Retirement Numbers

[jacko123]

will someone please post the AWA #'s.

 

[SuperFLUF]

CAL retirements

CAL #'s as of last summer.

2005 (FEB-DEC): 144
2006: 245
2007: 313
2008: 241
2009: 215
2010: 209
2011: 218
2012: 218
2013: 191
2014: 202
2015: 171
2016: 189
2017: 180
2018: 179
2019: 151
2020: 146
2021: 151
2022: 150
2023: 178
2024: 125
2025: 135
2026: 103
2027: 82
2028: 88
2029: 85
2030: 58
2031: 29
2032: 19
2033: 8

There's been some medical early outs since these numbers were valid and recently, with the concession talks (pension freeze, retiree medical increase, bankruptcy), they're lining up to go early but the total numbers are the same regardless.
The first five years might change around a bit and new hires older than 28 will add to the numbers in the out years.
I'm guessing the retirement age will be 65 before too long which obviously changes all of this around and will make it even harder for me to go at 55 like I want. Who knows?
One thing about the over 60 deal. If it happens it probably won't be considered an early retirement to go at 60 so many will still go then or earlier.
For me, retirement is my ultimate goal to work toward. Not some horrible end of the good life. The sooner the better.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

One thing about the over 60 deal. If it happens it probably won't be considered an early retirement to go at 60 so many will still go then or earlier.

Are you sure about that? That is the other edge to the over 60 sword. I would be surprised if employers don't work as hard as they can to keep you around after 60. That is why ALPA opposes over 60.

 

[Vortilon]

It does not appear to me that ALPA opposes age 60 any more. Take a look at the last "information campaign" in Airline Pilot. They are laying the groundwork to change their own minds, and yours on the subject.

Its an unfortunate diversion from fixing the current pension fiasco. (not that I have any answers...I'm just a worker bee)

 

[TAZ MAN]

Doew anyone have NWA retirement numbers?

 

[Falconjet]

At the risk of being banned to the CARGO boards, here are the retirement numbers (based on age 60 only) for FedEx off the website, updated as of Nov 03:

2005 125

2006 159

2007 168

2008 159

2009 136

2010 164

2011 158

2012 188

2013 183

2014 154

2015 176

2016 204

2017 205

2018 209

2019 206

2020 190

That is a total of 2784 over the next 16 years.

FJ

 

[SuperFLUF]

Are you sure about that? That is the other edge to the over 60 sword. I would be surprised if employers don't work as hard as they can to keep you around after 60. That is why ALPA opposes over 60.

If I remember correctly the latest article in the ALPA age 60 info push stated that in the countries where pilots can fly past 60, its not an early out to go at 60. That way it does not excessively penalize those who want to go at 60 and have planned to do so for their entire career. It will still hurt some unfairly in that if you do go at 60 you have lost some time left seat $$ due to the delayed upgrade.

 

[N1kawotg]

"It will still hurt some unfairly in that if you do go at 60 you have lost some time left seat $$ due to the delayed upgrade."

What upgrade time is lost due to furloughs? Would those extra years(if wanted) of pay make up for the loss of wages or lack of wages now? You would be at a higher payscale when senior.

 

[SuperFLUF]

........What upgrade time is lost due to furloughs? ........ You would be at a higher payscale when senior........

Not due to furloughs, due to CA's staying till 65 instead of 60. If you retire at 60 regardless, then you have lost 5 years of CA pay that the current CA's didn't because everyone ahead of them went out at 60. Its an unfair windfall to those who benefit most.

Furloughs effect most everyone at the airline. Some more than others but there are still the effects of downgrades and reduced seniority. Its the business cycle and it happens to most everyone at least once or twice during a career. Its outside of the pilot's control.

Senior only pays more to a point. Most, if not all, airline payscales top out at 12-15 years after that there are no more longevity raises. Just whatever is in the contract for cost of living increases.

 

[JimBo480]

NWA numbers taken off of their seniority calculator. Note, I'm told you can up these numbers by more than 50% to factor in medicals. Due to a July birthday these numbers are from July to July each year vs January to January.

2005 229
2006 133
2007 214
2008 233
2009 206
2010 231
2011 230
2012 254
2013 253
2014 303
2015 313
2016 340
2017 349

They have recalled to around 5618 with about 480 more left to recall. As you can see they'll be turning over a large percentage of the list in the next 10 years.

Jim

 

[SWAdude]

There are still quite a few numbers at NWA that will retire in the next few years. Thats good.

 

[FlyChicaga]

Thanks for the responses. This thread turned out better than I thought it would.

 

[JetMonkey]

will someone please post the AWA #'s.

I'm trying to find out myself now that I'm here. The union website doesn't post other than the current year. 2005's number is 36 retirements, if anyone knows beyond this year please post.

 

[tranceport]

The age 60 rule change is not 'if' but when. The last time it went up for a vote in the Senate, I think the bill it was attached to lost by 3 votes. This spring, it is supposedly attached to two bills and with or without ALPA, it will pass. Yes, ALPA's official stance is no longer opposition, but 'studying' it.

-----------

I'm the type of person that can't stand listening to a ringing phone so I'll post the some unofficial AWA numbers. As far as this retirement number thread goes, it's good information but a better way to look at this is what these numbers are as a percentage of pilots on the property. These numbers are moving targets as total pilot population changes slightly.

AWA
2004-52
2005-42
2006-39
2007-53
2008-55
2009-55
2010-51
2011-38
2012-57
2013-46
2014-58
2015-51

 

[tranceport]

Since I'm bored and my soap opera is over (ah, furloughed life is great), I've gotten to thinking about this retirement thing. There's a silver lining to every cloud and I'd say without a doubt, given all the turmoil and losses in our industry, this may be one of the few brights spots. The time it takes airlines to get back on their feet may take longer than expected but in the interim, time marches on and retirements offer us some hope of someday being recalled or in the right seat of our 'dream' job. (I know, it's not what it used to be but we can dream, right?)

In the future, all the majors, including UPS and Fedex, will have HALF of their pilots retire (based on age 60) anywhere from 2013 (CAL) to 2019. The majority of the majors reach the 50% point at 2015 and three or four by 2017/2018.

This is definitely a 'glass half empty or half full' scenario. You can look at this either way. Even with a bump up in the age, it's something to positive about (for those of us in the under 50-something crowd).

Good luck to us all and happy flying.

Love,
tranceport

 

[dbrownie]

NWA numbers taken off of their seniority calculator. Note, I'm told you can up these numbers by more than 50% to factor in medicals. Due to a July birthday these numbers are from July to July each year vs January to January.

2005 229
2006 133
2007 214
2008 233
2009 206
2010 231
2011 230
2012 254
2013 253
2014 303
2015 313
2016 340
2017 349

They have recalled to around 5618 with about 480 more left to recall. As you can see they'll be turning over a large percentage of the list in the next 10 years.

Jim

Jim ,
One thing about NWA is that people can ROPE on the DC-10
and the 747 and quite a few are.

Some to get their years for medical benifits.
Dave B

 

[JimBo480]

One thing about NWA is that people can ROPE on the DC-10
and the 747 and quite a few are.

Some to get their years for medical benifits.
Dave B

Dave, just before 9/11 I was in ANC on the 747F and met a couple. Since I was furloughed I've read that the number of ROPE's has climbed to around 100. I hope the option to ROPE on the 747F is still around when I hit 60....or 63.

Jim, hoping for a recall letter within a month

 

[dbrownie]

Dave, just before 9/11 I was in ANC on the 747F and met a couple. Since I was furloughed I've read that the number of ROPE's has climbed to around 100. I hope the option to ROPE on the 747F is still around when I hit 60....or 63.

Jim, hoping for a recall letter within a month

I bet NWA will be the last major that any one can rope on. The last ROPE
for NWA has not even been born yet!!
Dave B

 

[holdon]

Heard one time that at my former airline they planned on 1 early out(medical, disgruntled, mental, whatever) for every 2 scheduled. Those add up pretty quick.

 

[Bandit21]

UAL 2133 furloughed


Retirements

2005- 240
2006- 282
2007- 285
2008- 248
2009- 236
2010- 207
2011- 176
2012- 241
2013- 250
2014- 248
2015- 281

 

[Reebo]

anyone know USAIR numbers?

 

[JetMonkey]

anyone know USAIR numbers?

Well Reebo, nobody answered you a couple months ago and now, I'm starting to wonder the same thing with this Merger crap hanging out there so, I hope you don't mine me bringing back to life your (now our) question. Muchas Grass!

Any USAIR guys or gals care to share?

 

[Reebo]

Well Reebo, nobody answered you a couple months ago and now, I'm starting to wonder the same thing with this Merger crap hanging out there so, I hope you don't mine me bringing back to life your (now our) question. Muchas Grass!

Any USAIR guys or gals care to share?

its all good im very interested too! i just got a golden referal and im anxiously waiting for a call from cactus

 

[Crzipilot]

Not sure how accurate these numbers are....but they should be close, just to give an idea....retirements at US

2005 159
2006 228
2007 290
2008 206
2009 248
2010 199
2011 272
2012 277
2013 320
2014 305
2015 317
2016 304
2017 255
2018 277
2019 209
2020 230
2021 171
2022 163
2023 129
2024 114
2025 91
2026 86
2027 86
2028 98
2029 58
2030 49
2032 50

 

[NuGuy]

Jim ,
One thing about NWA is that people can ROPE on the DC-10
and the 747 and quite a few are.

Some to get their years for medical benifits.
Dave B

Hi DB,

You are right. The retirement numbers at NWA get skewed somewhat by the BIG jump in ROPES. Before 9/11, most of us around the shop would have said "huh?" when asked about ropes.

Now we have the situation where you CAN'T hold ANY FE spot if you're not 60+, simply because of the sheer number of ropes comming back. I was told that in a few months we will have ropes displacing ropes off the back seat of equipment.

Everyone has their own reasons, but my bet is it's either for the insurance (fair enough) or guys hedging their bets with the age 60 thing (they get to go back to the left seat).

Nu

 

[Paul R. Smith]

Can you say recalls!!!

UAL 2133 furloughed


Retirements

2005- 240
2006- 282
2007- 285
2008- 248
2009- 236
2010- 207
2011- 176
2012- 241
2013- 250
2014- 248
2015- 281

that means assuming no growth and no shrinkage...UAL will have recalled all furloughed pilots by 2013...or 2018 if we go to this age 65 thing.Eureka!!!

Man that sucks!