I'm afraid it's not as clinical, easy a decision as you make it sound. I'm not busting your chops because a lot of what you say is true, but until you walk a mile in my shoes you'll never understand the process every Capt with 15 plus years has to go through. If I was single, I would be chasing a major as you suggest as I would have 18 years at a major. If others didn't mind commuting, they might. If they didn't mind being on reserve with Tuesdays and Wednsdays off they might jump ship. If you don't mind being on the bottom of a seniority list should something catastrophic happen to the economy, then they might go. That mortgage check is due if I have a job or not.
No disrespect meant, but you can't understand the balancing act that makes what you think to be a no brainer a complicated decision.
And I purposely tried to generalize, not trying to pick on you Russ. Sure, everyone is unique, with unique circumstances. But, overall, even senior Capts should make the switch, but saving a bit prior is a must also. Nobody likes a pay cut, but a year or two of lower pay suddenly turns into many years of higher pay and better retirement.
Sure, there is ALWAYS a potential situation that could SCARE you into not doing anything. A natural disaster. A terrorist attack. But, since 9-11, the last major thing that caused legacy retraction and furloughs, a few things have changed the direction of this industry.
First, Consolidation. 8 big airlines turned into 4. Consolidation will create stronger airlines, less inclined to furlough pilots on a whim. Stronger airlines will grow to compete globally, helping everyone who works there.
Next, bag and change fees. Passengers seem to accept them now, and they weren't around pre Bk for most airlines. Those fees add billions in profits, paying down debt and other obligations. It also allows the legacies to make money to order new planes. You need new planes to compete globally.
Lastly, retirements. All 3 legacies will have to retire 5,000 each within the next 10 years. That means more upward movement than EVER. Each Widebody Capt that leaves creates lots of movement below, and DL for example loses around 800 pilots per year for 4 straight years coming up here, and then 650 the next year. About 4000 in 5 years to age 65. (2020-2024). If someone were to get on on in the next couple years, you would be set. Each year like the above, you would be able to jump up a couple plane types or sizes. With 141 retirements this year, DL is already having new bids every 45 days or so. What will it be like when 800 leave? Now think of that movement for 5 years in a row. The only thing stopping huge movement is a seat hold, and for a new hire it's one year for your initial assignment, and then two years for any AE, or advanced entitlement you WANT. It will probably be the same at AA and UAL. Not so much at SWA due to fewer overall retirements, and only one plane type.
So, things have changed a lot since the 9-11 downfall. High oil has killed the 50 seat market and Regionals are unlikely to get scope relief from stronger mainline pilot positions at the bargaining table. Higher profits mean fewer concessions. Mainline pilots instead are finally flying smaller mainline planes (DL717s, AA319s), replacing the RJs on many routes.
Things are changing for the better, and senior RJ pilots should consider change, save up some money, and take the plunge. Look at the 77 Mesaba flow ups. They are starting class or have started recently. Those guys were senior CR9 Capts, and I would think they are very happy with their situations, coming in at the very beginning of a BIG hiring wave. You guys have time, save some money and throw in those apps. Good luck.
Bye Bye---General Lee
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