Stay and the new UAL or go to SWA?

[ToThePain]

My Math,

UAL/CAL retirements


2012 32
2013 399
2014 419
2015 382
2016 371
2017 431
2018 413
2019 424
2020 427

I think your numbers are off a bit. Here are the numbers I have for CAL/UAL and the rest of the airlines.

RETIREMENTS PER YEAR AT AGE 65

CAL(UAL NOT INCLUDED)
Year No.
2012 7
2013 183
2014 198
2015 186
2016 205
2017 210
2018 180
2019 194
2020 169
2021 188
2022 180
2023 187
2024 154
2025 156
2026 166
2027 167
2028 204
2029 154
2030 170
2031 119
3377

UAL Numbers (CAL NOT INCLUDED)

2012 263
2013 235
2014 231
2015 201
2016 167
2017 228
2018 246
2019 239
2020 271
2021 330
2022 305
2023 383
2024 356
2025 461
2026 508
2027 503
2028 574
2029 539
2030 561
2031 407
7008

Delta (NWA Included)

2009 6
2010 13
2011 15
2012 24
2013 139
2014 238
2015 278
2016 330
2017 386
2018 469
2019 558
2020 645
2021 830
2022 870
2023 824
2024 811
2025 727
2026 626
2027 522
2028 491
2029 485
2030 509
2031 449
2032 347
2033 271
2034 182
2035 122
2036 103
2037 19
11289

American

2010 0
2011 0
2012 5
2013 138
2014 225
2015 274
2016 262
2017 286
2018 363
2019 458
2020 550
2021 609
2022 661
2023 714
2024 726
2025 737
2026 711
2027 588
2028 498
2029 476
8281

 

[Captain X]

Those are some serious numbers! Just curious...what's your source for that info?

 

[skywdriver]

I put this together from numbers that were posted on the individual airlines combining CAL and UAL. Don't quote me on them, but should be relatively accurate. Sorry for the layout, I had trouble with the formatting.

Total Cumulative % of list
2013 469 469 3.74%
2014 441 910 7.26%
2015 406 1316 10.50%
2016 384 1700 13.56%
2017 439 2139 17.06%
2018 429 2568 20.48%
2019 432 3000 23.93%
2020 436 3436 27.41%
2021 515 3951 31.51%
2022 475 4426 35.30%
2023 549 4975 39.68%
2024 498 5473 43.65%
2025 592 6065 48.38%
2026 647 6712 53.54%
2027 633 7345 58.59%
2028 725 8070 64.37%
2029 662 8732 69.65%
2030 640 9372 74.75%
2031 636 10008 79.83%
2032 451 10459 83.43%
2033 337 10796 86.11%
2034 253 11049 88.13%
2035 198 11247 89.71%
2036 122 11369 90.68%
2037 84 11453 91.35%
2038 62 11515 91.85%
2039 37 11552 92.14%
2040 14 11566 92.25%
2041 9 11575 92.33%
20420

 

[Captain X]

I put this together from numbers that were posted on the individual airlines combining CAL and UAL. Don't quote me on them, but should be relatively accurate. Sorry for the layout, I had trouble with the formatting.

If you used the numbers from post #51 I think you may have shifted a column or something because I came up with different numbers than you did.

For example in 2013 he posted CAL 183 + UAL 235 = 418 combined.

For 2013 you show 469.

I see you ran your numbers out to 2041 so maybe you didn't use the numbers three posts above?

Can you guys cite your sources so we can see what is accurate? Thanks.

 

[skywdriver]

If you used the numbers from post #51 I think you may have shifted a column or something because I came up with different numbers than you did.

For example in 2013 he posted CAL 183 + UAL 235 = 418 combined.

For 2013 you show 469.

I see you ran your numbers out to 2041 so maybe you didn't use the numbers three posts above?

Can you guys cite your sources so we can see what is accurate? Thanks.

My sources were individual listings of retirements per year by airline that I found on here quite a while back, and it was pretty old - before age 65 changed - so I just moved everything forward. I am sure the numbers have changed - however as a whole is should give a pretty good indication of what things will look like in a couple of years - assuming we stand strong on scope of course!

 

[lemtjones]

As far as I know, this is the most recent compilation, latest UAL seniority list and CAL seniority list prior to Oct 1:



UAL CAL TOTAL

2013 216 183 399
2014 221 198 419 818
2015 196 186 382 1200
2016 166 205 371 1571
2017 221 217 438 2009
2018 233 180 413 2422
2019 230 194 424 2846
2020 258 169 427 3273
2021 321 188 509 3782
2022 290 180 470 4252
2023 365 187 552 4804
2024 337 154 491 5295
2025 443 157 600 5895
2026 485 167 652 6547
2027 465 167 632 7179
2028 528 208 736 7915
2029 521 154 675 8590
2030 482 171 653 9243
2031 499 150 649 9892
2032 333 138 471 10363
2033 239 163 402 10765
2034 170 173 343 11108
2035 142 190 332 11440

 

[Mud Eagle]

when guys from the express carriers are on the jumpseat etc. and asking about future hiring I always bring up AA. I think in 5 years the place to be will be AA. They will be retiring in big #'s and most likely growing at the same time to compete with DAL and UAL without having to go through a merger like the other 2.

I recently had the opportunity to display a T-38 at OSH, right on AeroShell Square where all the big pedestrian traffic is.

Standing in front of a jet in a flight suit allows you to talk to all sorts of people, including tons of airline pilots. I conducted a straw poll of all the airline pilots I talked to during the week, asking the simple question, "would you recommend I apply at your airline?".

The results were very telling -- there was not one single AA pilot who recommended I apply to AA. In fact, their reaction to the question was particularly negative, and always punctuated by a follow-on diatribe about what kind of a company it is and how they treat their people. There were no other airlines which had this uniform dislike from their employees like this.

 

[IAHERJ]

I recently had the opportunity to display a T-38 at OSH, right on AeroShell Square where all the big pedestrian traffic is.

Standing in front of a jet in a flight suit allows you to talk to all sorts of people, including tons of airline pilots. I conducted a straw poll of all the airline pilots I talked to during the week, asking the simple question, "would you recommend I apply at your airline?".

The results were very telling -- there was not one single AA pilot who recommended I apply to AA. In fact, their reaction to the question was particularly negative, and always punctuated by a follow-on diatribe about what kind of a company it is and how they treat their people. There were no other airlines which had this uniform dislike from their employees like this.

I understand that however this attitude you ran into will change dramatically in 5 years when they are hiring 100 pilots a month. 10 years ago the attitude was different than it is today. With bases on the East Coast, West Coast, and points in between, AA will be a great option when the retirements start and the floodgates open. You have to understand that they have been through a heck of a time with the merger with TWA right before September 11, 2001 and everything that has happened since. 3 years worth of contract talks that are not producing the results the pilots would like haven't helped either. The facts, however speak for themselves. American retained their pension plans plus almost all of their pre 9/11 work rules. Stagnation always wears on a pilot group and causes the attitudes you ran into at the airshow. Mark my words, in 5 years, many will be applying to AA and will be thrilled to get picked up by them.

 

[California]

Airtran retirements please

SWA too if ya got them

 

[IAHERJ]

Sounds like things at United are looking up. Hope you get all your furloughees back soon. How many are on the street today?

Gup

Just based on retirements we should have them back in 3 years. More likely they will all be back by the end of 2012. If we drastically change staffing etc. with the new contract we might need them back next year. Should we win big in the scope war to come, we will be hiring in 2012. But who really knows.