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Possible sale of its Atlantic Southeast Airlines and Comair subsidiaries

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Jeesh and "On your Six" now chimes in....

Delta already sells Delta code on:

Delta Connection Carriers: American Eagle
Atlantic Southeast Airlines (ASA)
Chautauqua Airlines
Comair
SkyWest Airlines
SkyTeam Alliance: AeroMexico
Air France
Alitalia
Continental Airlines
CSA Czech Airlines
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Korean Air
Northwest Airlines

Codeshare Partners: Air Jamaica
Avianca
China Airlines
China Southern
El Al Israel Airlines
flybe.
Royal Air Maroc
SNCF French Rail
South African Airways

How exactly does selling ASA & Comair get Delta around scope restrictions? It looks like Delta already has a couple of codeshare partners, some of them have some pretty big airplanes.
 
As long as Delta owns ASA and Comair they have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to evaluate the possible sale of ASA or Comair. That is, to evaluate and re-evaluate every possible scenario that could increase shareholder wealth. GG was simply responding to a question posed that DL is open to any and all possibilities to increase wealth for the stockholders. That's his job.

That doesn't mean that DL is looking to sell them. Right now having a few wholly owneds and a few ASM buys have some tactical benefits. The wholly owned are nice because there's no markup on the ASMs like at Skywest or Chatauqua. So they are a bit cheaper in that respect. Skywest and Chatauqua are nice because it's easier to relatively quickly reduce ASMs if need be. (Such as with ACA).

So they have more flexibility splitting the RJ flying between wholly owneds and ASM buy carriers.
 
Thursday, December 16, 2004
Delta hints at Comair spinoff

Regional carrier could become a public company
By James Pilcher

Enquirer staff writer

NEW YORK - Delta Air Lines' top executive Wednesday publicly discussed the possibility of spinning off Comair, the first time financially strapped Delta has said its Erlanger-based subsidiary might play a different role in the future.
Chief executive officer Gerald Grinstein was careful to stop short of saying the airline is planning to make Comair an independent company. But he said the role of Comair and another regional subsidiary would be compared carefully against their value as assets in the coming months.

"We don't have to own them (Comair and Atlantic Southeast Airlines) to get the benefits from them," Grinstein told The Wings Club, an aviation group, during a question-and-answer session following prepared remarks. "We are looking very carefully at what to do next."

The subsidiaries "are extremely valuable in their role not only as feeders to our hubs ... but they are also very valuable assets, and we need to determine the best value over the long term," Grinstein said.

Comair officials had no comment on his remarks.
Analysts have speculated for years of the possibility of a spinoff, talk that heated up this fall.
A cash-starved Delta narrowly avoided bankruptcy through a last-minute concessions deal with its pilots in October. The Atlanta-based airline has lost more than $6 billion in the last three years and has a massive debt load.

Its stock closed Wednesday at $7.62, down 6 cents.
Comair, the nation's third-largest regional carrier, employs about 4,000 people at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport as part of Delta's second-largest hub. It was unclear Wednesday what impact a Comair spinoff could have on its employees or operations here.

After Grinstein spoke, Delta senior vice president and chief marketing officer Paul Matsen stressed that there are no plans to sell Comair or ASA. Delta spent $1.9 billion to buy Comair in January 2000, after previously spending more than $1 billion for ASA.

He reiterated Grinstein's comment that Comair remains a valuable asset, but noted that Delta also uses airlines it does not own to feed its main routes.
"The strategic benefits we garner from our strong position in regional jets can be achieved without ownership," Matsen said.

A spinoff was unlikely under the threat of bankruptcy, since potential shareholders of Comair would be scared off by the possibility that Delta would renege under Chapter 11 on its contracts.
But now that the threat of bankruptcy has been pushed off by at least a year through the pilot deals and new financing, a spinoff could make sense, airline analyst and consultant Julius Maldutis said.
"As they progress with the next step in remaking the company, they need to look at all their businesses, which would include a reassessment of the role and benefits of ASA and Comair," said Maldutis, president of New York-based consulting group Aviation Dynamics Inc. "That could potentially lead to using the two carriers to raise additional liquidity."

Comair was started in 1977 by a father-son team and became a vanguard in the domestic regional industry by introducing the regional jet and teaming up with Delta.
Delta eventually bought part of the company and, after tough negotiations, purchased the company outright in 2000. At the time of purchase, Comair was on the verge of reporting $1 billion in annual revenue, was one of the most profitable airlines in the industry and was the nation's largest regional carrier.

Since the purchase, Comair and Delta have not disclosed Comair's financial numbers separately.
But in the most recent report to the Department of Transportation, the airline reported a net profit of $32.1 million in the second quarter of 2004. Comair also had the lowest cost structure of the nation's seven largest regional carriers.
 
~~~^~~~ said:
How exactly does selling ASA & Comair get Delta around scope restrictions? It looks like Delta already has a couple of codeshare partners, some of them have some pretty big airplanes.
It gets around the 25% must be wholly-owned clause that was put in the recent contract. If both ASA/CMR were sold, these rules would no longer apply since there would be no wholly owned. DL could whore out connection flying as they please (still have to stay under the 50% cap for connection flying). But as mentioned before, DL would have to guarantee ASA/CMR some amount of flying otherwise no one will want to buy shares in ASA/CMR. DL would probably have to guarantee some growth, as few people want to buy shares in a company with no growth prospects.

I expect that DL will have to sell at least one of the two because DL will need the cash by late 05/early 06. Keep in mind that DL is still projecting losses in 2005, despite the recent concessions.
 
~~~^~~~ said:
News bulletin - Delta does not have "money in the bank." Delta has a limited supply of cash, some of which is revenue for tickets sold, but services not yet delivered. ASA and Comair's stock was used for collateral along with everything else at Delta. Believe me, your MEC knows Delta's financial position and where the money isn't.

The ASA / Comair contracts are not "lucrative." Delta forced changes in the contracts ( which was the major reason the shareholders bailed out and sold to Delta during the acquisition - I was one of them ). The reason why ACA dumped United and Delta was that their cost structure would be unprofitable in the current marketplace for small jet lift. They had no choice but to form Independence Air as a tool for survival. ( And that is not working either ).

ASA and Comair have low costs and are fighting to keep their heads above the water against competition from CHQ. In my opinion CHQ is a ponzi scheme. They have to grow, or die. So they will desperately fight for every hour of flying they can get. Delta of course uses this competition for their maximum benefit - and ALPA has forgotten the meaning of "alter ego" to try to prop up the majors.

Releasing an IPO into this hyper competitive firefight would be a sure sign Delta is simply trying to survive for the next six months. If it happens, it is a very ominous sign, like a debtor selling his house and moving in under a bridge with a bottle of booze. Look at Pan Am Shuttle and Ransome Pan AM Express if you need some historical perspective.

~~~^~~~
I didn't say that DAL "has money in the bank", although it does, I said the sale of ASA/CMR "would" be money in the bank.

As far as profitability, you and others have always touted how profitable ASA/CMR are. Even in todays market. Believe it or not there are people out there willing to invest $$$ in profitable airlines like ASA/CMR. No growth needed from DAL, just maintain the lucrative, profit guaranteed, Connection contract and bid on other RFPs. Has any Connection partner lost money? I don't think so, there'll be investors.

News Flash-Everyone is fighting to keep there heads above water these days, including DAL. These are not the heady days of 1999 when DAL poured $$$Billions$$$ into acquiring two RJ vendors as wholly owned. DAL is no longer awash in $$$ and the situation is precarious. If DAL can raise cash, improve it's liquidity, while still retaining the RJ lift, why not?

I would have thought you'd be dancing on the tarmac at the thought of relinquishing your wholly owned status. Haven't you and others lamented being acquired and gone on and on about how being a wholly owned stifled your career? This would be a great opportunity to return to your roots as an independent Connection Carrier.
 
I'm surprised this has not happended already. Everyone on Wall Street knows that both of those companies are an asset to Delta that is more valuable as a seperate entitiy. XJT led the way, Pinnacle followed a few years later. XJT started the wheels in motion before 9/11 and had to finish the deal because they started it. Pinnacle waited until the markets would better support an IPO. If 9/11 had not occured, I believe you would see XJT, Pinnacle, Eagle, Comair, and ASA all set up in a similar fashion. Now the question is do they IPO them or sell them? XJT, Pinnacle, and Republic have not done so hot in the IPO market. A sale of one of the entities may actually bring more cash to Delta than an IPO of "just another regional airline".


I've heard talk that Delta has actually approached SKYW and XJT about acquisitions of ASA. Comair was not mentioned, just ASA. Both of those companies have publicly stated that they are looking for merger opportunities. With ASA now in SLC, it would make sense for SKYW to grab them. And with XJT looking to acqurie another customer, it would be a quick way into the DAL family. If I were at ASA, I would be worried about the next year.
 
"I can't see it happening simply because both ASA and CMR are worthless without the DAL feed..."

Have you ever even been to CVG? CMR has it's own hub there and can function indepenently of DAL with no problem whatsoever. 100+ destinations, 600 departures daily, 100% of the a/c, the company HQ, and 100% of the crews are all based in CVG. You can get from just about any city east of the Mississippi with more than 50K population to any other similar size city with no more than 1 stop in CVG, all in a jet. Just add ticket sales and resurrect the marketing dept and presto: instant profitable airline. Please Mr. Grinstein, please, don't throw me in that briar patch.....
 
Caveman said:
"I can't see it happening simply because both ASA and CMR are worthless without the DAL feed..."

Have you ever even been to CVG? CMR has it's own hub there and can function indepenently of DAL with no problem whatsoever. 100+ destinations, 600 departures daily, 100% of the a/c, the company HQ, and 100% of the crews are all based in CVG. You can get from just about any city east of the Mississippi with more than 50K population to any other similar size city with no more than 1 stop in CVG, all in a jet. Just add ticket sales and resurrect the marketing dept and presto: instant profitable airline. Please Mr. Grinstein, please, don't throw me in that briar patch.....
You've got to be kidding me. CMR needs something to feed into. Your idea might work if there were tons of passengers going from Erie to Moline or New Haven to Shreveport. But those types of connections only make up a fraction of the traffic. Most of the people coming from those small towns are NOT going to other small towns....they're going to big markets. How are you going to take passengers from all those small towns and feed them into another RJ going to MCO (for example)? It won't work. And what about the people who want to go to LAX, SAN, SFO, SEA, SLC, LAS, PHX, etc?

And after seeing the mess that Independence has gotten themselves into, do you really think anyone would invest in this independent Comair that doesn't feed anyone?
 
The regional jet is an extremely high cost (per seat mile) product.

Unless Comair went out and bought 100+ seat aircraft (and please god let them pay the pilots industry-standard wages for that equipment -- in BOTH seats) there is virtually no chance that the company would be successful stand-alone.
 
Benefit

One benefit I could see for ASA if it were spun off. Managment would have a much larger responsibility to its shareholders than being a puppet to the DCI/DAL bosses. Therefore the pilots and flight attendants might actually have an advatage at the bargaining table.
Who knows.....don't loose sleep over it though........
 
Having been at both airlines I think I would rather work for the folks running SkyWest than the ones running ASA.
 
Dont forget, Jerry Atkin, SKYW CEO, has said Skywest buys assets not airlines. Now what this means is anyones guess. But it could be a bad deal for Union pilots being bought out by a non-union carrier.
 
"But those types of connections only make up a fraction of the traffic. Most of the people coming from those small towns are NOT going to other small towns....they're going to big markets."

Basically I agree with you except I think they are going to larger markets and not exclusively big markets. Not everyone goes to ATL, BOS or NYC. A lot of folks are trying to go from Erie to BNA. STL or MIA. CMR (or fill in your favorite 'regional' here) can get Joe Sixpack from Erie to MIA just fine w/o help from ma Delta and we can make money doing it. Can DAL do the same in a Maddog or 73?

"How are you going to take passengers from all those small towns and feed them into another RJ going to MCO (for example)?"

Easy, we're already doing it. We do it all day everyday to places like NYC, BOS, ATL, BNA, STL, MIA and even to MCO.

"And what about the people who want to go to LAX, SAN, SFO, SEA, SLC, LAS, PHX, etc?"

What has that got to do with establishing an east coast airline? My point is that we already have the equipment and infrastructure to begin successful ops east of the Mississippi right now. I was responding to a comment about CMR/ASA being worthless without DAL feed. I don't agree.
 
Caveman said:
CMR (or fill in your favorite 'regional' here) can get Joe Sixpack from Erie to MIA just fine w/o help from ma Delta and we can make money doing it.
Sure you can make money...just like Independence Air is just raking in the dough.:rolleyes:

I just priced an itinerary ERI-MCO....r/t airfare was $187 bucks (including taxes). You think your RJ can make money flying that? If you take out taxes it's about $150 roundtrip or $75 each way. Total flight distance ERI-CVG-MCO is 1,071 miles for a RASM of .07 cents. Too bad Comair has a CASM of about 12 cents and without the DL umbrella Comair would probably have a CASM closer to 15 cents.

What has that got to do with establishing an east coast airline? My point is that we already have the equipment and infrastructure to begin successful ops east of the Mississippi right now. I was responding to a comment about CMR/ASA being worthless without DAL feed. I don't agree.
First, being just an east coast airline won't work (see Independence Air). Why would any business traveler stay loyal to you when you don't cover half the country? Let's say I have a business trip from ERI to BNA one week...Comair would work fine. But the following week, I have to go ERI-LAX....your airline would be useless. I'd just keep my business with an airline that meets all my needs.

Trust me, if Comair had no airline to feed, Comair would be gone in no time.
 

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