SWA/Airtran Process Agreement??

[-9Capt]

If y'all choose arbitration, your sole argument will be that of a three year old- "Because its not fair!"

Good luck with that one.

Our sole argument? Really? Is that what you think?

Let's see, we bring new aircraft deliveries, a half dozen Caribbean/Mexican destinations, slots in the northeast, Class II navigation, two dozen + gates at the worlds busiest airport and let's see...hmm...oh yeah, expansion and upgrades.

 

[Lear70]

EXACTLY! bring on arbitration.

You know my one fear in all this...

The two Merger Committees come up with an SLI that's a little worse than what we at AAI thought would happen (slightly less than DOH but not greatly so, but WAY less than relative for ANY seniority/seat demographic), the ratio puts pilots from both sides in the middle and the bottom, basically what we would consider a "win" for SWA but without a staple and then,,, it fails SWA member ratification by a very small amount, basically the people that believe a staple is fair.

Then we go to arbitration... and the arbitrators rule on something much more favorable to AAI pilots. Basically SWA pilots giving up something "more than fair" and getting less than the negotiated SLI in the arbitration award and they become angry and bitter, thus ruining the culture.

Having experienced arbitration first-hand, I'm here to tell you... YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT AN ARBITRATOR MIGHT DO. They come up with their own ideas of right and wrong, even when it's contrary to what the vast majority would agree with, and they have a tendency to split awards to make both sides equally aggravated, thus ensuring they get future business. They're not appointed, they're CHOSEN by both sides in the strike/counter-strike process.

Knowing that, it would behoove EVERYONE to stop with the "we're going to kick your tail in arbitration" crap. Really... it doesn't help anyone, and the other side isn't buying it. On either side of the table. And it only serves to make people dig their heels in and not find a mutual solution "fair", or just say no out of spite. That kind of thing might lead us down a scenario you see above and that would be a very, very bad thing.

Be careful what you wish for in arbitration... Let the MC/NC do their jobs and remember that with arbitration, no matter HOW stacked you think the deck is in your favor, you have NO control of the outcome. More than one ruling went completely sideways from where either party expected to be, of that the history books are VERY clear on.

Just my .02 cents for the day. Ya'll fly safe now.

 

[Kharma Police]

You know my one fear in all this...

The two Merger Committees come up with an SLI that's a little worse than what we at AAI thought would happen (slightly less than DOH but not greatly so, but WAY less than relative for ANY seniority/seat demographic), the ratio puts pilots from both sides in the middle and the bottom, basically what we would consider a "win" for SWA but without a staple and then,,, it fails SWA member ratification by a very small amount, basically the people that believe a staple is fair.

Then we go to arbitration... and the arbitrators rule on something much more favorable to AAI pilots. Basically SWA pilots giving up something "more than fair" and getting less than the negotiated SLI in the arbitration award and they become angry and bitter, thus ruining the culture.

Having experienced arbitration first-hand, I'm here to tell you... YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT AN ARBITRATOR MIGHT DO. They come up with their own ideas of right and wrong, even when it's contrary to what the vast majority would agree with, and they have a tendency to split awards to make both sides equally aggravated, thus ensuring they get future business. They're not appointed, they're CHOSEN by both sides in the strike/counter-strike process.

Knowing that, it would behoove EVERYONE to stop with the "we're going to kick your tail in arbitration" crap. Really... it doesn't help anyone, and the other side isn't buying it. On either side of the table. And it only serves to make people dig their heels in and not find a mutual solution "fair", or just say no out of spite. That kind of thing might lead us down a scenario you see above and that would be a very, very bad thing.

Be careful what you wish for in arbitration... Let the MC/NC do their jobs and remember that with arbitration, no matter HOW stacked you think the deck is in your favor, you have NO control of the outcome. More than one ruling went completely sideways from where either party expected to be, of that the history books are VERY clear on.

Just my .02 cents for the day. Ya'll fly safe now.

Very good points. In my opinion, there are many at Southwest that have the perception that since they, "have nothing to gain from this" will vote down any proposal that isn't a staple. I believe it will all depend on what kind of incentives Daddy Gary throws at our stepbrothers to vote yes.

 

[jball2]

Personal opinion from a SWA guy who who took a step back for a while. I think it will be a negotiated solution that is very complex but when we see it most of us will say " I can see that." I bet it happens by July. JMHO.

 

[chase]

The article below is from Jan 2010:

AKRON, Ohio --AirTran Holdings Inc., operator of discount carrier AirTran Airways, reported record fourth quarter and annual profits this morning.
AirTran had net income of $134.7 million or 95 cents per diluted share for all of 2009 and net income of $17.1 million, or 11 cents per diluted share for the fourth quarter.


The carrier joined a small group of airlines that posted profits in the fourth quarter. Continental Airlines surprised analysts in announcing last week that it squeezed out a fourth-quarter profit of $85 million, or 60 cents a share.


AirTran executive Bob Fornara said his airline's results during one of the most trying economic times in decades "shows that customers are very attracted to our unique combination of high-quality, low-cost service."


Standard & Poor's on Monday upgraded its opinion on shares of AirTran Holdings to "buy" from "hold." S&P said AirTran has a bright outlook for 2010 and projected a 9 percent gain on revenues based on more ticket sales and higher pricing. It said the recent rise in fuel prices will cut earnings per share. But S&P said AirTran's shares trade at a large discount compared to its peers, giving the stock upside potential.


AirTran's said its annual net income was an improvement of over $400 million compared with 2008.

____________

Fast forward to the end of 2010 and lets see how the analysts predictions turned out.

At the end of 2010, AirTran had losses that totaled over $400m. The following is quoted from the SWA 10K for FY10
"As of December 31, 2010, AirTran had federal net operating loss carryforwards (“NOLs”) of approximately $477 million available to offset future taxable income, which are not currently subject to an annual limitation under Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code (the “Code”). The NOLs expire between 2017 and 2030."

My intent is not to slam my future brothers and sisters but to simply point out some fiscal realities to what transpired for 2010 financially. If I offended any AirTran persons, my apologies.

SWA will use these losses to offset future gains. While this is a plus short-term wise for SWA, it is not a badge of honor to have such losses that most airlines would point to as being a goal for a company to achieve.

I support the merger and am happy it is progressing forward; it is however not a merger of equals or similar companies financially healthwise either IMHO.

 

[Kharma Police]

Personal opinion from a SWA guy who who took a step back for a while. I think it will be a negotiated solution that is very complex but when we see it most of us will say " I can see that." I bet it happens by July. JMHO.

That would be wonderful, the sooner the better. I think it will be important to move as quickly as possible not only for our benefit but to counter any moves by Delta in Atlanta.

 

[jball2]

Delta is still in the board room trying to figure out what happened back in sept! ;-)

 

[Ty Webb]

It is not unlikely at all that the MC/NC will come up with something reasonable, and the "Baghdad Bobby and Billys", the "Orange Bellies" and the "Roughnecks" will vote it down, and the Arbitrators will hand down something far "worse" than what they voted down.

The pilots with the most unreasonable expectations will be the ones who will be bitter.

 

[Kharma Police]

Delta is still in the board room trying to figure out what happened back in sept! ;-)

Delta is a tough competitor and I would expect them to react very aggressively to Southwest's entry into ATL. It will be interesting!

 

[jball2]

For BOTH sides, it is aout knowing when to say yes. I have faith that the folks on the repective nc/mc teams, who are more intelligent than me, will come up with something palatable.