Regional Staffing With Upcoming Retirements And Work Rules

[701EV]

I see one or two of the majors buying up a regional IF the pilot shortage comes to pass. That way they will have the pilots that they will need for future retirements. That way they are not competing for pilots IF there is a real pilot shortage. BIG IF.

I never understand why pilots sell themselves short on how easy this job is. If it was that easy everybody would be a pilot and we would make $10 an hour. You have to have a little higher level of intelligence. If you ask a pro baseball player about playing baseball he'll tell you it's easy. There are a lot of guys trying to get to the show. Well many never get there no matter how hard they try because you have to have some talent. Our talent is we can fly airplanes.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[nisx]

at the local airport where I keep my plane the flight school has no "young" students (high school, college or just post college age) learning to fly. All the students that I have seen in the past few years are professionals in their 40's and 50's learning to fly as a hobby.

Of the 200 (ish) planes hangared/tied down at the field I think I'm the only owner in the below 40 age segment to have a plane. All the other owners I know are age 50 or more with a majority being over 60 (except one Pitts guy who is in his 40's and flies for NJA).

Spot on. Almost half the people I know who have owned planes over the last decade, more than half have already sold, the majority of the rest would be open to selling. The flight school I used to work at, average age is 45 for student pilots. None currently pursing anything past the IR. Schools are raising the hourly rates and some are adding a fuel surcharge. Instructor rates have also gone up across the board. GA airports out here seem very slow.

 

[tomgoodman]

If it's so "stupid easy", and airlines don't care about how good of a pilot you are, why do people fail checkrides?

Because they have bad luck. Nobody wants to employ an unlucky pilot.

 

[Varmint]

Pay is poor and schedules brutal. Who wants to fly for a regional.

There are plenty of "lifers" at regionals.

 

[paid4training]

If there is such a run on regional pilot opportunities why did republic recently cancel the may class? I think the companies are trying to squeeze every ounce out of pilot utilization they can because the majors are expecting low price for the contract flying.

 

[atpcliff]

The other way out will be for Sen McCain to get his wish of "open skies" then air mexico and every other airline in the world will fly US domestic routes.

But, where would they find the pilots? They would have to hire a TON of Americans to have enough, and the average pilot wage might go up, as many countries pay more to pilots than America does.

cliff
PVG

 

[sqwkvfr]

If there is such a run on regional pilot opportunities why did republic recently cancel the may class?

Because of problems holding hotel rooms for indoc during the Indy 500.

 

[Flyguy1226]

I bet if we had similar training standards and tests compared to JAA, a lot of folks wouldn't make it! None of this picking up a Gleim and memorizing the answers. You'd actually have to know stuff and study! Would airlines pay more? Maybe.

 

[xjlifer]

The other way out will be for Sen McCain to get his wish of "open skies" then air mexico and every other airline in the world will fly US domestic routes.

But, where would they find the pilots? They would have to hire a TON of Americans to have enough, and the average pilot wage might go up, as many countries pay more to pilots than America does.

cliff
PVG

If the barrier to entry is kept low (no 1500 hour rule) then ramping up and spitting out pilots fast will not be a issue. The foreign carriers would love for open skies as would most US carriers.

 

[A-V-8]

In the first 5 years of attrition my paperwork shows north of 11500 cumulative pilot retirements. The top 25% or so of my airline (Mesa) has no intention of even applying for another job. I can’t imagine the majority of the regional’s being that much different. So take out one fourth and then subtract the guys that aren’t interested in a major at all that will move on to corporate jobs and those that will leave aviation entirely. That is not enough pilots if the 1500 hour rule is in place. It is currently not. There will be plenty of pilots in the short term after attrition starts. What happens after that will depend on this 1500 hour rule. If it passes good for me. I have 1500 but I didn’t have that when I was hired at Mesa. If you think some company like Mesa will pay for flight training I can’t see that happening. We are already on a shoe string budget. Other regional’s have to buy parts from the same places we do. Planes and engine rentals are nearly the same. What gives? The regionals will not be able to afford the training in the short term. If the contracts with the majors change then maybe. Either way the status quo will not be sustainable. Something will have to give. I can’t see me giving anything at all. I am not far from the floor of what I am willing to work for. If I could find a good job right now I would be out. Just going to roll the dice at a few good majors when the attrition starts and if there is no joy I will keep looking, just not at the airlines. This shortage will be regional in nature. There will always be people willing to go to a major no matter what they offer. SkyBus comes to mind. Anyway I went to China in pursuit of financial prosperity but I failed the medical. When push comes to shove around 2013 if am still at mesa I’ll be looking for a non airline job.

 

[ex j-41]

Those that say this is an easy industry obiously had Mom and Pop pay their way. Take some kid off the street. Give him/her a min wage job and tell him that in 5 years they have to be a commercial pilot at a regional airline. What do you think the success rate will be? So if say1% get through can you still call it easy? Fact is that if you desire to work at this job chances are you can. You don't have to be a rocket scientist. But you do need the drive and desire. These are in short supply right now. Expecially those that want to do this job.

 

[FORESTGUMP]

I don't think our unions would find that acceptable at all. That amounts to the company offering newhires a substantial asset/benefit (their flight training) that isn't available to the rest of the pilot group.

Perhaps our JCBA should reflect the potential for this and include language to mitigate it.

Its already happened....all one had to do to get free school, training, a GUARANTEED job at ASA and a GUARANTEED interview with big D......be black (and female was a plus)....and nobody (especially ALPA) said a word against it.....in fact, it was praised as a wonderful achievement for equality.....

just sayin'

 

[Inconceivable]

I don't think our unions would find that acceptable at all. That amounts to the company offering newhires a substantial asset/benefit (their flight training) that isn't available to the rest of the pilot group.

Perhaps our JCBA should reflect the potential for this and include language to mitigate it.

Not really relevant. They aren't employees yet so they are not covered by the CBA. Unless the contract has a section specifically barring the practice, sourcing employees (and whatever happens before they are employees) falls squarely under management rights.

 

[Trcb777]

I was flying with a guy who was saying this job is so easy a monkey can do it...blah blah blah. During the trip he started studying for his pc, which was about 2 months away. He said the day to day ops are easy. I'm sure a family doctors normal routine is pretty easy too, until a patient needs more then a free sample of the latest antibiotic. Most doctors have above average Intelligence and have hard time flying a bonanza.(bad joke).

I have a friend who is a orthopedic surgeon at the Cleveland Clinic and loves flying and is taking lessons. He finds it very challenging and is working on his instrument rating. Hope he stays away from the v-tail...

Doctors do a great job controlling supply and demand of entering the field by controlling admission into medical school and keeping very high standards. Maybe if a pilot gets to the airlines via the zero to hero route in 9 months, he might feel like it didn't take much. If you had to instruct at different fbo's for years with old, beat up aircraft or was a freight dog flying at night, solo, skirting thunderstorms for a few years you might look at it differently. Don't sell yourself short.

 

[jmreii]

I was flying with a guy who was saying this job is so easy a monkey can do it...blah blah blah. During the trip he started studying for his pc, which was about 2 months away. He said the day to day ops are easy. I'm sure a family doctors normal routine is pretty easy too, until a patient needs more then a free sample of the latest antibiotic. Most doctors have above average Intelligence and have hard time flying a bonanza.(bad joke).

I have a friend who is a orthopedic surgeon at the Cleveland Clinic and loves flying and is taking lessons. He finds it very challenging and is working on his instrument rating. Hope he stays away from the v-tail...

Doctors do a great job controlling supply and demand of entering the field by controlling admission into medical school and keeping very high standards. Maybe if a pilot gets to the airlines via the zero to hero route in 9 months, he might feel like it didn't take much. If you had to instruct at different fbo's for years with old, beat up aircraft or was a freight dog flying at night, solo, skirting thunderstorms for a few years you might look at it differently. Don't sell yourself short.

The experience you describe has taught me to never work for a company or industry in which values equipment more than employees as an asset.

 

[timeless]

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2010/

These charts are very informative and suggest that a pilot shortage is possible. These are a few details that stood out to me.

New commercial pilot certificates issued:
2002 - 12,299
2010 - 8,056

There are 24,487 pilots with commercial or ATP certificates aged 30-34
There are 35,949 pilots with commercial or ATP certificates aged 50-54

 

[nwa747]

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2010/

These charts are very informative and suggest that a pilot shortage is possible. These are a few details that stood out to me.

New commercial pilot certificates issued:
2002 - 12,299
2010 - 8,056

There are 24,487 pilots with commercial or ATP certificates aged 30-34
There are 35,949 pilots with commercial or ATP certificates aged 50-54

What that statistic isn't showing is a large percentage of certificates were issued to foreigners training here in the USA. I bet in 2002 less then 10% were issued to foreigners. In 2010 my guess is 40% of those certificates were issued to foreigners. Call around no Americans are training at the large 141's anyone more, and I mean NO ONE.

Another interesting stat is only 4326 CFI's age 20-25. This tells me the well is running dry.

 

[pilotyip]

Pay is poor and schedules brutal. Who wants to fly for a regional.

I have a 41 year old career changing student who is hoping to get that job. I think he is going to fly because he likes to.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

I have a 41 year old career changing student who is hoping to get that job. I think he is going to fly because he likes to.

Loves and likes dont pay bills. Its a noble sentiment, though.

Lets hope your friend has ample wealth or no wife and kids to support. Those first few yrs of regional pay are absolutely disgraceful and hardly livable for many without some severe sarcrfices and cutbacks in lifestyle.

 

[SLUF4]

I was flying with a guy who was saying this job is so easy a monkey can do it...blah blah blah. During the trip he started studying for his pc, which was about 2 months away. He said the day to day ops are easy. I'm sure a family doctors normal routine is pretty easy too, until a patient needs more then a free sample of the latest antibiotic. Most doctors have above average Intelligence and have hard time flying a bonanza.(bad joke).

I have a friend who is a orthopedic surgeon at the Cleveland Clinic and loves flying and is taking lessons. He finds it very challenging and is working on his instrument rating. Hope he stays away from the v-tail...

Doctors do a great job controlling supply and demand of entering the field by controlling admission into medical school and keeping very high standards. Maybe if a pilot gets to the airlines via the zero to hero route in 9 months, he might feel like it didn't take much. If you had to instruct at different fbo's for years with old, beat up aircraft or was a freight dog flying at night, solo, skirting thunderstorms for a few years you might look at it differently. Don't sell yourself short.

I agree completely and the pilots that tell everyone "this job is sooo easy" only hurt their chances of getting more pay and respect.