So..the pilot shortage is coming?

[JokerFuel]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

 

[Redtailer]

Just curious, what is your source that gives you the impression Delta will be furloughing?

 

[General Lee]

Heard nothing about Delta furloughing. Nope. Like Redtailer asks, where are you coming up with this stuff?


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Question4U]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

They both have alot of retirements coming up. I can't see that happening.

 

[Lear70]

I'm not in the majors, but I've heard that US Air and Delta are going to furlough. That just sucks!!! My curiosity is that next year I thought the airlines were gonna take anyone with a pulse and an ATP. So...is the great pilot deficit once again a farce? I've got no card in the game..just curious!

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

 

[Whine Lover]

Well said Lear....and, while we are at it let's add this tidbit of reality:

THERE
NEVER
HAS
BEEN
NOR,
WILL
THERE
EVER
BE
A
"BIG ANNOUNCEMENT"
AT
ANY
AIRLINE


EVER.






YKW

 

[fam62c]

Delta is roughly 3% overstaffed, but retirements in the next 2 years should take care of that.

Now, listen very carefully.

THERE
WILL
NEVER
BE
A
PILOT
SHORTAGE
AT
THE
MAJOR
AIRLINE
LEVEL



EVER.


There will likely be a shortage at the Regional level in 5-7 years, but who wants those jobs for a career? Once you take out the 50-seat jet market as those leases expire over the next 5-7 years, with those pilots going to the Majors as the Majors start retiring large numbers of pilots, you have even-numbers for a while... Fewer needed at the regional level but people moving on to Major jobs so it mostly equals out.

Then when the Regionals are done shrinking their 50-seat fleet, as long as unions stop giving up Scope, the Majors will still be steadily retiring folks from age 65, and will take the experienced Regional Captains.

There will always be enough of those to feed the Majors.

The Regionals will then have trouble staffing the right seat at the crap wages they pay, and you'll see the RAA screaming bloody murder (they already are) that with the new regs in place, they can't staff.

But you'll never see it at the Major level. You just won't. Anything else is a Kit Darby pipe dream...

I agree but it depends on how you define shortage. Assuming the retirement age doesn't get pushed beyond age 65 (I think that it will at some point which changes everything) at some point you will see the large carriers starting to have to compete for the most qualified applicants and the days of candidates having multiple job offers will return in a few years. I don't think we will see much action in 2013 and maybe even 2014 because there are guys on the street that need to be absorbed but after that things should start to pick up.

If you define a pilot shortage as the top level employers (best pay, benefits and career progression) running out of applicants that meet their minimum requirements that is possible but unlikely anytime soon. The shortage will hit the regionals, charter companies, flight schools, bad part 91 operators/fractionals and "stepping stone" jet carriers first. The top of the food chain will be fine I think. It's easy to be pessimistic because of all the bad stuff we've seen recently in this industry but hiring can go from bad to good (or good to bad as we've seen) very quickly. The age 65 retirement numbers are convincing assuming that doesn't change and there is no economic meltdown that shrinks the industry. I think that new, young pilots just getting their qualifications now will have a much better and faster career path than those of us who starter 20 years ago and hit the gulf wars, 9-11, age 65, great recession and pretty much every other industry setback. BTW, one thing I've learned from life is never say never

 

[fam62c]

Well said Lear....and, while we are at it let's add this tidbit of reality:

THERE
NEVER
HAS
BEEN
NOR,
WILL
THERE
EVER
BE
A
"BIG ANNOUNCEMENT"
AT
ANY
AIRLINE


EVER.






YKW

But the rumor of such announcement will be ever-present

 

[HelloNewman]

There will not be a shortage anywhere. Plenty of people want to work at the majors and honestly with a glut of 50 seaters out there regionals are next to see consolidation. If there are not enough applicants at the regional level then more 50 seaters will be retired and simply not be replaced. Regionals will shrink and be full of senior lifers that keep hanging on to the titanic that is the contract business. Oh sure some companies will be left standing but my guess is comair is just the tip of the iceburg. Those people that live in places like springfield, il will simply have to drive to chicago if they want to fly.

 

[JECKEL]

US Airways is interviewing right now.
They hired 50 in the Spring, 40 this Summer and are planning to hire 70 this Fall.
Next year US Airways has plans to hire 300 pilots.