SWA and FedEx are two very different companies...night and day if you'll pardon the pun. That aside, I have watched the events at your company closely as much of the language from our flight management, and later air operations division seem to sound a lot like what you guys are facing. In fact, I regulary email company emails and FCIFs to a few SWA pilots I know so they can see how another company is handling similar issues. The difference is we started getting the comm about one year ahead of when you guys did. When Gary Kelly said the "f" word, as in "we typically don't F at SWA..." it sounded eeriely similar to a statement by our director of flight operations in Feb 08. UPS went much more aggressively towards the F word with the retirement of the DC-8 fleet, but the path taken by SWA and FedEx seem similar...as do the numbers....300-600 pilots fat. Granted, you have 6000 pilots and we have a little more than 4500, but the manning issues are similar at the moment.
As someone who knows a lot of SWA pilots personally, I don't like the current situation even though I'm not directly effected. I also know Tanker Clown can be pretty obnoxious, but I have also heard second hand that some in management have echoed the 300 number. I'm not here to defend his poking some of you in the eye, but I think this time he's probably telling you the truth.
Does having extra pilots compared to traditional numbers mean furloughs are coming? Thankfully, at both our companies we have run lean of peak, and that provided some elasticity when things slowed down or picked up. Both SWA and FedEx management seem loathe to pull the trigger (for now) on furloughs, so for that I am grateful. What I do find interesting, however, is that the latest SWA TA creates a situation (already outlined) where there will be less trip trading available in the future, and thus will probably limit some of future productivity gains SWA's pilots are so famous for (the "tournament level players" I believe is the term I hear frequently). So...I don't THINK any of us will be on the street. However, to ignore the POSSIBLITY this paradigm has really shifted and that somehow we are immune to such tragedy is equally irresponsible. I'm trying to be a good Boy Scout and "be prepared", but hoping that such preparation is not required.
Advice is worth what you pay for it, but here's what we've been doing in our house as we've tried to weather this storm. First...looked at cutting expenses and although not eating ketchup sandwiches I'm also not flying the Navion nearly as much as I'd like and those two jetskis that got parted out or sold haven't been replaced. My wife, who was already doing pretty well doing some contract work, decided to take a "traditional" job again and thus has access to a full plan of health care benefits. She elected not to take them, as my plan is better for now, but we now have a back-up in case of economic catastrophe. I've dipped into my make-up bank and flown extra when I could...but tried to save verses spend the money. If guys ever hit the street I don't see how I could or would fly extra, but for now I work when I can. Finally, even though I retired from the ANG I'm trying to get back in part time to continue to serve (which I enjoyed) and also to have the additional safety net.
Fact is, we are all facing tough times, but unless this is the apocalypse these issues are temporary. (If it IS the apocalypse, then I guess it doesn't matter anyway. I'll see you in tent city) However, five or six pilots have unfortunately died at FedEx this year, and about 45 have retired. Its not the rush for the exits of years past, but people still leave. Age 60 changed things, but we are 18 months into it, with 2012 on the horizon. Pilots will retire, die, or medical out. I suspect that the rate of that happening for pilots between 60-65 will be higher than past norms. If you can batten down your financial hatches, hang tough, and (this is the hard part) not kill each other in the meantime, this too shall pass and there will be more growth and hiring eventually. Until then, I suggest neither hiding your head in the sand and ignoring that things are "different" nor tearing up the lottery ticket that is flying for a solid major (like SWA or FDX) and giving up. You just need to face the short term challenges and find a way to survive a spell. I remind myself frequently that I survived the Gulf War, the loss of a parent, the economic turmoil of 2001 and the horrible 9/11 fallout...so I'm pretty sure we'll get though this too. But I interviewed enough guys who flew at TWA, Pan Am, US Air, UAL, and other places to know that we all need to recognize none of us is immune from a changing industry.
