Pilot shortage?????

[atpcliff]

Just saw an A-320 job open at $18K/month.

That is the highest that the pay has been for that captain slot. It was about $12k/month 4 years ago or so, then rose to 12K, then 14K, and has pretty consistently been $16K/month for the past 18 months or so.

And, those jobs all used to require a type rating on the A-318/-319/-320/-321...just saw a job listed WITHOUT an airbus type rating being required....the worldwide hiring boom is here.

cliff
RMS

 

[waveflyer]

I'm quite familiar with the process at all the jobs I apply to. Trust me, though you seem to think otherwise, in not taking the lazy approach.

Don't mean to come across that way- apologies-
It's the crap end of age 65& the economy right now- keep your head up- won't last forever

 

[Dumb Pilot]

And, those jobs all used to require a type rating on the A-318/-319/-320/-321...just saw a job listed WITHOUT an airbus type rating being required....the worldwide hiring boom is here.

cliff
RMS

A 767 captain I know got a job as DEC on an A330 at JetStar, no previous airbus experience although tons of heavy wide body time, several DEC also at carriers in the middle east going to the bus from Boeing, interesting times for sure on the international arena.

 

[pilotyip]

Just saw an A-320 job open at $18K/month.

That is the highest that the pay has been for that captain slot. It was about $12k/month 4 years ago or so, then rose to 12K, then 14K, and has pretty consistently been $16K/month for the past 18 months or so.

And, those jobs all used to require a type rating on the A-318/-319/-320/-321...just saw a job listed WITHOUT an airbus type rating being required....the worldwide hiring boom is here.

cliff
RMS

the hiring boom coming to a country near you soon.

 

[Alltheway]

Yes its good to see that hiring is coming and some with out type...however for all of us that fly props or rj's then there is nothing for you. I really cant imagine that there will be a mass exodus form any major here for some over seas gig. For whatever reason, family, schedule, quilty of life is more or less established already, so why would a wide body captain in the US decide to make the jump? With out time on type, you got nothing....

 

[Dumb Pilot]

. I really cant imagine that there will be a mass exodus form any major here for some over seas gig. For whatever reason, family, schedule, quilty of life is more or less established already, so why would a wide body captain in the US decide to make the jump? With out time on type, you got nothing....

I don't think that you will see a mass exodus either, but the amount of people that are attending job fairs where international airlines appear is growing, you just had to see how many people from AA attended the last one. About time on type, that is really not the case at many opportunities out there anymore. There are more DEC positions available right now to folks without type rating or time on type that there have ever been, and more opening up every day, granted they are available to experienced pilots.

 

[atpcliff]

Yesterday I saw a small airbus capt job at $18K per month.

Those jobs used to have one option: Live in China. Now they are VERY flexible, and in fact at least one Chinese contract agency offers bases in North America. This $20K per month job gives you a number of commuting options, if you don't want to live in China: 3 weeks On/1 Off....6 weeks On/3 Off....15 days on/15 days off. Many of the jobs I have seen advertise that they will work a schedule out with you.

They pay and flexibility are increasing because the pilot shortage is getting worse and worse, worldwide.

cliff
HHN

 

[atpcliff]

however for all of us that fly props or rj's then there is nothing for you.

China hires LOTs of CRJ and ERJ captains, both for the 50 seaters and the -170/-195 family. There are Q400 jobs in a lot of places, and ATR jobs in Thailand, India, and other places. All of the ones I have seen are for captains, USUALLY with time on type....but I have seen turboprop jobs with just turboprop PIC needed....NOT time on type.

China Pay: CRJ/ERJ/737 $12K/month. -170/-195 family $14K up to $16K per month. That is what I have seen lately.

I have also seen ATR FO jobs in Vietnam....as well as ATR Capt and RJ capt jobs there, too. Talked to a former ASA guy who said all the guys he knows flying for Air Mekong are liking it a lot.

cliff
HHN

 

[HA25]

China hires LOTs of CRJ and ERJ captains, both for the 50 seaters and the -170/-195 family. There are Q400 jobs in a lot of places, and ATR jobs in Thailand, India, and other places. All of the ones I have seen are for captains, USUALLY with time on type....but I have seen turboprop jobs with just turboprop PIC needed....NOT time on type.

China Pay: CRJ/ERJ/737 $12K/month. -170/-195 family $14K up to $16K per month. That is what I have seen lately.

I have also seen ATR FO jobs in Vietnam....as well as ATR Capt and RJ capt jobs there, too. Talked to a former ASA guy who said all the guys he knows flying for Air Mekong are liking it a lot.

cliff
HHN

when they quit wanting 6 and 12 months currently, and will type rate you, that's when I'll accept there is a world wide shortage of pilots... (out side of the US)

 

[xkuzme1]

This whole thread is forgetting the one major historical, and factual law of the airlines... "shrink to profitability".

The airlines will use a pilot shortage to reduce the amount of flight, therefore driving up the cost per seat mile.

 

[Jetjockey]

This whole thread is forgetting the one major historical, and factual law of the airlines... "shrink to profitability".

The airlines will use a pilot shortage to reduce the amount of flight, therefore driving up the cost per seat mile.

That's a cost control measure used by weak management. It does not address the fact that worldwide demand for air travel is up, and pilot demand follows. I agree with the above posters, demand for pilots worldwide is on the up. The question is are you qualified and willing to move overseas for a job?

 

[vetrider]

If he has the seniority to hold the 777 as a captain on the line, I seriously doubt he will be behind 'some AWA 320 guy.'

 

[HA25]

If he has the seniority to hold the 777 as a captain on the line, I seriously doubt he will be behind 'some AWA 320 guy.'

you might doubt what you like, but if a Bankrupt AMR sells American to AWA/USAir, why would you expect any different treatment than when AMR bought TWA? APA is not going to get any better treatment from USALPA than it gave to ALPA back on 2000...

Get some perspective and you'll see the danger is VERY real.

 

[vetrider]

you might doubt what you like, but if a Bankrupt AMR sells American to AWA/USAir, why would you expect any different treatment than when AMR bought TWA? APA is not going to get any better treatment from USALPA than it gave to ALPA back on 2000...

Get some perspective and you'll see the danger is VERY real.

Here's my perspective. I'm a former AWA pilot. Have you heard of the 517 east pilots that Nicolau put at the top of the list before he got to the first AWA 320 guy? Do you know why that was? Now every merger is different, but the AA pilots are in a much better position now than former east pilots ever were. Some 'AWA 320 guy' ahead of an AA 777 captain? I doubt anyone expects that in any case.

 

[atpcliff]

Yesterday got email: ERJ-145/-190 capts wanted in China. $15K/month, a variety of schedules to choose from, after one year opportunity to upgrade to A-320.

cliff
HHN

 

[scubabri]

yay! hope and change!

 

[Penguin46]

Heyas,

I still have friends in the flight training business (really? I have friends?), and this is what they say:

Domestic student starts are way, way down. Those on a "career track" at non-career schools (ERAU, UND, FSI, etc) are practically non-existant. There is still a trickle of activity of folks doing their PPL, or IR, and some fairly good activity if you are a "botique" instructor that does type specific training, such as Cirrus or Beech initial or recurrent.

Despite that, finding CFIs is darn near impossible. This is the way it was explained to me:

Look at the hiring window from 1995-2001, and the one prior to that (1986-1989). LOTS of people being hired by LOTS of operators, with LOTS of turnover. Multiple majors would often pump 100/mo through their training pipelines.

Regionals/commuters, overall, were smaller, and you would think, less able to handle the turnover because the relative percentage of people leaving was high.

Despite this, the regionals/commuters still found all the people they needed with ESSENTIALLY ATP mins. Sure, it may have dipped at bit during peak months, but anything below 1000/100 was pretty darn rare, and 1500 and 200 was the typical norm, with the mature regionals getting much higher mins.

Still plenty of people lining up to do the dirty work for crap money. People either came out of the military, or followed the standard civilian career track in which a CFI was a part of.

Fast forward to 2006-08. Slight recovery, majors start to hire again, but numbers of outfits hiring and the overall numbes were MUCH lower than the previous booms. Regionals were much larger, and in threory, should have been better able to cope, because the overall percentage of turnover was far lower.

Yet despite this, regionals had to lower their minimums to wet commercial ticket levels to fill a comparatively lower number of seats...even at VERY mature outfits with decent (relatively) pay and work rules.

Another aspect of this was a far greater percentage of pilots skipped the CFI route. Why bother if you were going to drop right into the right seat of a Barbie Jet at 300 hours? Thus the complete lack of CFIs these days.

Why?

1) Kids are smart. The media and high school today have conditioned kids to go for the maximum result for minimum effort, and they can read teh intrawebz. They realize the risk/return for this career sucks unless you get really lucky.

2) Information is everywhere. You no longer have to subscribe to FAPA or AIR INC to get the information on what's what, and the information is no longer "sole source" or word of mouth, so you get a MUCH wider range of real world conditions.

3) It's really expensive. In 1990 dollars, you could go zero to hero for about $15k, all in, including room and board. If you apply inflation to that, it should run you about $25k today, but in reality, it's probably closer to $35-$40k, assuming you don't get scammed out of your money along the way.

4) Because kids these days need to see instant gratification, the 1,500 hour rule will probably deter a percentage of the every shrinking pool who do decide blow their hard earned cash. VERY, VERY few kids these days do anything for the "love of it"...everything has a price tag attached.

So here we are: No CFIs, Expensive airplanes, a change in flight/time duty time rules, the 1,500 hour rule.

But my prediction is that there will STILL be no pilot shortage, but there will remain, as always, a shortage of pilots willing to work for crap wages at the regionals or anywhere else.

If the regionals were to offer major like compensation packages, the "shortage" would solve itself, because there are a LOT of pilots sidelined because the job is no longer worth doing. But pay the going rate, and watch those classes fill up.

Cancelling flights because of lack of crews when you are paying them FAR BELOW market wages DOES NOT COUNT as a shortage, just a bad business plan.

When major airlines, who are paying their crews somewhat appropriate compensation (I said somewhat, not optimum), start cancelling flights because their classes go unfilled, then yea, that's a shortage.

But you won't see that.

Nu

Interesting post -
If there is a shortage - the pay will increase to a point (and only to that point) it attracks applicants. Simply a supply and demand equation.