Pilot shortage Myth. 7000 apps for 600 slots at DL

[TheDogsBollocks]

Seeing's believing with the so called pilot shortage. There are a latent number of qualified regional captains who will take up the slack for the mainline retirements. It's the bottom of the aviation career ladder that's going to hurt. The regional's pay sucks, I earn a better salary than a 5 year CRJ Captain at SkyWest teaching people to fly a UAV! Like Chesley Sullenberg said, I don't know of an airpline pilot today who would want his kids to follow in their footsteps.

 

[jonjuan]

I can't think of a major that would not be on my list except maybe for Southwest, where I think advancement might be very slow for a while, although the QOL and pay might make up for the slower movement, don't know.

Keep in mind that at sw, much of the QOL and pay have to do with growth and being understaffed(I.e., little time on reserve and lots of premium time).

 

[livin'thesim]

Seeing's believing with the so called pilot shortage. There are a latent number of qualified regional captains who will take up the slack for the mainline retirements. It's the bottom of the aviation career ladder that's going to hurt. The regional's pay sucks, I earn a better salary than a 5 year CRJ Captain at SkyWest teaching people to fly a UAV! Like Chesley Sullenberg said, I don't know of an airpline pilot today who would want his kids to follow in their footsteps.

Absolutely. As I have said before, at the majors, the only effect of the "shortage" will be that they might lower the competitive minimums or not require a four year degree, or something.

 

[ackattacker]

Obviously the shortage is real... if you define shortage as more worldwide demand for airline pilots than there is availability of qualified pilots.

It should also be obvious that the shortage has not hit the US legacies and majors... yet. It will have to get pretty bad for, say, Delta or FedEx or Southwest to run out of qualified applicants. I would think, that before you got to that point, there would be a pretty catastrophic rearranging to the entire airline industry. More than 50% of the flying in the US is done by "regional" airlines. If the regionals start feeling the pinch badly enough than the legacies may start having to start covering some of that flying with mainline... or at least start paying their regional pilots salaries commensurate with the majors. In the end there is a certain demand for available seat miles, and a certain number of pilots available and in pipeline. When the two don't match up the only solutions are a) cut back capacity, b) increase the number of pilots in the pipeline, or c) operate larger aircraft so the passenger to pilot ratio increases.

a) is not likely... too much money to be made from each passenger
b) is the the long term solution, but airlines are notoriously short-sighted and the ramp-up needed to be 4 years ago.
c) is where this industry is headed right at the moment in the US... small RJ's replaced with large RJ's, large RJ's replaced with mainline. A319's replaced with A321's etc. Fuel cost is driving the industry in this direction as well.

 

[General Lee]

Ackattacker,

DL will be receiving 88 717s and will park 215 50 seaters. I believe you will see fewer flights to smaller cities, but on smaller mainline planes, like 717s and A319s. Instead of 8 daily CRJs, you'll see 3 717s. Problem solved. There will be some 50 seaters flying, but only to really small cities like Valdosta. There may be some 70/76 seaters flying longer stage thin routes too. But, in 2 years DL will have 145 total fewer RJs (215 50 seaters gone, 70 76 seaters added).


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[ArcadiaMaxima]

Heard 5000 of the 7000 guys applied to SWA also. isn't there a decision board soon?

 

[atpcliff]

China is buying 5600 new airplanes. That is more than the entire current US fleet.

 

[jonjuan]

China is buying 5600 new airplanes. That is more than the entire current US fleet.

China is also building multiple mega cities with nothing but encumbered growth.

 

[waveflyer]

Heard 5000 of the 7000 guys applied to SWA also. isn't there a decision board soon?

Some October interviewees got calls today

 

[livin'thesim]

The only reason China would be buying 5600 airplanes is to get something out of the billions of dollars we owe them. Then, they will lease them to everyone else at exorbitant rates.

There is no way in he|| China is prepared to deploy that many aircraft that fast.

See above comment about the giant ghost cities in China.