SWA/Airtran Process Agreement??

[GhettoBeechjet]

Not sure what you mean here. Usually, when people say "in the desert" it means mothballed. 717 uses less fuel than 737NG and the leases must be paid whether they fly or not. Given that the 717 costs 20% less to operate, they're not likely to be parked, so you must mean PHX or LAS based?


I'm talking ground service equipment and personnel, gates, maintenance, etc, plus cross-selling destinations. For example, Pensacola to Orange County, or Lubbock to San Juan, PR.

There are (or were) a few dozen 717's down in Mehico that Boeing wanted us to find a home for. . . . . not sure what Boeing's 737 order book looks like right now or what is on the open market.

Last I heard there were no NG airplanes on the market right now. There was a rumor of a 25 or so more airplanes from Virgin Blue but even if thats true they will most likely be used as replacement airframes not growth airframes. Boeing is backlogged for years on 737 production.


Ty's a bidnessman, but my business isn't the airline business . . . . . I'd be interested to hear what some other folks think.

I was refering to the Midwest 717s that were supposed to be sent to Mexicana. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that they are now mothballed and in the desert. What I meant was that I think that those 717s will replace some of the 737 classics.
I understood what you meant by connecting the networks. I think that the fleet capacity to accomplish this will come out of the route overlap and capacity pulled from less profitable markets
SWA paid $1 billion for AAI. Ghetto went to public school in Indiana but according to my math to hit the 15 percent AAI would have to make 150,000,000 per year to start to justify growth. SWA needs to make roughly $1 Billion per year per that metric to justify growth. In the present market I just don't see us even combined approaching those numbers.

 

[Ty Webb]

I was refering to the Midwest 717s that were supposed to be sent to Mexicana. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that they are now mothballed and in the desert. What I meant was that I think that those 717s will replace some of the 737 classics.

I see that now. Coffee hadn't kicked in yet. I suppose that is certainly a possibility, but what would that mean for the -800's that were going to be replacements for -300's and -500's?

I understood what you meant by connecting the networks. I think that the fleet capacity to accomplish this will come out of the route overlap and capacity pulled from less profitable markets

Also a possibility . . . I don't know enough about the load factors, ASM's, RASM's etc to really know for certain. I do know that our planes are mostly full, as are yours, and it stands to reason that by "connecting the dots" that there will be new point-to-points that weren't supportable before.

SWA paid $1 billion for AAI. Ghetto went to public school in Indiana but according to my math to hit the 15 percent AAI would have to make 150,000,000 per year to start to justify growth. SWA needs to make roughly $1 Billion per year per that metric to justify growth. In the present market I just don't see us even combined approaching those numbers.

Not to sound like Clinton, but I guess that would depend on the definition of "growth". For example, right now, SWA is hiring 200-400 pilots this year. Is that growth? If you're the bottom guy, or the guy on the cusp of upgrade, it is.

Again, I don't know all the answers, and perhaps I am being overly optimistic, but I am very enthusiastic about the possibilities. I think we all know that being part of a growing airline is a great feeling. I hope everyone gets to experience it, especially the guys hired in the last 4 or 5 years that have been on the bottom.

 

[Monkey Face]

Ty, I find it interesting that you chose to make a comparison in 1989. So let's do just that.

In 1989, while SWA pilots were flying for a good wage (and making plenty more in profit sharing and stock options)

Um, let's see, the stock options started with the 1994 contract.

 

[canyonblue]

Just curious Gup, what made you buy the type and go to WN before they "made real money"?

Heck, let me answer that one for me...it was Southwest!

Why do people go to the Playboy Mansion? Southwest is the MOST coveted Airline to work for in the WORLD. Do you notice just how many Legacy pilots flock to any Southwest thread, they can't even find this much excitement at their own Airline, and they want to be a part of it. No other Airline can generate the amount of Forum space that is equal to Southwest. It is, and will continue to be, a place that everyone wants to be a part of.

 

[slaquer5]

Heck, let me answer that one for me...it was Southwest!

Why do people go to the Playboy Mansion? Southwest is the MOST coveted Airline to work for in the WORLD. Do you notice just how many Legacy pilots flock to any Southwest thread, they can't even find this much excitement at their own Airline, and they want to be a part of it. No other Airline can generate the amount of Forum space that is equal to Southwest. It is, and will continue to be, a place that everyone wants to be a part of.

Could not have been said better.

 

[dh82dvr]

Southwest is the MOST coveted Airline to work for in the WORLD.

Pretty bold statement right there!

I would agree that SWA holds that position in this country, but for the rest of the world?

 

[MINIME]

Ty, I find it interesting that you chose to make a comparison in 1989. So let's do just that.

In 1989, while SWA pilots were flying for a good wage (and making plenty more in profit sharing and stock options), several hundred future AirTran pilots were crossing a line at Eastern. They were making the statement to the rest of the industry that they will gladly stab their brothers in the back for their own gain. (That's likely why your management simply yawned at your 98% strike vote!)

And about that gain. They gained employement at an airline run by the very Eastern management they sold out for. Eventually, one of the worst (an Eastern 'street captain', or replacement player) was elected as your union's president. In that position, he helped negotiate the first of several sub-standard contracts. That is until the announcement of SWA's intent to acquire AAI. What a proud history indeed.

Ok, every other point you are making might be accurate. I don't know for sure.

However, your insinuation that AAI pilots got the contract they finally got due to the SWA announcement, is misleading. Yes that is the time when it finally happened. It happened because management probably wanted it done and didn't need the bad press that was sure to follow. Too much new mula was at stake.

The part that you are not explaining is that the AAI pilots were led to believe by the NMB, in no uncertain terms, that they would not be released to strike once the announcement was made. The NMB was relieved when the announcement was made! They did not want to take the chance and risk adding to the country's unemployment numbers. Especially when the mid term elections were around the corner! Yes, if you didn't know, the authorization for an airline pilot group to strike goes all the way to the White House. And, as you can imagine, in Washington you/I are not that important. The flavor of the day is more important.

Were the AAI pilots ready to strike? Were they serious when they voted 98%? My gut feeling is that they were. They'd been in negotiations for nearly 5 years. The meat of the group was a lot younger and hungrier than the older ones you mention. Once the strike authorization would have been granted, just the FOs and younger CAs alone would have created an effective strike. And, I've not doubt that at least these guys/gals would have walked. For better or for worse, they would have done it.

So don't kid yourself. For immediate gains for the Airtran pilot group, the SWA announcement was a hindrance more than a helping hand. If you have an understanding of the RLA and the NMB, you would understand that a union/pilot group is entirely at their mercy. And if you've been paying attention, these government controlled entities are stacked up against the employees.

This is why I don't understand why some on the SWA side act as if they don't trust their CEOs direction. So many years of excellent SWA management can't buy him a smoother transition?

Reason I say this is because if SWA management wanted to treat you guys just like the rest of the industry, they could have. The laws are such that they could have easily used them against you. Trust me when I tell you this; you have the contract and bennies you currently have because your management wanted you to have them. That's not adversarial or demeaning of your efforts in any way. Simply that you need to understand what, and who you are dealing with. The RLA would back management all the way to the bank if they chose to be confrontational. However, SWA management chose the other road. The road to inclusion of their employees in the company's success.

Whether it was good for business, or, they thought you were the best looking pilot group in the world, it doesn't matter, they chose to go this direction. No identity really forced them. If push came to shove, the only effective way to force them is to strike. Good luck getting an authorization to do that! Not just now, but roughly for the last 15 years.

Now, don't mistake my words. I'm not suggesting that SWA pilots should have ever hinted at a strike. You have never had a reason for that to even cross your mind! On the contrary, I think you guys are blessed to have the management you have. Thus, the reason I get confused at the apparent lack of support that Mr. Kelly sometimes appears to have with this acquisition. Pardon the diatribe.........and my nosing around in your debate.

 

[waveflyer]

Ivair- well said- hedging is always misunderstood- speculators trash this idea, but the whole point of any hedging is to make a variable price constant so you know how to price your product. Remember in 2008 when airlines had to add fuel surcharges to tickets customers had already bought? Every advance ticket they sold was a money loser when oil shot up so fast. But bc SWA was hedged well, they their price of oil and could price correctly- any losses or gains are ancillary.

 

[waveflyer]

Minime- did you just say SWA was a hindrance? Seriously? Have you ever been through a strike?? I'm glad you'd have walked - but not getting a chance to walk is certainly not a hindrance- your entire post is pure conjecture- you can stop the good fight now- you aren't dealing w/ the same mgmt- so take a few breaths

 

[waveflyer]

There's a huge upside- talk of Europe - and S. America- taking advantage of the 2nd type and growing to smaller markets- and a third type in the mix- mgmt knows we have to compete better at long haul- exciting possibilities w/ the 73 replacement- just relax and try to see past your noses down the road -

We at swa are saying that if the model changes none- which it never has- we are the happiest:wealthiest pilots out there right now- bird in hand you know- but when you think of the possibilities... As Boyd says- the x factor in the industry is not just swa as we know it, but what Swa becomes.