Lear,
I wasn't trying to get you to do anything. Didn't mean it to come off that way. Here's the deal...
DL upgrade to a narrow body is 7 years right now. It could drop to 5-6 soon. That's why I said you could easily retire a narrow body CA (you get that in 6 years) or a widebody FO. You won't upgrade here in 5-6 years. Not even close.
And by all means, you're entitled to your opinion on current negotiations, but to throw out the 'Embrace the Suck' with not knowing any real details is a little premature. The main point I was trying to make. I'm actually glad to have you on our team to review any TA we eventually get. The more eyes the better.
I appreciate that, really I do, thanks.
Right now MySeniority.com with the growth calculator set at 2% yearly fleet growth shows 8 years to upgrade. At 1% (which is probably about right with the additional staffing we've had to add lately plus next year's growth (I'll take whatever I can get) it's 10 years to hit 55% (which is where the most junior people seem to be able to hold it with the few who stay senior F/O and play the POT game).
That's 4 years of Small Jet CA at years 6-9 averaging $135 / hr (717 or their new Embraer rates if they even get them) * 80 hrs /mo = $10,800 month versus staying here at SWA 737 Max F/O rate (roughly $133/trip times the 90 per month I average) which is $11,990 per month. A $12k a year loss plus retirement, etc.
Plus the loss of that $12k a month NOW if I bailed for the next 5-6 years at new-hire Delta pay. I'd easily lose $250k-300k. If I could even get hired, who the heck knows.
The only thing that would make sense for me to go is if I could eventually make widebody CA to offset the money I lose over the next decade, and who would want to do that on reserve the last few years of their career? Plus the uncertainty of being at the bottom of a seniority list after a couple 2-3 years of upswing,,, we all know how this industry cycles.
Like I said, age really makes it not feasible. Trying to make the best of it, there's a lot of people who came before me that have had it worse (Eastern, PanAm), which I try to remember when I really get annoyed. Doesn't mean I won't stop pushing for those commutable lines.
Hopefully this contract will turn out better than I suspect. I'll do my part, all I can do is try.