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Pilots will become irrelevant in the US domestic market

  • Thread starter Thread starter Poahi
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As long as there are markets that only support regional jets, there will be regional jets. ML MEC's need to realize you can't negotiate 100 seat airplanes into 50 seat markets and make money. If ML MECs want that flying then they need to integrate all regional ops into their companies.


Spoken like a true IDIOT. The 50 seat jets don't make money they dont make money GET IT???? They are a jet, you need a turboprop. As far getting 100 seaters...DC9-10, Fokker 100 etc were around long before you little boy. We ARE going to get 71+ seaters on the mainline property you little snot too bad. Enjoy your regional lifestyle.
 
Well Trans States Holdings ordered not 10, not 20, but 100 MRJs and with no partners. They obviously see the future with lots of 70-120 seat RJs flying around.


FLying for who, where? The arrogance and STUPIDITY on this board is stifling. It truly is the inexperienced regional board...BARF
 
I would like to see all jets at ML. I'd rather fly an RJ as entry-level equipment to move up from than as the upper-limit of my company.
Would you fly an RJ at ML at regional wages? What about benefits?
 
Stupid

Stupid

Stupid

When will you guys learn. It's the brand of flying which needs to be scoped in-house at mainline, not the equipment. The only solution which will guarantee this doesn't all happen again is scope which keeps every pilot seat within the brand on a single seniority list.

Suck it up in one big merge and reap the benefits of complete control.

Take just the "nice" big regional equipment and you will only fight this battle over and over for the rest of your careers.

Take all the planes and pilots , including the kiddy planes, and you will have yourselves a level of control which will force the payscales and QOL up.

Just keep one single off-the-seniority-list regional flying and you will only be back where you started.

Holy crap...making sense on the reginal forum?? Put the keyboard down and back away.

Well said :beer:
 
The flying will go where it can be done the cheapest. I doubt much will change, except that more flying will be done by regional airlines.
 
Spoken like a true IDIOT. The 50 seat jets don't make money they dont make money GET IT???? They are a jet, you need a turboprop. As far getting 100 seaters...DC9-10, Fokker 100 etc were around long before you little boy. We ARE going to get 71+ seaters on the mainline property you little snot too bad. Enjoy your regional lifestyle.

Nothing's making money. Least of all 100+-seat ML aircraft with 50-70 seats sold. Forcing mgmt to put large aircraft on every route doesn't force pax to by tickets.
 
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Would you fly an RJ at ML at regional wages? What about benefits?

Then you could move up FROM RJs instead of TO RJs within the same company. It's all moot anyway because mgmts and ALPA do not want to remove the wedge from between the regionals and ML.
 
Then you could move up FROM RJs instead of TO RJs within the same company.
Correct.

The point is, if ML ends up flying RJs it is not going to be done in one event. It will take time, in addition, the unions will get slammed not for getting RJs at ML but for not getting $100/hr for junior CAs on day one.


It's all moot anyway because mgmts and ALPA do not want to remove the wedge from between the regionals and ML.
Don't defeat yourself before you've begun to take action......

It is not that ALPA wants the wedge in my opinion. Sure hindsight is clear and ALPA should have done it differently. But outsourcing is the American Way. Pilots who complain on this board about being outsourced will readily take their wages to another industry and patronize outsourcing.

So you really expect a 55,000 member union to stop or change direction of the tsunami of market forces? Now, if the APA, IPA, SAWAP and USAPA and ALPA were on the same team it would be easier. MUCH easier.

Regardless, it is not moot. Fights on. Are you in?
 
Correct.

The point is, if ML ends up flying RJs it is not going to be done in one event. It will take time, in addition, the unions will get slammed not for getting RJs at ML but for not getting $100/hr for junior CAs on day one.


Don't defeat yourself before you've begun to take action......



Two contradictory points here. I like your second much better than your first.

ALPA, or any other airline union or association, wouldn't get slammed by it's members for not getting $100 an hour for CAs on day one. The vast majority of those already at the ML won't care what the starting RJ wages are as long as their own wages grow, or are at the very least not affected by the RJ wages.

I could very well see a scenario where the mainline 'partner' calculates a low, non-negotiable wage scale and benefit package that allows the mainline partner to bring RJs on to the mainline list. Included in this TA will be benefits to the existing seniority list, that while nice, wont destroy the profitability logic of the agreement.

The management of 'today' at the mainline partner will lower the wage costs of that ML for that quarter, and, for the life of the agreement. (Anything possibly negotiated beyond that won't be the current management's problem.) The existing ML seniority group will get a nice little bonus for the agreement.

This scenario will work because the vast majority of college educated FO's and junior Captains at all of the regionals see the regional as a stepping stone to better, if not necessarily bigger, things in the future of their careers. Starting at the intended goal of being on a ML list will override the fact that it will be for lower compensation that what is available at the regional.

Those who would lose the most under this scenario are those who have invested time at the regional level, either in the past or in plans for the future of their careers. It would be ugly to start over at the bottom of the ML list for the senior lifers at the existing regionals. Less pay, vacation, and longevity (all of these things that management would want) for the same work will be the color of this possible new reality.
 
The flying will go where it can be done the cheapest. I doubt much will change, except that more flying will be done by regional airlines.


IF the assumption that the flying can be done cheapest at the regional level is correct, this makes sense.

History has shown this to be the case, but it doesn't necessarily have to be way things shake out in the future.

I agree with what I think you point is here: Market forces are far stronger than the wants of the labor groups.
 
IF the assumption that the flying can be done cheapest at the regional level is correct, this makes sense.

History has shown this to be the case, but it doesn't necessarily have to be way things shake out in the future.

I agree with what I think you point is here: Market forces are far stronger than the wants of the labor groups.

Correct and those forces are toxic to the pay rates and work rules the senior folks (who negotiate scope) don't want compromised. Better to cut off your arm to save yourself. The damage to the rest of the profession is 'collateral damage' and of little concern. This lack of solidarity is the weakness of organized labor and is exploited by management effectively. I'll say it again - you can't rape the willing.
 
Two contradictory points here. I like your second much better than your first.

ALPA, or any other airline union or association, wouldn't get slammed by it's members for not getting $100 an hour for CAs on day one. The vast majority of those already at the ML won't care what the starting RJ wages are as long as their own wages grow, or are at the very least not affected by the RJ wages.
Valid point... It will really create a sub culture at ML. Those who fly the RJs will be like those who flew the TPs at the regionals vs the RJs. Recall how the senior RJ pilots at regionals thought their poop didn't stink. The issue will be unity.

I could very well see a scenario where the mainline 'partner' calculates a low, non-negotiable wage scale and benefit package that allows the mainline partner to bring RJs on to the mainline list. Included in this TA will be benefits to the existing seniority list, that while nice, wont destroy the profitability logic of the agreement.
What benefits would those be... exactly.

The management of 'today' at the mainline partner will lower the wage costs of that ML for that quarter, and, for the life of the agreement. (Anything possibly negotiated beyond that won't be the current management's problem.) The existing ML seniority group will get a nice little bonus for the agreement.
For example.....?

This scenario will work because the vast majority of college educated FO's and junior Captains at all of the regionals see the regional as a stepping stone to better, if not necessarily bigger, things in the future of their careers. Starting at the intended goal of being on a ML list will override the fact that it will be for lower compensation that what is available at the regional.
Actually I think the senior ML guys might be asked to subsidize this scheme in the form of flatten compensation, whereas they are expecting to get some back after all these years of loss. They will fight hard... possibly killing the whole deal.

The reason is the regionals simply do it cheaper and bringing RJs to ML will cost money. If not then it wouldn't be this way now.

The problem with the senior guys it they want thier boats back and they believe they are entitled to those boats. Whereas, the junior guys and furloughed pilots simply want to own a house.

Senior guys want back what they had.
Junior guys want what they themselves never had.

Those who would lose the most under this scenario are those who have invested time at the regional level, either in the past or in plans for the future of their careers. It would be ugly to start over at the bottom of the ML list for the senior lifers at the existing regionals. Less pay, vacation, and longevity (all of these things that management would want) for the same work will be the color of this possible new reality.

The regional lifers will ask for some sort of seniority integration like 3:1 for anyone over 10 years at the regionals. Those with 15+ years will demand 1:1 and get stuck with 3:1. For pilots with 5-10 years at the regionals it would be 5:1 or even higher. Less than 5 years at the regionals = staple.

The furloughed ML pilots will state that all regional pilots = staple.

What about non ALPA regionals?

What about the APA and AMR?
 
Valid point... It will really create a sub culture at ML. Those who fly the RJs will be like those who flew the TPs at the regionals vs the RJs. Recall how the senior RJ pilots at regionals thought their poop didn't stink. The issue will be unity.

What benefits would those be... exactly.

Whatever is necessary to seal the deal. The goal here is to lower labor costs, not make pilots happy. Neither ML management or the Senior, politically powerful half of the ML list care about unity. Ugly, but true.

For example.....?

Again, whatever would make the deal work, while still being more economically efficient for the ML management.

Actually I think the senior ML guys might be asked to subsidize this scheme in the form of flatten compensation, whereas they are expecting to get some back after all these years of loss. They will fight hard... possibly killing the whole deal.

The mainline list, in this possible scenario, wouldn't be asked to subsidize anything. That would be the quickest way to kill this from happening. I see the opposite happening: the mainline guys get an extra percent here, and extra percent there, directly tied to the successful integration of RJs onto the list. The 'subsidy' that would make this happen would come entirely on the side of the smaller airplane wage scale.

The reason is the regionals simply do it cheaper and bringing RJs to ML will cost money. If not then it wouldn't be this way now.

The regionals do simply do it cheaper than the ML 'partners', for now, under the current model. However, in the scenario I'm fearful of happening, there is no reason for the regionals to be cheaper. Just throwing these numbers out there, but $15/hr FO and $35/hr CA pay to start, with no chance of even a COLA for the duration of the agreement, plus no benefits for, say, the first six months, would make mainline operation of RJs very feasible. The rates are horrible, but guys will line up to interview because the 777/whale rates are at the very end of the tunnel.

The problem with the senior guys it they want thier boats back and they believe they are entitled to those boats. Whereas, the junior guys and furloughed pilots simply want to own a house.

Senior guys want back what they had.
Junior guys want what they themselves never had.

I agree with both of these thoughts. This scenario, which absolutely guts the earnings of the bottom of the industry, gives everyone something they want. Most importantly, it gives the management of the ML GO the ability to post positive numbers that, at least for the first ML to go this route, are dramatically better than the rest of the industry.

The regional lifers will ask for some sort of seniority integration like 3:1 for anyone over 10 years at the regionals. Those with 15+ years will demand 1:1 and get stuck with 3:1. For pilots with 5-10 years at the regionals it would be 5:1 or even higher. Less than 5 years at the regionals = staple.

The furloughed ML pilots will state that all regional pilots = staple.

What about non ALPA regionals?

What about the APA and AMR?


There will be no 'staple', because the regional lists won't be brought on to the mainline lists, per se'. No, it will be straight new hiring by the mainline to staff 'new' RJ flying as it becomes available at the end of the existing regional contracts. This would cleanly and completely eradicate any claims on spots of the ML list, other than the very bottom, by the regional guys. Slowly, one by one, the regionals will find themselves without flying, or having to slash wages to below the new quasi- 'B' scales at the ML. The scope clauses of the regionals will be meaningless; also, there will be no integration necessary as it will be strictly new flying on the ML list. It will be in essence worse than a straight staple, with the benefit to management of getting to start everyone at the bottom of the list at a new and 'enhanced' (to management) first year level of pay.
 

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