Pilotless Cockpit?

[ePilot22]

Does anyone ever think that the cockpit may become totally pilotless? If so how many years until that happens?

I read an article once that said while an aircraft may be able to fly (taxi, take-off, fly and land) itself, no human will ever board the back of an aircraft that doesn't have a human in the front. However, I was discussing this with a few other people and one said that it used to be unheard of to get on an elevator or a train without an operator. I did point out that the damage and loss caused by an accident is not as severe in an elevator or train as it would be in the case of a fully automated aircraft. And that elevators and trains work in one and two dimensions, where of course, aircraft work in three. There is also a difference in environment as well as certain factors that cannot be controlled.

Needless to say the one still argued that within the next 25 years we will no longer be needed upfront?

Any thoughts, opinions..........or facts on this idea.

 

[dmrogers]

In my own opinion, I do not see this as a concern in our near future. Burt Rutan offers his opinion about this in several interviews, and I tend to agree with him. Automation is becoming increasingly more common place, as technology solves various safety issues, however this technology will lead to new responsibilities for the pilot, not his extinction.

 

[Bryan D]

There was a segment on Modern Marvels a couple of nights ago about a cockless pilotpit airplanes. They flew an airplane by remote control all the way to Australia and safely landed. Was reported that they can stay aloft 36 hrs without refueling.

 

[FN FAL]

In my own opinion, I do not see this as a concern in our near future. Burt Rutan offers his opinion about this in several interviews, and I tend to agree with him. Automation is becoming increasingly more common place, as technology solves various safety issues, however this technology will lead to new responsibilities for the pilot, not his extinction.

We already see the effects of automation and technology reducing the number of flight crews needed to get the work done.

With jets came speed, more legs can be done in one day than what could be done by a DC-3 or Super Connie.

With automation, we saw flight engineers and navigators go bye-bye.

At the 135 level and Part 91 level, we have autopilots in lieu of a co-pilot, including single pilot jet operations.

I think in 20 years or so, they will have made one pilot airliners a reality.

 

[rvsm410]

I dont see this happening in our lifetime, however I do see a real threat of shutting down aviation due to high fuel costs, accessable only to the utra rich....

 

[ePilot22]

I don't think there will ever be an end to aviation as a form of mass transportation. In fact I think it will only become cheaper and more efficient. We, in the US, will never see aviation like it was in the early years. We are becoming less of pilots and more of "system managers". I did see that the use of high speed trains may cut down the use of aircraft, but the infrastructure for the trains isn't there and is costly and time comsuming to build. Airports on the other hand already exist and are quite numerous. Alternative fuels are something that will need to be reseached for airplanes, but as automobiles begin to use alternatives sources of energy and less petroleum products, more will be available for commercial aircraft use.

From what I heard today, there are 2 billion customers coming "on board". This of course is in the East, but the demand is there and will be there for aviation, but what about us?

 

[ericnod]

Found this job the other day... I think its funny that they require "Commercial pilot's license with instrument rating with a minimum of 300 hours Pilot In Command time", and would like a CFI.

http://www.jobsearch.org/seeker/jobsearch/quick?action=JobSearchViewJob&JobSearch_JobId=22956682&JobSearchType=JobSearch
--------------------------
GA - Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Company Description:
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. is among the leading technology employers in the San Diego area. We offer a challenging and rewarding work environment, competitive salaries, and a comprehensive benefits package which includes the following:

Job Description:
Instrument Rated RPA Pilot (UAV Pilot) TJ611-2651 Pilot a Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) from a ground control station. Responsible for the operation of the vehicle including mission planning. Will also have additional flight related collateral duties. This position requires travel for six to eight months of the year on a two to three month rotation both within and outside the Continental United States. Operations will be conducted at the El Mirage Flight Operations Facility or overseas.

Experience Required:
Commercial pilot's license with instrument rating with a minimum of 300 hours Pilot In Command time. Applicants selected will be subject to a Government security investigation and must meet eligibility requirements for access to classified information. Desirable qualifications: CFI preferred. Prior experience in UAV operation, mission planning and actual control of aircraft is desired.

 

[UnAnswerd]

Computer chips and solid-state devices can fry. The most reliable and safest condition of flight is when a competent pilot is at the controls. While it's true that automation can eliminate dangerous "human factors", the reverse does hold true at all. That is, human factors cannot eliminate dangerous automation failures....certainly not if humans aren't present to do so.

That is why automation is a good thing, but only when a human is in place to oversee its operation, and take immediate charge if and when such systems decide to automatically fail.

Consider this. Fully hydraulic steering is illegal to use on street-driven vehicles. With no mechanical linkage between the driver and the wheels, the system is simple and easy to implement. However, it is considered far too dangerous to ever use. Instead we have a power-steering system to aid the driver, and directional control can still be maintained even if such a system catastrophically fails. That's because the safety of having a mechanical linkage acts as a redundancy. In time the pilot will simply be a redundancy, there to take over when the primary system fails.

 

[ePilot22]

Whata Job!

I think my 12 year old brother would/could fly the UAV better than me. What a waste of a certificate and time! Train a monkey to fly it!

 

[Skyline]

Automation

Automation,

Even now airliners are mostly flown via automation. On a 5.5 hour flight my hands were on the controls for about 6 minutes. A hand flown ILS is almost an emergency procedure. Soon the pilots will be there only as a back up system. I can't understand Burt Rutans view of the future. The way it stands now two pilots are redundant. One half awake pilot can handle most of it. I would like to see ATC instructions come into the plane via an email like system. The plane alerts the crew to an instruction from ATC and makes the changes through the flight computer and all the crew has to do is give a one word verification to the computer to accept the change. Even emergencies could be handled by the computer. It is almost that way now.

Skyline

 

[indianboy7]

Automation,

Even now airliners are mostly flown via automation. On a 5.5 hour flight my hands were on the controls for about 6 minutes. A hand flown ILS is almost an emergency procedure. Soon the pilots will be there only as a back up system. I can't understand Burt Rutans view of the future. The way it stands now two pilots are redundant. One half awake pilot can handle most of it. I would like to see ATC instructions come into the plane via an email like system. The plane alerts the crew to an instruction from ATC and makes the changes through the flight computer and all the crew has to do is give a one word verification to the computer to accept the change. Even emergencies could be handled by the computer. It is almost that way now.

Skyline

"You've Got Mail!!" DOH

 

[LowlyPropCapt]

Automation,

Even now airliners are mostly flown via automation. On a 5.5 hour flight my hands were on the controls for about 6 minutes. A hand flown ILS is almost an emergency procedure. Soon the pilots will be there only as a back up system. I can't understand Burt Rutans view of the future. The way it stands now two pilots are redundant. One half awake pilot can handle most of it. I would like to see ATC instructions come into the plane via an email like system. The plane alerts the crew to an instruction from ATC and makes the changes through the flight computer and all the crew has to do is give a one word verification to the computer to accept the change. Even emergencies could be handled by the computer. It is almost that way now.

Skyline

Don't take this the wrong way but...

If a hand flown ILS is "almost an emergency procedure" for you then you have no business being PIC of any aircraft under IFR, commercial or otherwise. I truly hope that comment was tounge-in-cheek, but judging from the tenor of the rest of your post it was probably not. As far as one half awake pilot being able to handle most of it, that is absolutely rediculous. I have made plenty of "tired" mistakes when all of the automation aboard my aircraft was engaged. Like any computer, it is SISO... Sh*t in, Sh*t out.

As far as a ground instructions being automatically implemented by a controller on the ground, I hope we do not soon see that come to pass. There is not yet any, nor is there planned to my knowledge, any system that will integrate all of the cues and pieces of information that a pilot uses to make decisions. Many of the cues are extremely subjective and based upon the prior experience of the pilot in question. Some cues border on the sub-concious, such as that little voice that serves as your distant early warning of trouble to come or that seat of the pants feel that the aircraft may or may not be flying quite right. No computer will be able to take all this in. Flying is not a purly mathematical exercise and never will be.

Besides, having instructions issued by someone on the ground makes aircraft operations a video game, not an act of self preservation. The old maxim currently holds true: If my ass gets there, so will the passengers'. Do you really want that to go away?

 

[ePilot22]

Some cues border on the sub-concious, such as that little voice that serves as your distant early warning of trouble to come or that seat of the pants feel that the aircraft may or may not be flying quite right. No computer will be able to take all this in. Flying is not a purly mathematical exercise and never will be.

Well said! This is what I think the flying public has the misconceptions about. Computers can have trouble shooting and problem solving programs, but nothing can beat a human mind when it comes to uncommon situations/events.

 

[DwayneWorthless]

What the Hell.... Who will pay their dues... It's all about the $$ money...

 

[SDF2BUF2MCO]

One Person Cockpits Will Be Next

Think before we go to "pilotless" cockpits we'll have one person cockpits will be next. It has been brought up before. Even this month's ATW mag has an article talking about Boeing's (probably Airbus too) effort to go to one person "crews". Get the sequencing down to a science and the ability to deviate the one person cockpit will be the place to catch up on some reading. The mystique is almost gone.

 

[ackattacker]

I would like to see ATC instructions come into the plane via an email like system. The plane alerts the crew to an instruction from ATC and makes the changes through the flight computer and all the crew has to do is give a one word verification to the computer to accept the change. Even emergencies could be handled by the computer. It is almost that way now.

There is such a system in place... jumpseating across the pacific, noticed that 100 mile out the pilots did an HF radio check (for backup purposes only), took of their earpieces, and from then on all communications were through the FMS. Punch in "request FL350" and the FMS comes back with "350 approved, report reaching". Then the FMS automatically sends the report at 350... this system is already in place. I believe it's a satellite link. I've heard a similar system exists for the Atlantic, but I'm not positive.

As for a single-pilot cockpit... we MAY see that in our lifetime. But right now the level of advanced automation required for that is actually much more expensive than paying another pilot. The military is going with unmanned aerial vehicles, but they have much different reasoning than civilian flights. An unmanned military plane can be build cheaper, since it's not carrying live humans and therefore doesn't need as much redundancy. An unmanned or "one-manned" airliner needs more redundancy, not less.

But the technology certainly does exist. A little birdy told me that a B-2 (for example) can be brought down without crew intervention. The technology is expensive, but worth it to save a two billion dollar aircraft. If you put that technology on a Boeing, I suppose it would be safe to fly it single-pilot.

 

[KigAir]

I wounder how a computer would have handled the JetBlue flight at LAX?

 

[Skyline]

Lowlypropcapt

Lowlypropcapt,

I don't know where you have been lately, but these wonder kids who start with a regional with only a few hundred hours mostly can't fly basic attitude instrument. I worked for a few airlines and the younger ones were great at the automation but take away the flight directer and you were a few minutes away from crashing. This current generation is bypassing all of the jobs where they would have gotten a baseline of hardball instrument skills. Management doesnt care. They want you using the automation, in fact it was required at one of the companies I worked for. I went to a group interview a few years back where 10 of us worked our way through three simulators. These guys were all regional captains on dash 8's and RJ's and by the end only three of us passed. Most of the rest crashed. I was in the sim with a dash 8 captain and an RJ guy. The RJ guy was totally lost and crashed a few miles short of the runway on a simple ILS. And that is why I say that even today hand flying an ILS is an emergency procedure at most airlines.

Skyline

 

[LowlyPropCapt]

Lowlypropcapt,

I don't know where you have been lately, but these wonder kids who start with a regional with only a few hundred hours mostly can't fly basic attitude instrument. I worked for a few airlines and the younger ones were great at the automation but take away the flight directer and you were a few minutes away from crashing. This current generation is bypassing all of the jobs where they would have gotten a baseline of hardball instrument skills. Management doesnt care. They want you using the automation, in fact it was required at one of the companies I worked for. I went to a group interview a few years back where 10 of us worked our way through three simulators. These guys were all regional captains on dash 8's and RJ's and by the end only three of us passed. Most of the rest crashed. I was in the sim with a dash 8 captain and an RJ guy. The RJ guy was totally lost and crashed a few miles short of the runway on a simple ILS. And that is why I say that even today hand flying an ILS is an emergency procedure at most airlines.

Skyline

We agree on one thing... The instrument skills of the folks in the entry level regional jobs is, by and large, atrocious. I will say however that many of the UND, Perdue and Riddle "Wunderkinder" that I have flown with have caught on rather fast, but it is a very steep learning curve. In the interest if full disclosure, I too am one of them, being an ERAU grad. However, If the what I am seeing on the line is any judge at all there are some serious omissions in all of the collegiate flight programs. I feel I was better prepared, although I did a couple thousand hours of instructing and other flying before anyone let me near an airliner. Even then, it ate my lunch for a while.

I guess I am old fashioned, but the death of basic stick and rudder skills, along with good old common sense is going to get someone killed. Unfortunately I think it will be sooner rather than later. I hope I am wrong.

 

[Gobi Gred]

I think it will still be awhile before we see single pilot crews on airliners. I'll start thinking it's closer to reality when I can take a nap, read etc. with a fed in the jumpseat while the other guy flies. I remember being told in college 10 years ago that NDBs would be completely gone soon and that VORs would be gone by the turn of the century. Funny, I just did an approach last week that (gasp) said ADF required. As for pilotless airliners, I don't see it happening in my lifetime. Somebody has to be there to pull and reset breakers when the computer locks up.

 

[Skyline]

LowlyPropCapt

LowlyPropCapt,

Well with all glass cockpits and minimal footprint training at the bigger airlines most of that stuff wont matter. If you loose all electrical and something happens that is outside of the checklists and manual then you are probably considered an expendable loss anyway. Try going to an interview prep company and flying a sim without moving map, GPS or a flight director and you might be in for a surprise. Hardball skills dull fast even with guys who fly IFR everyday in a modern automated cockpit.

The only serious emissions I think are the lack of single pilot IFR experience in a serious weather environment. My peers and I had to suffer years in piston twins over the cascades without most of the radios operating and few icing defences. I believe it takes a few years of that to truly become one with hardball attitude instrument flying. Automation creates a false sense of security. I don't know who you fly for but even in training a true steam gauge approach is rarely done anymore. All of the focus is on maximum utilization of the automation.

Skyline

 

[QueensPilot]

I read, about a year ago, (and this was in an article in either Plane and Pilot, or Private Pilot), an article where the author stated that it was rumored that Boeing was working on a single-pilot airliner as a successor to the 7E7. The author also stated that, interestingly enough, an Airbus spokeswoman had gone on the record and said that there would always be 2 pilots on their airplanes.

 

[ePilot22]

Goodbye NDB!

I remember being told in college 10 years ago that NDBs would be completely gone soon and that VORs would be gone by the turn of the century.

The last Jepp IAP revision I did, most were NDB approaches that were eliminated. FNL HAD a NDB Rwy 33 that is no longer. That's where I learned to fly with an ADF. APA is the only airport in range (less than X-counrty distance) where I can still go to shoot NDB appraoches. The real problem is that our rental aircraft have inop. ADFs and they won't be fixed anytime soon.

I was talking to an old pilot, he remembers when radio range was the standard for navigation and the NDB was cutting edge. He flew a Cirrus SR-22 the other day and was speechless about the glass panel.

The day will come when I sit at a flight school/club and tell some young kid about glass panels being cutting edge. He'll laugh and think I'm old.

I like the NDB!!!

 

[Traderd]

Does anyone ever think that the cockpit may become totally pilotless? If so how many years until that happens?

Any thoughts, opinions..........or facts on this idea.

I posted this link somewhere else. Lots of interesting ideas from some very bright individuals.

http://www.northropgrumman.com/unmanned/

If, or when it happens, my guess is the military will lead the way with cargo first, then reduced crews for pax then total uav pax. Followed in short order by civilian cargo then reduced crew and then maybe uav with pax.

The wild card in the speed of deployment might lie in markets other than here in the US. Japan first maybe?

 

[KigAir]

If, or when it happens, my guess is the military will lead the way with cargo first, then reduced crews for pax then total uav pax.

Does the military still use navigators?

 

[Singlecoil]

Once and for all: no one is going to get on an airplane with no pilots, and transport category aircraft will never be certified single pilot because of kidney stones and other physical ailments which can arise suddenly and completely debilitate the lone pilot. Never going to happen.

 

[Skyline]

Never Say Never

10 years ago I am sure that UAV's were considered James Bond nonsence. Now the Airforce is considering replacing half of their fighters with the latest one from Boeing.

I think we will have people up front for a while yet but perhaps they will just sit there and monitor systems throughout the entire flight and never touch the controls. We are mostly there now. We have the technology to remove the middlemen. ATC could send instructions direct to the plane. Taxing could be handled from the tower. No more pilot induced confusion. Pilots will only be taught the basics of aircraft systems and will have only a limited range of pilot training. Perhaps they could be mechanics or something.

Skyline

 

[Skyline]

Never Say Never

10 years ago I am sure that UAV's were considered James Bond nonsense. Now the Air force is considering replacing half of their fighters with the latest one from Boeing.

I think we will have people up front for a while yet but perhaps they will just sit there and monitor systems throughout the entire flight and never touch the controls. We are mostly there now. We have the technology to remove the middlemen. ATC could send instructions direct to the plane. Taxing could be handled from the tower. No more pilot induced confusion. Pilots will only be taught the basics of aircraft systems and will have only a limited range of pilot training. Perhaps they could be mechanics or something.

Skyline

 

[FN FAL]

Once and for all: no one is going to get on an airplane with no pilots, and transport category aircraft will never be certified single pilot because of kidney stones and other physical ailments which can arise suddenly and completely debilitate the lone pilot. Never going to happen.

The debilitativeness of the pilot will not hinder the flight. As soon as the pilot's telemetry indicates that he/she is unable to oversee the the automated system, the automated system will just make calls to itself:

"Speed 160, flaps 10!"

"It's in there dude!"

"Hal, don't call me dude!"

"O.K. dude."

"Speed 140, flaps 20, heading 130, Approach Arm!"

"Dude, it's done!"

"I told you to quit calling me "dude"!"

 

[pilotmiketx]

Anyone who's ever flown a highly automated airplane can attest to the fact that two pilots are needed. One needs to make sure "it" doesn't do anything goofy while the other one is troubleshooting the last time it did something goofy. The way I see it, every new software revision is job security.

As for the airlines, two pilots increases the odds that one will be sober.