Questions

[kenimpzoom]

Gents,



I am a newby and only registered to start a dialogue about what might have happened in the crash of my uncle’s plane. If this is not appropriate, then mods you may delete it, but I would really appreciate your help. I know the NTSB will be very slow, so any and all ideas as to what you think might have happened are welcome. Please be brutally honest if you have to, don’t sugarcoat.

I know a lot about flying, and the mechanics of it all.



My uncle was killed in San Antonio on Nov 14th. He had 40 years of flying experience. He had an air freight business for 15 years, and owned 6-7 planes. He had tons and tons of flying experience. I thought I had heard he had 45,000 hours, but not sure. For the last 5 years he had been retired, but still flew a corporate plane for his “retirement” job. He had flown out of that airport most of his life, so he knew it like the back of his hand. He was the nicest guy you could know. He was very meticulous, I remember flying with him several years ago, and he made sure he had the weight distribution correct, and that we were not overloaded.



What I am asking is, for yall to speculate as to what might have happened.



Here is a newspaper story that includes all the details:

A senior investigator with the National Transportation Safety Board said today that the small airplane that crashed late Sunday afternoon veered off its approach course before the fatal accident and that the pilot did not declare an emergency.

Five people died late Sunday when the Piper Navajo crashed near an apartment building on San Antonio's North Side.

Alex Lemishko of the NTSB told reporters today that investigators will focus on the weather, aircraft maintenance records and why the pilot may have turned off course. He said that although no cause has been ruled out, fuel starvation is not considered likely because a flash fire started when the plane hit the ground.

“In this type of investigation, we don’t have a lot to go on,” he said.

Lemishko said he believes the plane crashed nose-first and that its engines are buried.

Air traffic controllers asked the pilot his altitude on approach and were told 2,500 feet, Lemishko said. They asked him to climb to 3,000 feet but got no response.

The last radar contact showed the plane at 1,300 feet. Lemishko said the drop from 2,500 to 1,300 feet was rapid.

Cloud cover was only about 400 feet, he said, meaning it’s not likely the pilot could have been aware of his surroundings before the crash. The plane’s wing struck the roof of an apartment with a resident inside, punching a hole in the building, but no one on the ground was injured.

It's likely the small, private plane did not have a “black box” that would have recorded flight data and the pilot's voice in the moments before the crash.

Frank McGill, a senior investigator with the NTSB, said that years of investigating plane crashes should help determine what led to Sunday's fatal incident.

“We've been doing this a long time,” said McGill, who is not investigating this accident. “You start off by going through the weather. Then he'll cover the training this pilot had, his amount of flying time. And then there is the airplane itself — the fuselage and the engine.”

NTSB, which is the lead agency in charge of the investigation, should have a preliminary report issued within four or five days, McGill said, but warned that it would not contain much information. A final report will take more time to be issued.

“Sometimes it doesn't take long at all,” he said. “Sometimes it takes months.”

A spokesman for the Federal Aviation Administration said both the plane and the pilot had clean records. The plane was manufactured in 1980 — modern by aviation standards.

“You see a lot of airplanes from the '60s and '70s and they're up-to-date and totally flyable,” said spokesman Roland Herwig. “It has no prior incidents or accidents.”

The pilot, Jerry W. Oyler, didn't have any reports of accidents, incidents or enforcements from the FAA, Herwig said.

The plane, which flew here from Dodge City, Kan., narrowly missed an apartment building for seniors in the 3800 block of West Avenue.

 

[kenimpzoom]

If it was mechanical failure, the only thing I could think of, is the instruments failed. I doubt they could fly all they way from Kansas, only to have an engine or control surface fail right there. Plus it was a twin engine. There was plenty of gas.

I am thinking the level flight gauge failed, he pulled up, went into a stall, and was too low to pull out.

Thanks for any replies.

Ken

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

Not much to go on there. It could be anything from pilot incapacitated by some medical problem, to mechanical problems, or he just screwed up.

If I were you I would wait for the NTSB to at least see if the airplane was functioning correctly. They can normally rule out, or find mechanical failure pretty quick by sifting through the wreckage.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Yea, I dont know about medical problems. Hopefully the autopsy will help. He was very fit, but other than that, I dont know.

One other question, the way I have read NTSB reports there are only two causes. Mechanical failure or pilot error. Is this correct? In other words, if the pilot flys into bad weather, it is pilot error?

Thanks, ken

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

If it was mechanical failure, the only thing I could think of, is the instruments failed. I doubt they could fly all they way from Kansas, only to have an engine or control surface fail right there. Plus it was a twin engine. There was plenty of gas.

I am thinking the level flight gauge failed, he pulled up, went into a stall, and was too low to pull out.

Thanks for any replies.

Ken

The Navajo has duel vacuum systems, and many are equipped with duel attitude indicators. Even if it was only equipped with one A/I and it failed, your uncle should have been able to fly it by using the other systems. A pilot is not supposed to crash just because he lost one instrument.

If it was because of an A/I failure then your uncle will be faulted by the NTSB for the accident with a contributing factor being the instrument failure.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

Yea, I dont know about medical problems. Hopefully the autopsy will help. He was very fit, but other than that, I dont know.

One other question, the way I have read NTSB reports there are only two causes. Mechanical failure or pilot error. Is this correct? In other words, if the pilot flys into bad weather, it is pilot error?

Thanks, ken

Unless the airplane comes apart around a pilot for no good reason, the pilot is normally faulted for any loss of control or errors in judgment (ie. flying into thunderstorms etc...)

Let me add that I am not an accident investigator in any way. I am taking a best guess at what the NTSB might say in the situation that you described.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Thanks a lot for your insite Kero.

I would also think that even if all gages fail, a person with his experience would not pull up enough to cause a stall. I know spacial disorientation is very real, and in fact, once while flying with my uncle, I experienced it. But I doubt it in this cause cause he would certainly hear the engines lugging with a steep climb.

One other question, what would be the normal flaps setting for landing, If you go around to attempt another landing (as my uncle did), do you put flaps back in the "normal flight" position, or do you keep them in the "landing" position. What about the landing gear?

Ken

 

[avbug]

Ken,

No useful information is presently available. Most sincere condolences to your family for the loss. Speculation is a futile effort in aviation events such as this; heaven knows the media does enough, and usually gets most everything wrong.

This crash was listed on this site, with no replies at:

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=43042

I realize that you feel a need to have answers. Sometimes the answers are clear, sometimes they're not. Sometimes they're never known. I do know that having the answers never makes the loss easier, only more understandable in cold, mechanical term. In dwelling on what has happened, I'd urge you to concentrate more on how the person lived than how they passed away. Those answers will come in time.

For now, rest in the knowledge that those who have died are hardly gone, just gone from our own sight. They still hear, they still see, they are still they...we just must wait a little while before we join them. Until then, there are memories and feelings, and they must suffice. I'm sorry for your loss.

The National Transportation Safety Board investigates these events. A preliminary report has not yet been published on what happened. You can check at the following site to see it when it is published. You should remember when you do see it that it's preliminary in nature only, and may contain errors or omissions. To see the NTSB database query, go here:

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

Thanks a lot for your insite Kero.

I would also think that even if all gages fail, a person with his experience would not pull up enough to cause a stall. I know spacial disorientation is very real, and in fact, once while flying with my uncle, I experienced it. But I doubt it in this cause cause he would certainly hear the engines lugging with a steep climb.

One other question, what would be the normal flaps setting for landing, If you go around to attempt another landing (as my uncle did), do you put flaps back in the "normal flight" position, or do you keep them in the "landing" position. What about the landing gear?

Ken

It has been a while since I flew a "jo" but normally it would be full flaps for landing and in the case of a missed approach the routine would be "Full Power(or take off power), Flaps to take off position (Whatever that may be) positive rate of climb, and then gear up"

The report did not mention what the temperature was at the time of the accident. IF, and I stress if, his pitot static probe (or probes) iced over that might explain the altitude deviation from the assigned 3000 ft. That could be either he forgot to turn on the P/S heat or it failed. However this is pure speculation since the is so little info to go on.

If I were you I would spare yourself all of the what if's and wait to see what the NTSB has to say after they inspect and test the wreckage and components.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Avbug, thanks for your reply and kind words.

I would like to say that the local media has actually done a pretty good job. They had interviews with people that spoke highly of my uncle. They did of course have to say "... it could have been weather, mechanical failure, or pilot error". But I knew it was coming, they have to do it for ratings. Still I think 90% of the media is a bunch of idiots.

I understand that speculation is futile. But I also know my family will begin to speculate, and I would like to be somewhat informed as to the aircraft specs and such.

Everytime they start to speculate, I try to tell them not to, but I know it will continue.

Ken

 

[kenimpzoom]

I thought of icing too, I think the temp was in the 50s. I know ice can form in weird conditions, but I would think that this would be a little too hot, also considering they were flying pretty low.

I found this info:

Cloudy drizzle enveloped the plane as it approached the airport. Federal investigators said it was about 2,500 feet high at the last contact and was headed to Runway 3.

Controllers reported it veered off the path, and they told Oyler to go up to 3,000 feet, but on the next radar contact, the plane quickly had dipped to about 1,300 feet.

By the time it cleared the clouds, at about 400 feet, the plane was heading down. About three miles from the airport it slammed into the ground outside a senior citizen apartment complex on West Avenue, narrowly missing a building, and burst into flames.

There had been no distress call from the plane.

 

[flyifrvfr]

First let me join those who sent condolences. I know this will sound idiotic but I have been pretty good at speculating causes of accidents in the past. With the lack of information contained in the newspaper, even I wouldn't specualte the cause of this accident. There simply isn't enough info to work with.

The article doesn't hint that the pilot made any distress calls. Witnesses are highly unreliable, and missing in this case. I would wait until the investigation is complete and more information becomes available. The one thing that keeps coming to mind is perhaps your uncle became incapacitated. Unfortunately, even people who are in great physical shape can suffer from heart attacks and such. Wait for the medical examiner to give a report.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Fly, thanks for your input. I agree there is very little to go by.

There were no distress calls, witnesses reported the plane was flying low, and then hit a tree. There was no reports of the plane being inverted, etc.

Here are some quotes from the newspaper.

Two teens playing basketball at a church nearby said they saw the tail end of the aircraft after hearing what seemed like a sputter.


The aircraft appeared to hit a tree and then the teens lost sight of it, until they saw flames.


"It sounded like a car backfiring but way louder," said Aaron Alvarez, 15, one of the teens. "I was hoping everyone got out all right."


More and more signs point to my uncle becoming incapacitated. We havent had the nerve to ask if there is enough left to determine if he had a heart attack.

I have also learned that there was someone sitting in the co-pilots seat. There was also a hunting dog on board.

It was a very hard hit, engines buried 6 feet in the ground.

I plan to talk to my uncles neighbor and get the facts. Appearently, the neighbor is a pilot also, and has the NTSB investigators contact info.

Ken

 

[kenimpzoom]

The pilot of a private plane that crashed near an apartment complex, killing all five people aboard, did not indicate he was in trouble as he dramatically veered off his approach to the San Antonio International Airport, officials said Monday.

A probe has begun into Sunday's plane crash on West Avenue that killed all five on board. Investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board and representatives from Piper Aircraft Inc. examined the wreckage Monday.


A lack of clues, coupled with the mangled plane body that left a crater more than five feet deep by six feet wide, hampered investigators as they dug through the wreckage of the deadliest crash in San Antonio in more than three decades.

"This is a complicated scene," said Alex Lemishko, lead investigator in the case for the National Transportation Safety Board.

"There was no declaration of a specific kind of emergency to give us an idea of where to look first, and then there's the sheer destruction of the aircraft."

While investigators continued to pick through the rubble at the Walnut Manor complex in the 3800 block of West Avenue on Monday, they began to paint a picture of the doomed flight's final minutes before it crashed nose-first into the earth about 5:20 p.m. Sunday.

Pilot Jerry W. Oyler; radiologist David McMurray and his son Ben McMurray; and Stewart "Skeet" Johnson, a general surgeon, and one of his twin sons, Hugh Johnson, were returning from a pheasant hunting trip and left the Dodge City, Kan., airport at 1:45 p.m.

They had been the guests of Ron Hermann, who owns Columbia 300 Inc., a local bowling ball manufacturer. Hermann's son, David, is vice president of Dash Air Charter Inc., which owned the plane.

Another plane returning hunters from the same trip arrived in San Antonio without incident about 30 minutes earlier.

Oyler, who was using instruments to land the Piper Navajo, suddenly veered off course, turning left. In his last communication with air traffic controllers, he reported he was at an altitude of 2,500 feet and climbing to 3,000 feet. Shortly afterward, radar indicated he was at 1,300 feet and descending.

The plane's right wing then clipped the apartment complex, coming through the roof of a second story unit. The craft then hit a tree and dove nose-first into the ground.

"There was a large amount of energy. The impact was forceful enough to create a large crater," Lemishko said. "No distress calls were heard. He didn't declare an emergency."

Among other factors, weather conditions will be studied. The sky was thick and overcast, and the conditions were appropriate for an instrument landing, Lemishko said.

"He would have been in the clouds during the entire approach," he said. "It's possible to become disoriented in the clouds."

After the impact, the plane's internal fuel bladders burst, causing a flash fire.

On Monday, the Bexar County medical examiner's office continued to recover bodies at the scene and was beginning the official identification process, which is expected to take several days and involve dental records. However, family, friends and officials confirmed the names of the dead.

Today, the plane's wreckage is to be moved to a warehouse in the Dallas area, where it can be scrutinized. While a preliminary report is expected this week, a final report may take three to six months or longer, Lemishko said.

"There's not a whole lot to look at," he said. "There's a lot of studying to be done."

It's likely the plane did not have a flight data recorder or a cockpit voice recorder, also known as "black boxes," that would have provided answers to investigators.

Oyler was a veteran pilot with 8,700 flying hours and was licensed to fly a variety of planes, Lemishko said.

"He had all the proper credentials to make this flight," he said. "He was qualified."

Both the plane, which was manufactured in 1980, and the pilot had clean records, according to Federal Aviation Administration records.

FAA spokesman Ronald Herwig said the Piper Navajo is a respected aircraft and, though the plane was 24 years old, it is considered modern.

"You see a lot of airplanes from the '60s and '70s and they're up-to-date and totally flyable," he said. "It has no prior incidents or accidents."

Lemishko said the fact the plane — which wedged tightly between a carport and the apartment building — didn't seriously hurt anyone on the ground was "a miracle."

The resident of the apartment where the wing crashed through the ceiling was in her kitchen at the time of the accident.

"From looking at the wreckage and the proximity to where people were living, it certainly is a godsend that no one was hurt," he said.

"I'm just amazed by the resiliency of the apartment residents — certainly it was traumatic."

On Monday, residents greeted each other warmly inside the building, hugging and kissing each other, and praying. Outside, one of the families that lost loved ones came by the scene to say a prayer.

James Couch stood outside his apartment complex, awed by the site of the crash that left little of the plane visible.

"That doesn't even look like an airplane," the 81-year-old said. "It's just a stack of junk.

"You don't see seats, you don't see a propeller, you don't see an engine. Coming down on a small space like that and no more damage was done — that's unbelievable."

 

[kenimpzoom]

Here is the preliminary NTSB report. Does it have any clues?

The way I read it (I am not a pilot), he was on approach, and was 1.3 miles left of the proper approach line, and then was told "looks like you lost the localizer, turn left heading two seven zero, climb and maintain three thousand five hundred". On the climb out and turn, something went wrong. He went into a hard left turn, and then who knows.

Do I have that correct????


I can think of two scenarios.

1) He lost all instruments and radio, and was dipping below cloud cover to try to gain a reference point, he became disoriented in the clouds, stalled it, and crashed.

2) He became incapacitated, and the person occupying the co pilots seat tried to take over, but was unable to fly. From what I have heard, the person in the co pilots seat had some basic knowledge of flying.

Any other possibilities?

Thanks, Ken


On November 11, 2004, approximately 1718 central standard time, a Piper PA-31-350 twin-engine airplane, N40731, registered to and operated by Dash Air Charter Inc., of San Antonio, Texas, was destroyed when it impacted a multi-unit residential building and the ground following a loss of control while on an instrument approach to runway 3 at the San Antonio International Airport (SAT), San Antonio, Texas. The commercial pilot and four passengers were fatally injured. Instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) prevailed, and an instrument flight plan was filed for the Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight. The cross country flight originated from the Dodge City Regional Airport (DDC), near Dodge City, Kansas, approximately 1345, and its final destination was SAT.

According to information provided to the NTSB investigator-in-charge (IIC) by friends and family members, the passengers on board the aircraft were returning home after a hunting trip. Preliminary information provided by the FAA and weather reporting services revealed that the en route portion of the flight from Dodge City was flown in instrument meteorological conditions. There were no reports of problems from the aircraft during the approximate 3 1/2-hour en route portion of the flight. As the aircraft neared its destination of San Antonio, the pilot established communications with San Antonio Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) and maneuvered to execute the Instrument Landing System (ILS) Runway 3 approach. The following are excerpts of radio communications between the pilot of the aircraft (N40731) and approach controllers (ATCT) in the minutes prior to the accident. In the excerpts, ATCT controllers identify the aircraft as "Navaho seven thirty one."

ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, turn left heading zero nine zero
N40731: Left turn, zero nine zero
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, descend and maintain, disregard, just three thousand five hundred for
Navajo seven thirty one, heading zero nine zero
N40731: Three thousand five hundred, zero nine zero
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, is three miles from RESOC, turn left zero six zero, three thousand five
hundred till RESOC, cleared I L S runway three, maintain max forward speed
N40731: Ok, left zero six zero, join localizer, maintain three point five till RESOC
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, San Antonio
N40731: Yes
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, looks like you lost the localizer, turn left heading two seven zero, climb
and maintain three thousand five hundred
N40731: Left turn two seven zero, three thousand five hundred
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, say altitude.
N40731: Climbing to three thousand
ATCT: Say altitude now
N40731: Two thousand five hundred
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, looks like you are in a left turn northeast bound, traffic one o'clock and a
mile, hard left turn now, heading three zero zero, hard left turn
ATCT: Seven thirty one, maintain three thousand five hundred, I show you at one thousand eight hundred
ATCT: Navajo seven thirty one, I lost your transponder

No further communications were received from the aircraft.

The ILS RWY 3 approach can be initiated via a radar vector to intercept to the final approach course at 4,000 or 3,500 feet msl depending on the location of the vector. The initial approach fix for the approach (RESOC) has a designated altitude of 3,500 until established on the 3.00 degree glide slope. The final approach fix (FAF) for the approach is located 5.4 miles from the runway threshold. The decision height for approach was 986 feet msl (200 feet height above touchdown) and is based on flying the full ILS with a fully operational ILS receiver. The published missed approach procedure for the approach is to climb to 1,700 feet msl, then execute a climbing left turn to 3,500 feet msl, heading 025 degrees, then proceed outbound via the SAT R-040 to SHEPE Intersection/SAT 18.4 DME and hold.

Preliminary radar data received from the FAA showed that the aircraft remained initially left of the localizer course line before turning right of the localizer approximately 2 miles before the final approach fix (FAF). Radar then showed the aircraft turn to the left of course line. When the aircraft was abeam the FAF, it was approximately 1 mile left of the course line. As the aircraft closed to approximately 1.5 miles from the runway threshold, the aircraft had veered about 1.3 miles left of the course line (at which time ATCT instructed the pilot to turn left to a heading of 270 degrees). The aircraft continued to turn left through the assigned heading and appeared to be heading back to the ILS course line. According to the radar, another aircraft was inbound on the ILS course line and ATCT instructed the pilot to turn left immediately. Thereafter, the aircraft went below radar coverage (approximately 1200 feet msl).

A witness, located approximately 1.25 miles northwest of the accident site, reported to the NTSB investigator-in-charge (IIC) that he heard a very loud noise, and then observed a small white airplane flying toward a building, approximately 60 feet in height. The airplane pitched up approximately 45 - 90 degrees just before the building and disappeared into the clouds. A second witness located approximately 1 mile northwest of the accident site reported to the IIC that he heard a low flying aircraft, and then observed a white twin-engine airplane banking left out of the clouds. The airplane leveled out, and flew into the clouds again a few seconds later. The witness added that he "saw no indications of problems, smoke, or visible damage to the airplane." The witness stated that the airplane was at an altitude of 100-200 feet above the ground. A third witness located adjacent to the accident site reported that they heard the sound of a low flying airplane in the distance. As it became louder and louder, they looked up and observed the airplane in a near vertical attitude as it impacted trees and the side of an apartment complex.

At 1732, the automated surface observing system at SAT reported wind from 050 degrees at 9 knots, visibility 4 statute miles, cloud condition overcast at 400 feet, temperature 54 degrees Fahrenheit, dew point 51 degrees Fahrenheit, and an altimeter setting of 30.29 inches of Mercury.