold fusion. They've looked extensively at this. The day it makes them more money they will go assigned seating. Right now that day has not arrived. Move along now, nothing to see here.

This would take the company back 10 years or so, but it would also produce a carrier that could again compete on price in lieu of future's contracts. Will it happen?......just ask the goat in the AFLAC commercial.....Naaaaaaaa!

imp: ​

The SWA business model is still kicking tail and taking names. Its so easy a caveman could do it. They certainly face challenges going forward (good thing no one else does, phew!) and profit margins will probably not be as high as in years past, especially as a company that size gets bigger. That's almost always the case. That's normal and does not call for the devistating buisness plan going forward that you've advocated. Rest assured though, they can and will adapt to survive.

 

[lowecur]

The SWA business model is still kicking tail and taking names. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Its so easy a caveman could do it. The cavemen are extinct because they got lost in the evolution shuffle. The handwriting is on the cave wall, but the only one that sees it is SWA mgt. Yeah, Gary would be amenable to changing the business model if he had the support of the employee groups. Instead they will ride the ship to the bottom like all the employee groups before them. You see, no matter how good mgt is to these hackers, they always try to shift the blame on their backs. They certainly face challenges going forward (good thing no one else does, phew!) and profit margins will probably not be as high as in years past, especially as a company that size gets bigger. Ya think so? That's almost always the case. That's normal and does not call for the devistating buisness plan going forward that you've advocated. Rest assured though, they can and will adapt to survive.

If they get to the point AMR did before employees decide to take a haircut, divest themselves of the 733 and add the 175 (same pay scale), stop subsidizing unprofitable routes with TX/Left Coast piggybank.....then they face the possibility of losing it all. Only saving grace is the legacy's will implode before they do.

imp:​

 

[mdf]

All this recent SWA hype! I was going to let it go, but here goes. It really is amateur night when Lowercur, and YPF come out. Wall street goes in little cycles of creating entry, and exit points in the markets for themselves. All the recent negative SWA talk is just one of those. I would like to see who's buying. They are really pushing the LBO angle, and believe me no one want's to be left out if that goes down. The last 500 million dollar stock buyback by GK really put a kink in their hose, and now it's payback time. Their going to try, and push the stock lower to make the LBO numbers look better. They pumped and dumped Jet Blue, made some money on UAUA, and are working on NWA, and Delta as we speak. They are really going to have some fun with the Skybus thing too. There never seems to be a shortage of people willing to put money in this business. The $65/hr check airman of tommorow aren't going to make it better either. Some of you experts on this board want to talk about fundamentals. That's all great, and I am really impressed, but none of the Wall Street clowns care about any of that stuff. That's just stuff they can throw out to sell their case. They are marketers, perception is reality. You wan't to know what a companies worth? Add up what they have, and what you can get for it in the open market. Some of guys with hard on's for SWA like to use this stuff to get people riled up. This is just the fleecing of the average american once again, like has gone on for years. That includes you, so keep smiling they love you on Wall Street!

 

[lowecur]

All this recent SWA hype! I was going to let it go, but here goes. It really is amateur night when Lowercur, and YPF come out. Wall street goes in little cycles of creating entry, and exit points in the markets for themselves. All the recent negative SWA talk is just one of those. I would like to see who's buying. They are really pushing the LBO angle, and believe me no one want's to be left out if that goes down. The last 500 million dollar stock buyback by GK really put a kink in their hose, and now it's payback time. Their going to try, and push the stock lower to make the LBO numbers look better. They pumped and dumped Jet Blue, made some money on UAUA, and are working on NWA, and Delta as we speak. They are really going to have some fun with the Skybus thing too. There never seems to be a shortage of people willing to put money in this business. The $65/hr check airman of tommorow aren't going to make it better either. Some of you experts on this board want to talk about fundamentals. That's all great, and I am really impressed, but none of the Wall Street clowns care about any of that stuff. That's just stuff they can throw out to sell their case. They are marketers, perception is reality. You wan't to know what a companies worth? Add up what they have, and what you can get for it in the open market. Some of guys with hard on's for SWA like to use this stuff to get people riled up. This is just the fleecing of the average american once again, like has gone on for years. That includes you, so keep smiling they love you on Wall Street!

Thank you PT Barnum!

I have just jumped out of my first story bedroom. I landed on the Travelocity Gnome, and we both asked each other if we were going to die? Then I realized the whole world is a stage and we are just it's players....or something like that.

imp:​

 

[Lear70]

I am glad that your great negotiating committee brought you a great TA. We all want good pay as pilots. It is ironic though that you are proud that your CASM won't be going up due to pilot pay. We are proud of our pay here. No regrets whatsoever. We can manage costs without taking it away from the hard-working pilot group.

Happy Flying,

RB

BWAAAAAHAHAHAHHAHA!

I'm sorry, that was funny...

Now where's my beer?

Seriously, not bashing SWA pilots AT ALL, your pilot pay is in a league our NC won't hope to match anytime soon. Just needed a good laugh after studying this T.A. this afternoon.

My 727 non-flexing friend had a healthy dose of sarcasm in his earlier post...

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

I would for sure. I'd buy all the LUV I could. And this time I don't mean escorts.

Yeah, I'll bet a correction of 50% in the stock price would make you guys whoop for joy.

imp:​

 

[IronCityBlue]

now that's a plan!

If they get to the point AMR did before employees decide to take a haircut, divest themselves of the 733 and add the 175 (same pay scale), stop subsidizing unprofitable routes with TX/Left Coast piggybank.....then they face the possibility of losing it all. Only saving grace is the legacy's will implode before they do.

imp:​

So piss off the hardest working airline employees out there, throw a wrench in your operations by buying a proven high CASM P.O.S., increase turn times, decrease utalization, grow in the most overcrowded, highest capacity markets in the country absolutely flooded with capacity and delays (with aforementioned higher CASM P.O.S. equipment) and follow AMR management's lead giving their workers a "haircut" all to bolster the bottom line. You hear that SWA? Y'all get right on that now, ya here! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, the workers at AMR want their money back, and they want it yesterday.

 

[328dude]

BWAAAAAHAHAHAHHAHA!

I'm sorry, that was funny...

Now where's my beer?

Seriously, not bashing SWA pilots AT ALL, your pilot pay is in a league our NC won't hope to match anytime soon. Just needed a good laugh after studying this T.A. this afternoon.

My 727 non-flexing friend had a healthy dose of sarcasm in his earlier post...

Lear:

First off, good luck with your TA. I've spoken to a few of my own friends over there and they all seem to think that the TA is crap and needs a resounding "No" vote before the NC will wake up. I hope it works out for you guys and you get what you deserve.

 

[lowecur]

So piss off the hardest working airline employees out there then let the payroll stay where it's at or give em more money...hell they're worth it.....they can always raise ticket prices or buy more futures, throw a wrench in your operations by buying a proven high CASM P.O.S.,Yeah, that's why the 190 has over 400 firm orders and B6 will continue their net growth and likely cut the 320 to 0 or negative growth the increase turn times splain yourself lucy?, decrease utalization You mean because of that Uraguan domiciled Honeywell?, grow in the most overcrowded, highest capacity markets in the country absolutely flooded with capacity and delays.. they're doing that now and losing their shirt running horrible LF's on those oversized 737s. (with aforementioned higher CASM P.O.S. equipment) and follow AMR management's lead giving their workers a "haircut" all to bolster the bottom line. You hear that SWA? Y'all get right on that now, ya here! :bawling: :bawling: :bawling:

Oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, the workers at AMR want their money back, and they want it yesterday. OK...I vote we give it to them yesterday and raise ticket prices

Do you buy only made in the USA? Just a hunch!

imp: ​

 

[Flycatcher99]

"then let the payroll stay where it's at or give em more money...hell they're worth it....."

Gary Kelly must think we're worth it. Are you saying we aren't? Like I've posted before, our pay isn't high because we've passed everyone, but because every other "legacy" airline has shafted their pilots and ripped the pay and pensions out from under them.

Here are the points that you really aren't capable of grasping: mgmt has said that they want to pay us what they are, the pilots at SWA are very pleased with our present pay, we aren't asking for more, and if our mgmt ever comes to us with dire news that we absolutely must shave labor costs in order to save our company, our pilots are ones who will do so. I know your wisdom is incredibly vast, but I surmise that it's difficult for you to comprehend that our relationship with mgmt is not what you will find at any other airline.

"Yeah, that's why the 190 has over 400 firm orders..."

In related news, Chevrolet sells millions of Cavaliers. I know, because my wife has owned three of them over a span of four years. (Prior to my involvement, let the record show. She now drives a Toyota.)

Embraers sell because they're one thing: Cheap. And that's not just reflected in their price.

"...they're doing that now and losing their shirt running horrible LF's on those oversized 737s."

Losing our shirt? Good grief, you're losing credibility with every goofy utterance that comes out of your mouth. I could name about 10 majors in this country that wish they could have "lost as many shirts" as SWA has over the last 6 years.

"Oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, the workers at AMR want their money back, and they want it yesterday. ...OK...I vote we give it to them yesterday and raise ticket prices"

You dodged the point. AMR will raise the pilots' pay to refund some of the 30+% cuts and match the $700 million bonus that one man at the top received. They had better, or there will be major labor hell to pay. Come back at that time and compare CASM.

 

[IronCityBlue]

SWA is doomed, part XXXIV

Do you buy only made in the USA? Just a hunch!

imp: ​

No, not always, but I do when I can, and it is definately something I take into consideration when making consumer decisions. This applies to the thread how by the way?

then let the payroll stay where it's at or give em more money...hell they're worth it.....they can always raise ticket prices or buy more futures

Um, okay, let's pay all employees 10 billion dollars per hour then, right? Of course there's a point of employee compensation where beyond it you can not remain in business. Apparently you think SWA is beyond that point, and I do not agree with you. Neither do the employees of Southwest. Oh yeah, and neither does Southwest management. The hourly rates of many of their employees is higher than what is now industry standard, but first of all industry standard will come up, and second of all SWA employees on average are more productive than their peers across the industry. Full time employee equivalant of around 65 per plane, while most other LCC's are in the 70's and 80's, and many airlines are in the 90's.

I'm sure your big beef is with pilot pay, but their pilots spend every waking second trying to save every drop of fuel humanly possible, increase productivity and do more with less. Your little gem of an idea for 20% pay cuts just because (or just to please investment houses) would backfire on them in a way I don't think you are able to even immagine. You believe employees are nothing more than carbon based financial liabilities. Southwest belives the customer is king, and their employee is their number one customer. In turn, their employees have an ingrained loyality and vested stake in their company these fly by night quarterly report obsessed Harvard mercenaries may only have read about once or twice in undergrad way back when.

Like it or not, that loyalty pays huge financial dividends. If they imposed 20% pay cuts just to pick what any no talent hack manager typically views as low hanging fruit (anything related to labor cost) they would probably have to hire at least 20% more employees to cover the inevitable industry standard apathy that would result. Again, I'm sure SWA employees will be the first to step up to save their company from ruin if and when it comes to that. But I don't think they would take too kindly to being beat down while very profitable just to become a little more profitable.


Yeah, that's why the 190 has over 400 firm orders

It has over 400 firm orders because A) it looks amazing on paper, B) it is enjoying a very temporary monopoly on the "true" 100 seater market and C) customers think the bugs will be worked out very shortly. Its been in service for almost a year and a half, and mechanically its an absolute joke. Even fresh off the assembly line planes are unfit for delivery. They can't meet their order obligations, and while they are hiring more workers they are also bringing a large ammount of additional work in house (i.e. the wing) so that will neutralize the benefit of much of that additional headcount. Not to mention that the last thing EMB needs right now is a "let's push these things out the door even faster" business model.

Look, I was a fan of the plane when it first came out. Like I said, it looks great on paper, and its cabin doesn't suck as much as an RJ. But it came out of the factory a POS and is still a POS today. It would be an absolute operational disaster for an airline like SWA to bring that airplane online into their fast moving, high utilazation, quick turn environment. I don't think there is an airliner for sale that would be a worse choice for them than the E170/190 series would be right now, and likely will be for a very long time.

and B6 will continue their net growth and likely cut the 320 to 0 or negative growth

Chatter around the schoolyard is selling another 5, while still getting 12 or so this year. But you might be right, maybe we will sell 10. I think you are wrong in a previous post where you said we need to have 75 320's. With so many large markets unserved by our network right now, and with the planes we have flying effectively full (its hard to do much more than 85% load factor system wide before the resulting stress expoentially drags down the bottom line) and yields are rising significantly. Parking 25 320's and deferring all remaining ones would not be in the interest of the company or its shareholders.

That's not to say we haven't made mistakes. We have, and continue to do so. Here's a partial list: Cramming everything into JFK, all at the same time, no matter what. Social obligation based pricing. Over compensating customers even for delays which are not our fault. Allowing popular and well known consumer scams to go on unchecked for far too long (after you fly with your pet, call and say you never brought it and get a refund...check heavy bags and pay the fee with cash, which we didn't accept for a while...so it got waived...complain about anything whatsoever, legit or not, and get a voucher...fly out of LGA cheaper than JFK, etc.) Poor marketing based primarily on unsustainable intro fares. Walking over dollars to pick up nickles: Poor crew/plane tracking during mass weather events. Telling employees who are compensated below industry average that their pay is under review and then telling them that the review is complete and they are properly compensated and merely need to be "educated" as to how. Using above average productivity against said employees in aforementioned comensation review, only to be forced by a pitchfork carrying mob to back off the rhetoric and finally try to make things right, etc. Insufficient fuel hedging even when every possible indicator screams price increases are coming. And oh yeah, the E190, especially as the launch customer, but in any case, the E190. Without a doubt the single biggest mistake in JetBlue's short history thus far.

the increase turn times splain yourself lucy?,

Uh, ok shurly. The E190 is a piss poor high utilization aircraft compared to the workhorse 737 first of all. Second of all you advocate putting it in delay infested operating enviroments which is a double whammy. Ergo, turn times will increase dramatically over what SWA is used to, and/or the flights would have to be padded for POS effect. Either way, no 20 minute turns all day in the E190, much less in busy east coast markets. Get it? Got it? Good.

You mean because of that Uraguan domiciled Honeywell?,

Ok, you're smarter than me. I did not get that.

grow in the most overcrowded, highest capacity markets in the country absolutely flooded with capacity and delays.. they're doing that now and losing their shirt running horrible LF's on those oversized 737s.

Losing their shirt? Yeah, half a billion in profits really does suck. Oversized 737's? Must be all those -800's and -900's they have. Better start a second (POS) fleet type just to get something slightly smaller.

(Oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, the workers at AMR want their money back, and they want it yesterday. OK...I vote we give it to them yesterday and raise ticket prices

They gave/were forced to give so much because either the doors would close if they did not, or they were led to believe they would. They have turned the corner and that's no longer the case. They remember their little "haircut" as you call it. No worker will sit idle and watch painful life altering concessions fund mass executive bonuses and billion dollar wall street profits. Actually, maybe they will sit idle.:erm:

 

[lowecur]

I am exhausted just reading your reply. Glad to hear you buy foreign if the price and quality is good.....which is probably 90% of the time.

Could you just impart the primary cause of why the launch customer had so many utilization problems with the 190, and do you expect the utilization rate to match the 320 by year end? Incidently, ERJ has been almost a 4 bagger for me.

Do you have an application in at SWA? If you do...........it's going to be a long wait till they get to you.

imp:​

 

[scoreboard]

Could you just impart the primary cause of why the launch customer had so many utilization problems with the 190, .
:nuts:

Sure, it's a POS. The 190 is a Yugo to Boeings Town Car.

 

[lowecur]

Sure, it's a POS. The 190 is a Yugo to Boeings Town Car.

Oh, you mean person, you!

By the way, are you still passing out when pulling 2Gs?:smash: Eat a few more cheetos.

imp:​

 

[scoreboard]

Oh, you mean person, you!

By the way, are you still passing out when pulling 2Gs? Eat a few more cheetos.

:cartman:​

No, I mean the 190 is junk, it's a paper airplane, looks good on paper, operates like junk in the real world.

I don't get your passing out comment.

 

[TAWS]

I heard that JB didn't pay for the software uploads that come with the aircraft - they are wayyyy behind Republic, in terms of uploads, which cure many of the operational problems (common type = common uploads??). Any truth to this?

BTW, the Guppy is a far superior product and can carry cargo aswell - imagine that!!

 

[Bake]

When are you guys going to stop arguing with the Low one. He is a flamer with the total intent of taking up the a$$ from one of you. He is seeking you out so that your manhood can be in his mouth. Please stop arguing with womanhood.

 

[SWA/FO]

sweet Bake....

 

[Quimby]

Oh, you mean person, you!

By the way, are you still passing out when pulling 2Gs?:smash: Eat a few more cheetos.

imp:​

how's your desk fly?

 

[lowecur]

When are you guys going to stop arguing with the Low one. He is a flamer with the total intent of taking up the a$$ from one of you. He is seeking you out so that your manhood can be in his mouth. Please stop arguing with womanhood.

Classy, Halfbaked. I'm sure your relatives informed the local mounties when you moved to town. Looking forward to seeing you soon on "To catch a predator."

imp:​