Retirement Numbers

[tranceport]

I don't have 'hard numbers' but I 'heard' from a legacy carrier mgmt. type that the medical 'early retirements' hovered closer to the 10% range. Of course all these numbers change year by year.

Maybe it was closer to your 20-30% number with the 'older' generation pilots that knew how to party. Many of those former smokers and over imbibers are moving on.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Eureka!! I found the SWAPA retirement calculator.


Retirements starting in '05:

-- averages 120/year for 5 years
-- averages 130/year the next 5 years

I now see where everyone gets the 600-700 aircraft and 7000-7700 pilot info.

The assumption is options get converted to firm orders. Traditionally conservative at SWA. I guess I'll just have to wait until the quarterly announcements to get hard info.

 

[C77MD80]

3 more years?

the repeal of the age 60 rule is gaining more support on Capitol Hill without ALPA support.



So for those pilots and future pilots that are getting the calculator out to figure the upgrade or when hiring will start and all furloughs will be called blah.. blah ...blah... you might have to add 3 more years to your total.

Hopefully this wont hijack the thread to an Age 60 debate, I personally want to retire by age 55.

That would make a mandatory retirement age of 63? That's age discrimination for anyone over 63! That's hogwash! Unfair! Discrimination! If you're going to change the law change it to a retiring at a lapse of standards (physical or mental), performance based (ie incapable of performing duties). I don't see moving a retirement to 63 any less discriminating than that of 60, other than it's 3 years time. You're still discriminating on age. ALPA is going to have to quit giving away at negotiating time so pilot's can save, as well as, pilot's are going to have to adjust their savings.

 

[Jack Schitt]

Wow, retirement numbers go up while payscales go down. Nice way for management to create the new "D" scale. They couldn't have planned this any better. Good luck changing the age 60 rule.

 

[Yahtzee]

Another what if:

LUV hits $20 and a few Capts call in rich with all those options. Is this possible? Yes...Probable? Only the Capts can tell us...SWADude? Any guesses here?

If LUV climbs above $20 it might just offset any repeal of the Age 60...so we're back where we started.

night y'all

Yahtz

 

[SWAdude]

Another what if:

LUV hits $20 and a few Capts call in rich with all those options. Is this possible? Yes...Probable? Only the Capts can tell us...SWADude? Any guesses here?

In my 10 years here I have heard a couple guys say if the the stock hit 20 bucks a share they would be out of here. That was a few stock splits ago and they are both still here.

I am only aware of a few pilots that retired early and I don't think they did because the stock hit a certain price. Although one guy put in his retirement papers and then 9/11 happened. As we know all the stocks went into the tank and he ended up delaying his retirement for a couple of years.

There are some here that every dollar makes a huge difference on what their retirement would be but I think most still see the couple hundred grand a year working 12 days a month allot to give up.

Of course, I hope I'm wrong.

SWAdude

 

[Cactus73]

Never mind....I'll keep my comments to myself.

 

[EMBpilot]

It was mentioned here before that CAL will retire some crazy number of pilots within next 5 years.

 

[General Lee]

In the last 12 months, counting Jan 1st of this year, we have had over 980 pilots retire, and over 750 of them were "early"---ages ranged from 50-59. Not bad.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[mittro]

Alaska's retirement #s:


2005=42
2006=64
2007=76
2008=53
2009=46
2010=51
2011-54
2012=49
2013=48
2014=49
2015=55

Total over the next 10 years puts it at 587 with just about 1500 on the property now.

 

[jacko123]

will someone please post the AWA #'s.

 

[SuperFLUF]

CAL retirements

CAL #'s as of last summer.

2005 (FEB-DEC): 144
2006: 245
2007: 313
2008: 241
2009: 215
2010: 209
2011: 218
2012: 218
2013: 191
2014: 202
2015: 171
2016: 189
2017: 180
2018: 179
2019: 151
2020: 146
2021: 151
2022: 150
2023: 178
2024: 125
2025: 135
2026: 103
2027: 82
2028: 88
2029: 85
2030: 58
2031: 29
2032: 19
2033: 8

There's been some medical early outs since these numbers were valid and recently, with the concession talks (pension freeze, retiree medical increase, bankruptcy), they're lining up to go early but the total numbers are the same regardless.
The first five years might change around a bit and new hires older than 28 will add to the numbers in the out years.
I'm guessing the retirement age will be 65 before too long which obviously changes all of this around and will make it even harder for me to go at 55 like I want. Who knows?
One thing about the over 60 deal. If it happens it probably won't be considered an early retirement to go at 60 so many will still go then or earlier.
For me, retirement is my ultimate goal to work toward. Not some horrible end of the good life. The sooner the better.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

One thing about the over 60 deal. If it happens it probably won't be considered an early retirement to go at 60 so many will still go then or earlier.

Are you sure about that? That is the other edge to the over 60 sword. I would be surprised if employers don't work as hard as they can to keep you around after 60. That is why ALPA opposes over 60.

 

[Vortilon]

It does not appear to me that ALPA opposes age 60 any more. Take a look at the last "information campaign" in Airline Pilot. They are laying the groundwork to change their own minds, and yours on the subject.

Its an unfortunate diversion from fixing the current pension fiasco. (not that I have any answers...I'm just a worker bee)

 

[TAZ MAN]

Doew anyone have NWA retirement numbers?

 

[Falconjet]

At the risk of being banned to the CARGO boards, here are the retirement numbers (based on age 60 only) for FedEx off the website, updated as of Nov 03:

2005 125

2006 159

2007 168

2008 159

2009 136

2010 164

2011 158

2012 188

2013 183

2014 154

2015 176

2016 204

2017 205

2018 209

2019 206

2020 190

That is a total of 2784 over the next 16 years.

FJ

 

[SuperFLUF]

Are you sure about that? That is the other edge to the over 60 sword. I would be surprised if employers don't work as hard as they can to keep you around after 60. That is why ALPA opposes over 60.

If I remember correctly the latest article in the ALPA age 60 info push stated that in the countries where pilots can fly past 60, its not an early out to go at 60. That way it does not excessively penalize those who want to go at 60 and have planned to do so for their entire career. It will still hurt some unfairly in that if you do go at 60 you have lost some time left seat $$ due to the delayed upgrade.

 

[N1kawotg]

"It will still hurt some unfairly in that if you do go at 60 you have lost some time left seat $$ due to the delayed upgrade."

What upgrade time is lost due to furloughs? Would those extra years(if wanted) of pay make up for the loss of wages or lack of wages now? You would be at a higher payscale when senior.

 

[SuperFLUF]

........What upgrade time is lost due to furloughs? ........ You would be at a higher payscale when senior........

Not due to furloughs, due to CA's staying till 65 instead of 60. If you retire at 60 regardless, then you have lost 5 years of CA pay that the current CA's didn't because everyone ahead of them went out at 60. Its an unfair windfall to those who benefit most.

Furloughs effect most everyone at the airline. Some more than others but there are still the effects of downgrades and reduced seniority. Its the business cycle and it happens to most everyone at least once or twice during a career. Its outside of the pilot's control.

Senior only pays more to a point. Most, if not all, airline payscales top out at 12-15 years after that there are no more longevity raises. Just whatever is in the contract for cost of living increases.

 

[JimBo480]

NWA numbers taken off of their seniority calculator. Note, I'm told you can up these numbers by more than 50% to factor in medicals. Due to a July birthday these numbers are from July to July each year vs January to January.

2005 229
2006 133
2007 214
2008 233
2009 206
2010 231
2011 230
2012 254
2013 253
2014 303
2015 313
2016 340
2017 349

They have recalled to around 5618 with about 480 more left to recall. As you can see they'll be turning over a large percentage of the list in the next 10 years.

Jim