Southwest/ATA Plan WOW....

[Ty Webb]

It look like we have a winner as the forcasted deal, over a time period, is worth over TRIPLE what the AAI deal is worth and it keeps ATA a viable entity, only takes 6 gates and protects the ATSB and Unsecred creditors the best way possible...by keeping the Aircraft flying!

Uh, that would be one way to look at it, but through a highly subjective prism. I think this is just more "jockeying for position" and in the end, the gates will be divvied up.

Just hope that ATA ends up with as good a deal as either offer. If Airtran only gets a handful of gates, we won't need to buy them, wet-lease or codeshare, which would be good for AirTran, but bad for ATA.

It seems to me like if this deal goes through (doubtful) SWA keeps AirTran out of the picture, and with those expensive leases, high fuel prices without hedging, the money will only be a short-term fix. I say "doubtful" because not only would this have to pass muster with the bankruptcy court, but also with with the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) and it reeks of antitrust (monopoly) concerns to me.

Also, AirTran's offer was not only for $90 mil but also provided twice the annual revenue for ATA ($100 mil/ a year), that SWA's deal offered, yet you keep saying that SWA's offer is for more money. How about showing us where those numbers are coming from, because it sure looks like wishful thinking on your part.

 

[ATA For Now!]

How about showing us where those numbers are coming from, because it sure looks like wishful thinking on your part.

Ty,

Unfortunately, I can't get into the details of the plan as I do have inside information. Let's just say that the potential revenue from this deal far exceeds any generated by a "smaller, leaner ATA" with a code share with AAI. I can tell you that the anti trust issues you brought up have already been setteled and it is NOT a problem. WN REALLY did their homework on this. The lease prices as well as other debt has been addressed and fuel is coming down. The current price per gallon for us has dropped on average 36 cents since last month. I know it doesn't sound like much but each penny costs ATA $3 mil/yr.

WN is looking to expand their market share. ATA does some things well, (besides lose money) and WN does things well. A combination of forces would make it possible for someone in Brownsville TX to buy a ticket to Maui and eventually to Europe. A seemless intergation of 2 different companies that will offer worldwide authority to the traveling public.

I too was a little puzzled by this offer initally but when one looks at the potential, it makes sense.

WN has put together a plan that ensures the creditors and ATSB get their money. That is the most important thing to te BK court. A by-product of this plan is the future of ATA employees looks better than it would with the AAI deal. Obviosly, we wont know until Thursday but it looks to me like the WN deal is the one. If AAI comes up with alot more cash or a new deal, they may take it. Guess we will have to wait and see!

And as far as wishful thinking, guess you got me there. I wish that whatever deal happens, it protects the jobs of the people I represent.

 

[Ty Webb]

You raise some interesting points. Whatever happens, best of luck to you guys.

 

[ATA For Now!]

Thanks Ty...guess we'll all just have to wait and see!

 

[75M]

OK ATA, reality check time.

This was a defensive move by WN, period. Also, don't ever believe a third party when they say they are going to grow you. They won't. SWA pilots, flight attaendants and gate agents will crap their pants when that starts to happen. Then they're gonna do everything they can to make sure you don't make it and then they will really be in the driver's seat at MDW. Trust me, that is all they want. All you have to do is look at history to see how it will play out. SWA will get the gates and over time ATA will get be treated more and more as a step-child until one day it is dismantled by the "board Members" that WN plants on your board.

The best way out would have been for the FL deal to go through and keep your airline independent with the possibility of future growth, profitibility and recalls.

I'll bet my last dollar that this WN deal will not be good for TZ in the long run.

 

[FarginDooshbahg]

This was a defensive move by WN, period. Also, don't ever believe a third party when they say they are going to grow you. They won't. SWA pilots, flight attaendants and gate agents will crap their pants when that starts to happen. Then they're gonna do everything they can to make sure you don't make it and then they will really be in the driver's seat at MDW. Trust me, that is all they want. All you have to do is look at history to see how it will play out. SWA will get the gates and over time ATA will get be treated more and more as a step-child until one day it is dismantled by the "board Members" that WN plants on your board.

This appears to be one of the only prognostications that isn't colored by some rosy shaded glasses or the haze of wishful thinking.

 

[rudderdog]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but although the pay is higher at luv, staffing is much different. ATA has almost 15 pilots per aircraft, Southwest has 10 or 11. Relief pilots and 3 crew L-10s are a large part of this. Bagging the L-10s for 76's and working a bit more efficiently could decrease labor costs. Also, doesn't UPS have the same payscale for all aircraft types? Hmmmm.

 

[Dizel8]

"The best way out would have been for the FL deal to go through and keep your airline independent with the possibility of future growth, profitibility and recalls".

But FL has not offered growth at ATA from what I have seen. The offer seems to be, to keep ATA around untill such time, FL has the man power and a/c's, so tat they can shut down ATA.

Not privvy to the insiders portion of SWAs offer, but from the outside it looks like it has more potential. Now true, as someone else pointed out and I hinted to, is how will the employees at SWA react and what is the long term vision wrt. SWA and ATA. This may simply be a ploy from SWA to offer what appears to be the best deal for ATA, but in the end SWA obviously looks out for what is best for them. SWA has said, that they feel the -800 is too large for them and have made no mentions of 75s or L10s.

I feel ATA is a great airline with lots of potential, with a good management team and support from who used to be the competetion, it may very well end up being a very strong airline indeed.

 

[mach zero]

OK ATA, reality check time.

This was a defensive move by WN, period. Also, don't ever believe a third party when they say they are going to grow you. They won't. SWA pilots, flight attaendants and gate agents will crap their pants when that starts to happen. Then they're gonna do everything they can to make sure you don't make it and then they will really be in the driver's seat at MDW. Trust me, that is all they want. All you have to do is look at history to see how it will play out. SWA will get the gates and over time ATA will get be treated more and more as a step-child until one day it is dismantled by the "board Members" that WN plants on your board.

The best way out would have been for the FL deal to go through and keep your airline independent with the possibility of future growth, profitibility and recalls.

I'll bet my last dollar that this WN deal will not be good for TZ in the long run.

I think ATA stands a much better chance of being gutted by FL than SWA if FL wins. You can't blame the ATA folks for wanting the WN deal after the statements made on this board and the apathetic resume taker they sent to MDW on Monday.

 

[ATA For Now!]

Ok, 75m, you win.....all ATA people are screwed. What was I thinking! Guess you woke me up from my daydream....ahhhh...to think we may have still had jobs.

Oh, well. Guess it's time to move to Miami and rent lounge chairs on the beach!

Have fun with the debate boys....I'm OUT!