Regional Staffing With Upcoming Retirements And Work Rules

[CaribPilot]

Do you guys think some regionals will implode due to lack of staffing?

Add in that equation the fact that many banks aren't financing flight training anymore, and not as many people are flight training compared to 5+ years ago.

Somebody please look into their crystal ball and give an accurate future picture of things to come.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

Pay is poor and schedules brutal. Who wants to fly for a regional.

 

[cynic]

Flying airplanes is stupid easy and better than working at walmart... there is an endless supply of bar tards with a credit card ready to 'graduate' from pilot school and start at an airline.

And if you don't have any other options it's not that bad of a gig

 

[LearLove]

at the local airport where I keep my plane the flight school has no "young" students (high school, college or just post college age) learning to fly. All the students that I have seen in the past few years are professionals in their 40's and 50's learning to fly as a hobby.

Of the 200 (ish) planes hangared/tied down at the field I think I'm the only owner in the below 40 age segment to have a plane. All the other owners I know are age 50 or more with a majority being over 60 (except one Pitts guy who is in his 40's and flies for NJA).

 

[Cpt Oveur]

Will the pilots of the major airlines successfully negotiate a 100 seat pay rate that management will agree to? That's the real question...

 

[Inconceivable]

Regional airlines will subsidize Part 142 training for new employees and bind them with an employment contract and promissory note. Providing initial training from zero to hero is still far cheaper than paying competitive wages to attract employees that would have to be projected through to the entire pilot group. It's not what you want to hear, but it is the least expensive solution for the airlines.

They still haven't hit the bottom of the barrel yet. When they do, they will buy some pilots and start from scratch - not pay everyone more. After all, why should they pay YOU more? - you're already doing the job for present wages.

It will increase total airline training and staffing costs, meaning even less money available for your next contract negotiation. So, if you want to know where the money is going to come from to train the next generation of regional airline pilots just look in the mirror.

 

[xjlifer]

Regional airlines will subsidize Part 142 training for new employees and bind them with an employment contract and promissory note. Providing initial training from zero to hero is still far cheaper than paying competitive wages to attract employees that would have to be projected through to the entire pilot group. It's not what you want to hear, but it is the least expensive solution for the airlines.

They still haven't hit the bottom of the barrel yet. When they do, they will buy some pilots and start from scratch - not pay everyone more. After all, why should they pay YOU more? - you're already doing the job for present wages.

It will increase total airline training and staffing costs, meaning even less money available for your next contract negotiation. So, if you want to know where the money is going to come from to train the next generation of regional airline pilots just look in the mirror.

I wish that wasn't true....but that or some variation will probably happen.

The other way out will be for Sen McCain to get his wish of "open skies" then air mexico and every other airline in the world will fly US domestic routes.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

They still haven't hit the bottom of the barrel yet. When they do, they will buy some pilots and start from scratch - not pay everyone more. After all, why should they pay YOU more? - you're already doing the job for present wages.

I think when they started putting guys on the line with 300 TT and 25 ME, they hit rock bottom. Not to mention a lack of a college degree, CFI certificate or any PIC flying experience to speak of.

 

[bri5150]

Flying airplanes is stupid easy and better than working at walmart... there is an endless supply of bar tards with a credit card ready to 'graduate' from pilot school and start at an airline.

And if you don't have any other options it's not that bad of a gig

Not this again...you get old.

 

[wms]

Vv

I think when they started putting guys on the line with 300 TT and 25 ME, they hit rock bottom. Not to mention a lack of a college degree, CFI certificate or any PIC flying experience to speak of.

You referring to UAL in an earlier decade?

 

[johnpeace]

Not this again...you get old.

He's almost right. This IS an easy job for modestly intelligent/capable people to do. It's not all that demanding and it's not a hard job to be really good at.

The problem though is that flight time requirements for newhires are going to be financially unattainable. New airline pilots would HAVE to be professional pilots with 1000 hrs or so of actual, professional pilot experience. Few people can afford to rent an airplane to fly 1000 hrs in.

But, what will likely happen is some form of reduced flight time mins (500 hrs? 300?) for graduates from some training program that looks good on paper (ATP? God help us!). Which just puts us right back at 300/25 'pilots' who have a bunch of experience riding around in an airplane with their buddy...but virtually no real decision making or even critical thinking/situation evaluation ability.

Kinda' like the last hiring spree.

Regional airlines will subsidize Part 142 training for new employees and bind them with an employment contract and promissory note. Providing initial training from zero to hero is still far cheaper than paying competitive wages to attract employees that would have to be projected through to the entire pilot group. It's not what you want to hear, but it is the least expensive solution for the airlines.

They still haven't hit the bottom of the barrel yet. When they do, they will buy some pilots and start from scratch - not pay everyone more. After all, why should they pay YOU more? - you're already doing the job for present wages.

I don't think our unions would find that acceptable at all. That amounts to the company offering newhires a substantial asset/benefit (their flight training) that isn't available to the rest of the pilot group.

Perhaps our JCBA should reflect the potential for this and include language to mitigate it.

 

[777forever]

Flying airplanes is stupid easy and better than working at walmart... there is an endless supply of bar tards with a credit card ready to 'graduate' from pilot school and start at an airline.

And if you don't have any other options it's not that bad of a gig

Its stupid easy most of the time, until you get an emergency. It can happen to anyone of us, any day. Just remember we are always 2 geese going thru both engines and shutting them down on climb out away from this being a very very difficult job.

Google the Quantas A380 uncontained engine failure. Not so stupid easy is it?

 

[cynic]

Its stupid easy most of the time, until you get an emergency. It can happen to anyone of us, any day. Just remember we are always 2 geese going thru both engines and shutting them down on climb out away from this being a very very difficult job.

Google the Quantas A380 uncontained engine failure. Not so stupid easy is it?

Look guys... I wish becoming a pilot were harder and I wish it paid more and I FULLY acknowledge there are good and bad pilots and I've even flown with former navy pilots that were far more skilled than I.

My point is that getting a commercial or even an ATP is stupid easy and airlines don't care how good of a pilot you are and that... there is a line of bar tards with credit cards ready to sign up for a job that is better than working at walmart. At least after a few years you can make decent money,

 

[bri5150]

He's almost right. This IS an easy job for modestly intelligent/capable people to do. It's not all that demanding and it's not a hard job to be really good at.

The problem though is that flight time requirements for newhires are going to be financially unattainable. New airline pilots would HAVE to be professional pilots with 1000 hrs or so of actual, professional pilot experience. Few people can afford to rent an airplane to fly 1000 hrs in.

But, what will likely happen is some form of reduced flight time mins (500 hrs? 300?) for graduates from some training program that looks good on paper (ATP? God help us!). Which just puts us right back at 300/25 'pilots' who have a bunch of experience riding around in an airplane with their buddy...but virtually no real decision making or even critical thinking/situation evaluation ability.

Kinda' like the last hiring spree.



I don't think our unions would find that acceptable at all. That amounts to the company offering newhires a substantial asset/benefit (their flight training) that isn't available to the rest of the pilot group.

Perhaps our JCBA should reflect the potential for this and include language to mitigate it.

I completely agree with your view. It requires a "modest" amount of intelligence. Cynic's view is that anyone with a pulse and a credit card can do it. That is 100% completely false.

 

[bri5150]

Its stupid easy most of the time, until you get an emergency. It can happen to anyone of us, any day. Just remember we are always 2 geese going thru both engines and shutting them down on climb out away from this being a very very difficult job.

Google the Quantas A380 uncontained engine failure. Not so stupid easy is it?

I couldn't agree more with your post.

 

[bri5150]

Look guys... I wish becoming a pilot were harder and I wish it paid more and I FULLY acknowledge there are good and bad pilots and I've even flown with former navy pilots that were far more skilled than I.

My point is that getting a commercial or even an ATP is stupid easy and airlines don't care how good of a pilot you are and that... there is a line of bar tards with credit cards ready to sign up for a job that is better than working at walmart. At least after a few years you can make decent money,

If it's so "stupid easy", and airlines don't care about how good of a pilot you are, why do people fail checkrides? I understand you may get retrained, but you certainly won't be high on the list to get on with another airline with multiple failures. Heck, you may even lose your current job.

 

[johnpeace]

If it's so "stupid easy", and airlines don't care about how good of a pilot you are, why do people fail checkrides?

Not everyone who tries can do even easy things.

 

[Flyer1015]

Vv

You referring to UAL in an earlier decade?

That was done to hire females and minorities, to "diversify."

 

[cynic]

People fail out of the training at McDonalds! There is a bar for commercial aviation, it's just REALLY low.

 

[Jetjockey]

Ahh..... Cynic is back gracing us lowly pilots with his superior intellect. I find it ironic how someone with such a superior career and self-described intellegence reads and repsonds to a pilot (Bar tard...whatever that is) message board. I suppose the Mensa message board gets a bit dull.

 

[701EV]

I see one or two of the majors buying up a regional IF the pilot shortage comes to pass. That way they will have the pilots that they will need for future retirements. That way they are not competing for pilots IF there is a real pilot shortage. BIG IF.

I never understand why pilots sell themselves short on how easy this job is. If it was that easy everybody would be a pilot and we would make $10 an hour. You have to have a little higher level of intelligence. If you ask a pro baseball player about playing baseball he'll tell you it's easy. There are a lot of guys trying to get to the show. Well many never get there no matter how hard they try because you have to have some talent. Our talent is we can fly airplanes.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[nisx]

at the local airport where I keep my plane the flight school has no "young" students (high school, college or just post college age) learning to fly. All the students that I have seen in the past few years are professionals in their 40's and 50's learning to fly as a hobby.

Of the 200 (ish) planes hangared/tied down at the field I think I'm the only owner in the below 40 age segment to have a plane. All the other owners I know are age 50 or more with a majority being over 60 (except one Pitts guy who is in his 40's and flies for NJA).

Spot on. Almost half the people I know who have owned planes over the last decade, more than half have already sold, the majority of the rest would be open to selling. The flight school I used to work at, average age is 45 for student pilots. None currently pursing anything past the IR. Schools are raising the hourly rates and some are adding a fuel surcharge. Instructor rates have also gone up across the board. GA airports out here seem very slow.

 

[tomgoodman]

If it's so "stupid easy", and airlines don't care about how good of a pilot you are, why do people fail checkrides?

Because they have bad luck. Nobody wants to employ an unlucky pilot.

 

[Varmint]

Pay is poor and schedules brutal. Who wants to fly for a regional.

There are plenty of "lifers" at regionals.

 

[paid4training]

If there is such a run on regional pilot opportunities why did republic recently cancel the may class? I think the companies are trying to squeeze every ounce out of pilot utilization they can because the majors are expecting low price for the contract flying.

 

[atpcliff]

The other way out will be for Sen McCain to get his wish of "open skies" then air mexico and every other airline in the world will fly US domestic routes.

But, where would they find the pilots? They would have to hire a TON of Americans to have enough, and the average pilot wage might go up, as many countries pay more to pilots than America does.

cliff
PVG

 

[sqwkvfr]

If there is such a run on regional pilot opportunities why did republic recently cancel the may class?

Because of problems holding hotel rooms for indoc during the Indy 500.

 

[Flyguy1226]

I bet if we had similar training standards and tests compared to JAA, a lot of folks wouldn't make it! None of this picking up a Gleim and memorizing the answers. You'd actually have to know stuff and study! Would airlines pay more? Maybe.

 

[xjlifer]

The other way out will be for Sen McCain to get his wish of "open skies" then air mexico and every other airline in the world will fly US domestic routes.

But, where would they find the pilots? They would have to hire a TON of Americans to have enough, and the average pilot wage might go up, as many countries pay more to pilots than America does.

cliff
PVG

If the barrier to entry is kept low (no 1500 hour rule) then ramping up and spitting out pilots fast will not be a issue. The foreign carriers would love for open skies as would most US carriers.

 

[A-V-8]

In the first 5 years of attrition my paperwork shows north of 11500 cumulative pilot retirements. The top 25% or so of my airline (Mesa) has no intention of even applying for another job. I can’t imagine the majority of the regional’s being that much different. So take out one fourth and then subtract the guys that aren’t interested in a major at all that will move on to corporate jobs and those that will leave aviation entirely. That is not enough pilots if the 1500 hour rule is in place. It is currently not. There will be plenty of pilots in the short term after attrition starts. What happens after that will depend on this 1500 hour rule. If it passes good for me. I have 1500 but I didn’t have that when I was hired at Mesa. If you think some company like Mesa will pay for flight training I can’t see that happening. We are already on a shoe string budget. Other regional’s have to buy parts from the same places we do. Planes and engine rentals are nearly the same. What gives? The regionals will not be able to afford the training in the short term. If the contracts with the majors change then maybe. Either way the status quo will not be sustainable. Something will have to give. I can’t see me giving anything at all. I am not far from the floor of what I am willing to work for. If I could find a good job right now I would be out. Just going to roll the dice at a few good majors when the attrition starts and if there is no joy I will keep looking, just not at the airlines. This shortage will be regional in nature. There will always be people willing to go to a major no matter what they offer. SkyBus comes to mind. Anyway I went to China in pursuit of financial prosperity but I failed the medical. When push comes to shove around 2013 if am still at mesa I’ll be looking for a non airline job.