Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET), SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW): A New Business Strategy

[redflyer65]

The MRJ will be flying for Delta. You can go ahead and ink it in.

The timeline is exactly what RA has planned. New contract for the DL pilots right as the MRJ shows up. DALPA will fold like a house of cards for around 20 cents more of per diem.

Watch and learn boys and girls.

 

[Erlanger]

Do the people in Japan realize this? Are they mad? I think I will wait until they actually cancel the order.... Until then, I can't wait to see them in SKW colors!


Bye Bye---General Lee

No the folks in Japan aren't mad. They got publicity that the worlds largest regional jet operator was going to buy their airplanes plus SkyWest put earnest money down that they get to keep if SkyWest backs out. But SkyWest won't lose the money cos they set strict guidelines that Mitsubishi probably won't be able to meet and/or SkyWest will sell their slot to someone else who may want these planes. What money SkyWest put down for the MRJs, they probably already got it back from the deal they struck for the E175s.

I actually think Jerry approached Mitsubishi and told them he has no intentions of buying their planes and convinced them that they could benefit from this pseudo deal.

 

[General Lee]

The MRJ will be flying for Delta. You can go ahead and ink it in.

The timeline is exactly what RA has planned. New contract for the DL pilots right as the MRJ shows up. DALPA will fold like a house of cards for around 20 cents more of per diem.

Watch and learn boys and girls.

Ummmmm wrong. There are limited numbers and types of RJs permitted, and the MRJs haven't even flown yet. What I did hear from a couple Corndog friends is that your group is a target, and some above have expressed interest in possibly serving smaller communities that can't make money with 737s, and that he may look at those MRJs, especially since the contract talks are coming up. Since he sided with the Corndog pilots with the SLI, and they don't want a pay cut, they may give in on feed. Those MRJs would look awesome at Love Field going to LBB and AMA, in mustard yellow and orange. Watch out Red, it very well could happen! Great rumor from my Corndog friends... Let's see if you will pick pay or feed....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

No the folks in Japan aren't mad. They got publicity that the worlds largest regional jet operator was going to buy their airplanes plus SkyWest put earnest money down that they get to keep if SkyWest backs out. But SkyWest won't lose the money cos they set strict guidelines that Mitsubishi probably won't be able to meet and/or SkyWest will sell their slot to someone else who may want these planes. What money SkyWest put down for the MRJs, they probably already got it back from the deal they struck for the E175s.

I actually think Jerry approached Mitsubishi and told them he has no intentions of buying their planes and convinced them that they could benefit from this pseudo deal.

Wow, what a tricky CEO! And he gets the Ernest money back too...... But.... He will demand it back if they don't hit specs, but the manufacturer doesn't care? And if SKW doesn't like the specs, someone else will? You must be making this up.....sounds NUTS! Is what you said even legal?


Bye Bye----General Lee

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Wow, what a tricky CEO! And he gets the Ernest money back too...... But.... He will demand it back if they don't hit specs, but the manufacturer doesn't care? And if SKW doesn't like the specs, someone else will? You must be making this up.....sounds NUTS! Is what you said even legal?


Bye Bye----General Lee

Classic,
Toss a nugget into the pond, watch the ripples. Genny you are truly a puppet, pull the strings watch the wooden headed fool, dance. Your understanding of finance and the legal system rivals the average Labrador Retriever's, every word that you type, that isn't copied and pasted shows your true emotional age. Truth be told, you are actually retarded!
"Is what you said even legal?" 3rd grade at best!
Classic!

 

[General Lee]

Classic,
Toss a nugget into the pond, watch the ripples. Genny you are truly a puppet, pull the strings watch the wooden headed fool, dance. Your understanding of finance and the legal system rivals the average Labrador Retriever's, every word that you type, that isn't copied and pasted shows your true emotional age. Truth be told, you are actually retarded!
Classic!

Did you and "Uncle" Steve enjoy your time together? How was the weather? Did you ride bikes? Sure you did.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Here ya go Genny,
Prediction,
Skywest will be flying the EMB175 and probably the 190 and 195 for Delta. There will also be a direct flow through from SKYW to DAL, no interview, just a bid based on seniority.
You wanna know why? Economics, plain and simple, it allows DAL the ability to keep their farm team pilots warm and hungry until they need them to staff the mainline.
Make no mistake DAL will have Skywest and every other regiional's pilots in their cockpits soon enough.
The reason I know you are not a pilot is because you take way too much enjoyment in others potential discomfort, you are juvenile mean, the kind of person so miserable in their own skin, that they can't enjoy anything except someone's potential misfortune.

 

[General Lee]

Here ya go Genny,
Prediction,
Skywest will be flying the EMB175 and probably the 190 and 195 for Delta. There will also be a direct flow through from SKYW to DAL, no interview, just a bid based on seniority.
You wanna know why? Economics, plain and simple, it allows DAL the ability to keep their farm team pilots warm and hungry until they need them to staff the mainline.
Make no mistake DAL will have Skywest and every other regiional's pilots in their cockpits soon enough.
The reason I know you are not a pilot is because you take way too much enjoyment in others potential discomfort, you are juvenile mean, the kind of person so miserable in their own skin, that they can't enjoy anything except someone's potential misfortune.

Juvenile mean? I am wishing you and "Uncle" Steve the best in your future together. Why is that mean?

There is no doubt there will be regional pilots from many regionals, including SKW, in all 3 legacy cockpits soon. All 3 will need about 15,000 newhires through the next decade. That doesn't mean scope will be eroded, especially since consolidation has helped airlines become MORE profitable, thanks to fewer choices on the Internet. Extra profits doesn't mean concessions, and the current pilot group at all 3 legacies that were furloughed after 9-11 just won't forget the outsourcing of their jobs. The older guys that didn't care are starting to retire, and that means tighter scope to get a YES vote. This last contract added 70 76 seaters, but guaranteed fewer 50 seaters, and those 76 seaters come only if the 717s do, at the same time. It recaptured flying, and nothing larger at the regionals.

Your E195 assertion could equally be CRJ-1000s, since you guys fly the CRJ series. Any CRK's out there? Nope. Just because you have one size plane, doesn't mean you get a larger version later.

So, hug it out with "Uncle" Steve and have a fantastic night.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[AntiJedi]

Disregarding the usual FI childish bickering, the case still stands that the MRJ will arrive in 2017, and that 2017 is a LONG ways away for the this industry. Anything can happen between now and then---up to, and including the formation of a new certificate to fly the MRJ and/or C-series free and clear of scope clauses.

 

[ASApuppy]

My understanding is that the MRJ's are fleet replacements for our older 700's. You have to realize that by the time these things show up, the oldest CRJ-700 will be 15 years old. Not growth aircraft. Expect them to be Delta paint.

 

[flyboyike]

The reason I know you are not a pilot is because you take way too much enjoyment in others potential discomfort, you are juvenile mean, the kind of person so miserable in their own skin, that they can't enjoy anything except someone's potential misfortune.

Actually, that describes about every pilot I know, myself included. Most of us take at least some enjoyment out of miserable failures of others, the more miserable, the better.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Actually, that describes about every pilot I know, myself included. Most of us take at least some enjoyment out of miserable failures of others, the more miserable, the better.

Wow,
I have been a pilot for 25 years and 121 for more than 15, with few exceptions, I have not met a 121 pilot who enjoyed another pilots misfortune/failures. I do not mistake interest for enjoyment, whereas Genny truly enjoys others misfortune. If what you say is true there is little hope for the future of the piloting community.
Sad

 

[777forever]

As said before, the analyst is clueless. Horrible article. Next

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[PBRstreetgang]

Juvenile mean? I am wishing you and "Uncle" Steve the best in your future together. Why is that mean?

There is no doubt there will be regional pilots from many regionals, including SKW, in all 3 legacy cockpits soon. All 3 will need about 15,000 newhires through the next decade. That doesn't mean scope will be eroded, especially since consolidation has helped airlines become MORE profitable, thanks to fewer choices on the Internet. Extra profits doesn't mean concessions, and the current pilot group at all 3 legacies that were furloughed after 9-11 just won't forget the outsourcing of their jobs. The older guys that didn't care are starting to retire, and that means tighter scope to get a YES vote. This last contract added 70 76 seaters, but guaranteed fewer 50 seaters, and those 76 seaters come only if the 717s do, at the same time. It recaptured flying, and nothing larger at the regionals.

Your E195 assertion could equally be CRJ-1000s, since you guys fly the CRJ series. Any CRK's out there? Nope. Just because you have one size plane, doesn't mean you get a larger version later.

So, hug it out with "Uncle" Steve and have a fantastic night.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Genny,
Your wishing comment is nothing more than a projection of your own homoerotic fantasies.

The scope issue is moot, based upon DAL pilots past history, there is the assumption that the past behavior will continue. DAL pilots gave scope relief in exchange for retirement of airframes that were rapidly approaching life limits on the fuselage. In essence the DAL pilots , achieved nothing, nada, big fat zero. The reality is that the DAL pilots signed on the line to keep other pilots on lower paying payscales, in order to reap a reward for themselves. So when you imply that the average DAL pilot cares for anything other than their immediate gains you are sadly mistaken.

As far as the CRJ vs EMB airframes, look at the last DAL contract, the pilots gave up larger airframes, plain and simple, they rolled over and took it.

And once again, your Uncle Steve is upstairs giving your mom what she really craves, while you sit playing with your computer. So lets keep your homoerotic fantasies on track.

 

[BushwickBill]

Wow,
I have been a pilot for 25 years and 121 for more than 15, with few exceptions, I have not met a 121 pilot who enjoyed another pilots misfortune/failures. I do not mistake interest for enjoyment, whereas Genny truly enjoys others misfortune. If what you say is true there is little hope for the future of the piloting community.
Sad

There is little hope for the "community". As evidenced by the rapid decline of the profession.

 

[pilotnbr1]

This was announced as refleeting... Not sure why everyone thinks these would be replacements for the Delta side of Skywest Inc (other than to goad the General).

There are 700s being operated on the United side, recently some larger RJs were announced as a swap on the USAir side, I would imagine Skywest Inc will get their hands on some larger AA RJs at some point as well. So many places these MRJs could go as of now- however as someone else said 2017 is way over the horizon in airline time...

If anything the Delta CPA will shrink as Delta wrings more cost savings from its partners and ASA can no longer maintain second lowest cost partner AND turn a profit.

As for the original post- I would not trust the writer of the article with my money. The writer is focused on narrow technical aspects of the stock's performance. The writer also makes several omissions in describing fleet structure. He/she is basing much of their opinion on fleet composition and does not make mention of many of the other aspects which should be considered when assessing the future of the stock/company. The author also attempts to make a connection between Skywest Inc load factor and profitability. The author should know that load factor is virtually irrelevant in a fee for departure model contract. Additionally Republic is somewhat of a hybrid airline with Frontier being in their fold. Reading the article I get the sense that it was written be an outsider trying to glean some information rather than an industry insider sharing some valuable information.

In my opinion the Skywest Inc team is very pragmatic in making fleet decisions as well as very forward looking relative to their competition. Skywest has demonstrated they will not pursue growth aircraft for growths sake- there has to be profit potential. They are very good at estimating where their costs need to be due to the large scope of their operations and resulting data set. Their strong financial liquidity, credit, and scope give them leverage negotiating with aircraft manufactures. Ultimately as a regional they will have to be able to offer an attractive product at the right price...

 

[russtgol]

This was announced as refleeting... Not sure why everyone thinks these would be replacements for the Delta side of Skywest Inc (other than to goad the General).

There are 700s being operated on the United side, recently some larger RJs were announced as a swap on the USAir side, I would imagine Skywest Inc will get their hands on some larger AA RJs at some point as well. So many places these MRJs could go as of now- however as someone else said 2017 is way over the horizon in airline time...

If anything the Delta CPA will shrink as Delta rings more cost savings from its partners and ASA can no longer maintain second lowest cost partner AND turn a profit.

As for the original post- I would not trust the writer of the article with my money. The writer is focused on narrow technical aspects of the stock's performance. The writer also makes several omissions in describing fleet structure. He/she is basing much of their opinion on fleet composition and does not make mention of many of the other aspects which should be considered when assessing the future of the stock/company...

In my opinion the Skywest Inc team is very pragmatic in making fleet decisions as well as very forward looking relative to their competition. Skywest has demonstrated they will not pursue growth aircraft for growths sake- there has to be profit potential. They are very good at estimating where their costs need to be due to the large scope of their operations and resulting data set. Their strong financial liquidity, credit, and scope give them leverage negotiating with aircraft manufactures. Ultimately as a regional they will have to be able to offer an attractive product at the right price...

They can't turn a profit now..

 

[777forever]

They can't turn a profit now..

Expressjet is breakeven right now. Only 50% of merger synergies met so far. Profitability projected to return in 2014.

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[Nevets]

Expressjet is breakeven right now. Only 50% of merger synergies met so far. Profitability projected to return in 2014.

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Where is the other 50% coming from? I doubt they will be profitable in 2014.

 

[Jon Rivoli]

The author begins his article singing the praises of Air Lease, then bashes SkyWest for buying airplanes. The Owner, founder and CEO of Air Lease sits on the SkyWest BOD. I'm pretty sure if leasing were more favorable, SkyWest would be leasing aircraft.