SWA drops other shoe?

[Quimby]

Yeah, I'll bet a correction of 50% in the stock price would make you guys whoop for joy.

imp:​

back to your cubicle, office boy.:smash:

and quit stealing staplers.......

 

[ivauir]

An all B737 fleet with a CASM only 1 cent lower is actually a higher CASM than a multiple Boeing fleet flying a world wide route structure.

Support? Wide bodies have inherently lower CASM (more seats - many of the same fixed costs). Also, 1 cent is about 15% difference - pretty significant. Our costs are low and the pressure is on to lower them ... who else has that trend? (outside of bankruptcy). All of the legacies are going to experience significant labor pressure (rightfully so) and the other LCCs have aging fleets and labor forces to contend with - SWA is stable on both fronts.

There are plenty of things for SWA folks to worry about - but the legacies competing with us on cost is not one of them (until the next round of bankruptcies - which I hope never comes).

Do any of you SWA bashers remember when the pundits thought the fuel hedging program was a waste on money? I do. Some of you act like SWA has never slowed growth before or seen hard times. Someday we'll remember when the stock was languishing at 14 and we'll wish we bought more. Especially lowecur... he'll be telling all of the insurance dudes at the convention (I picture a lot of "van by the river" stories) that he almost made the big time ... if only he'd shorted Embrar and bought LUV ...

 

[lowecur]

How can you tell when airline mgt is lost?

When reactive decisions begin to overtake proactive. Just ask David Neeleman.

imp:​

 

[SWA/FO]

I think he was referring to profit growth of 15 percent a year that is expected to erode .

I look for growth forcast to be reduced to single digits in the near future. Another, I told you so....by lowecur.

Looks like he typed "growth" to me.

Hey SWA/FO I thought I heard you attended upgrade... Shouldn't it be SWA/CAPT? If so congrats...

not yet, my brother..... but soon they keep telling me.

The only frickin morons I see is a SWAPA pilot trying to destroy the profession with this age 65 crap.

ALPA too..... "destroy the profession" GMAFB. ALPA has done a fine job of this within the last 5-8 years. SWAPA # 1

 

[Red Baron]

Actually, Airtran's nonfuel CASM is lower than Southwest and was down 5% Q1 2007 vs Q1 2006 while Southwest was up about 1.5% year over year. And with our great negotiating committee bringing us such a great TA, Airtran's CASM won't be going up in the near term due to pilot pay.


I am glad that your great negotiating committee brought you a great TA. We all want good pay as pilots. It is ironic though that you are proud that your CASM won't be going up due to pilot pay. We are proud of our pay here. No regrets whatsoever. We can manage costs without taking it away from the hard-working pilot group.

Happy Flying,

RB

 

[Flycatcher99]

Yes SWA is a penny lower but the legacies operate expensive wide bodies flying an international route structure with higher distribution costs associated with international travel. SWA's domestic B737 operation does not have those expenses and is just 1 cent lower in CASM.

Plus the revenues off a wide body far exceed that possible from a small narrow body so while the legacies have a 1 cent higher CASM they have a much greater RASM.

An all B737 fleet with a CASM only 1 cent lower is actually a higher CASM than a multiple Boeing fleet flying a world wide route structure.

SWA costs are up. The question is how will SWA control those costs without double digit growth? Zero to single digit growth won't control costs.

Actually, legacies' costs are down, but only temporarily. Do you really think the legacies will stay where they are?? Right now they're getting their cake and eating it too. Revenues are up, labor costs are ridiculously and inaccurately low. SWA's labor is only high right now with respect to where everyone else is, which is to say that SWA's labor costs should really be compared with what will happen in the next few years at AA, USAir, Delta, NWA, etc.

It's easy to rip on SWA's costs when everyone else is enjoying great revenues at raped-labor prices. Things will even out, and if they don't at certain carriers, we'll all be watching some great strike action.

 

[maxblast72]

Sorry, I guess you couldn't see the sarcasm in the initial post on our "great" TA. No chance of that piece of crap passing with our Q1 2007 results and projected 2007 and 2008 profits (we went from an operational loss of 13 million Q1 2006 to an operating profit of 11 million Q1 2007 as Delta rationalized their domestic capacity to come out of bankruptcy). Expectations were higher than CASM neutral for most of our pilots.

We aren't as productive and effecient (more flying with more days off) as Southwest pilots yet but are trying to get there with the new contract. Hopefully the pay will reflect that we are the second hardest working pilot group behind you guys.

 

[YourPilotFriend]

Do you think the legacy CASMs will remain this low going forward? I don't.

That's the point isn't it? If the CASM is going up for all airlines we will see capacity drop off. The only reason SW did not share in the fortunes of the legacies after 911/economy slow down, is because the cost structure at SW was low enough to take the hit. Remember, prior to 911 SW was making over a billion dollars in operational profit with a fleet only half the size it is now and about the same number of employees.

READ...ALL AIRLINES WILL TAKE A HIT IN THE COMING YEARS. The airline that will win at the end of the day, is the one that can park 100's of planes at a whim. It doesn't matter if SW still has a $10 fare, the costs associated with taking a vacation is not dependent on air fare price alone. Tickets right now are extremely cheap and still demand is softening.

 

[BoilerUP]

Tickets right now are extremely cheap and still demand is softening.

Wouldn't know demand is softening by all the full flights I'm flying on small jets for the worst performing major carrier in the United States...

 

[Charlie Brown]

Heh, heh!:laugh: :laugh:

Ways to get back to being a dominant carrier:

• Buy the 175.....and SWA would feel free to compete in the smaller markets and be profitable again on routes other than TX & left coast. Sell off the rest of the 733s.
• Take the pilot rates down 20%
• Take the FA pay down 20%
• Oh hell, take all employees down 20%
• go assigned seating

This would take the company back 10 years or so, but it would also produce a carrier that could again compete on price in lieu of future's contracts. Will it happen?......just ask the goat in the AFLAC commercial.....Naaaaaaaa!

imp: ​

I wasn't going to respond to this, but I just can't help it. I usually find some of your observations interesting at the least, and I dare say some things you have said in the past almost make sense. However I now think that little smoking man icon may be you with a crack pipe.

Why would a company want to buy a smaller airplane, thereby reducing the potential for profit (read: seats) when they own larger frames, with the parts, training, and equipment already in place? Times will not always be this bad.

SWA has already explored the concept of assigned seating. It would increase the turn-around times, and we all know an airplane ain't making any $$$ sitting at a gate looking pretty. In addition to that fact, all pax (customers) indicated they were in favor of keeping open seating. I think if anything, this would cost money rather than save it.

As for cutting all pay 20%, where did you get this number? Not that it really matters though, because there are plenty of prime examples of how trying to cut costs on the backs of your employees just doesn't work.