Pilot shortage Myth. 7000 apps for 600 slots at DL

[drinksonme]

Deleted..........

 

[drinksonme]

a guy a few classes behind me at UAL left an EK captain A380 position to be an FO on the 737 in EWR. He said it was a no-brainer. That says a lot about EK and living in a sand box full of crazies.

Or a lot about that guys judgement. I have a buddy who is in Saudi Arabia, and while not bikinis and Mai Tai's.....he will be retired, as in fully done working for life, in 10 years.........at 55. Married w/ 2 kids college tuition paid, 10 acre property in northern AZ with 2300 sq ft house paid in full, and for fun... He just paid off his parents home loan as a anniversary gift. So not sure about this guy and his situation, but people like my friend think we are suckers in the USA. I hate Burqa's, love 6 inch stiletto's, alcohol, and the NFL. That's why I stay, maybe my judgement is off, or this guy feels the same. Sorry to judge initially.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

So does that mean that the guys that gave up their seniority and remained working abroad is indicative and say a lot about the US airline industry? Or it say that to each it's own...!

 

[Dan Roman]

There are always pilots that think what they are doing is what everyone should be too. My take is that it varies on an individual basis. A career full of overseas living and seeing the world is certainly more interesting than one spent flying a 737 out of EWR. That said, it's not everyone's cup of tea and nothing wrong with that. Family considerations are most important, more important than the obviously greater earning capacity of flying for many of the overseas jobs.
Bottom line is, you gotta do what you want and not what someone else thinks you should.

 

[Dan Roman]

Or a lot about that guys judgement. I have a buddy who is in Saudi Arabia, and while not bikinis and Mai Tai's.....he will be retired, as in fully done working for life, in 10 years.........at 55. Married w/ 2 kids college tuition paid, 10 acre property in northern AZ with 2300 sq ft house paid in full, and for fun... He just paid off his parents home loan as a anniversary gift. So not sure about this guy and his situation, but people like my friend think we are suckers in the USA. I hate Burqa's, love 6 inch stiletto's, alcohol, and the NFL. That's why I stay, maybe my judgement is off, or this guy feels the same. Sorry to judge initially.

Spot on take that the guy going back to UAL defines him more than the overseas flying. Your buddy from Saudi certainly hit a home run, not very many Legacy pilots will retire as well.

 

[JadedViking]

Or a lot about that guys judgement. I have a buddy who is in Saudi Arabia, and while not bikinis and Mai Tai's.....he will be retired, as in fully done working for life, in 10 years.........at 55. Married w/ 2 kids college tuition paid, 10 acre property in northern AZ with 2300 sq ft house paid in full, and for fun... He just paid off his parents home loan as a anniversary gift. So not sure about this guy and his situation, but people like my friend think we are suckers in the USA. I hate Burqa's, love 6 inch stiletto's, alcohol, and the NFL. That's why I stay, maybe my judgement is off, or this guy feels the same. Sorry to judge initially.

That does sound nice. Having paid off everything and retiring early. To each his own. My thinking, and probably the guy that happily left an EK captain A380 job, was that your life and career "is not about the destination" (you know the rest...). Nothing wrong at all with doing it in the desert, but if I wanted a job purely for the money and do anything mentally to get it, I would NOT be flying, and I would also probably be still in the states working and getting paid (and still not enjoying my job). I'd never ever want to spend my "youth" and career over in the desert. Some nice European cities, probably yes, ....the desert noooooo way. Just MHO.

 

[bafanguy]

Prove it....

FWIW, I guess to prove it, you'd have to find someone with access to the flt ops section of the DLNET who'd show you. The 7000 number can be found there in a recent hiring update. And to be correct, they said it's "over" 7000.

I'm afraid I can't be of much more help than that.

 

[Redtailer]

4 year degree, ATP, 3000TT/1500 TPIC, ex-mil, squeaky clean record, no call from Skywest or any other regional. I call shenanigans.

Either there is something in your record you are not aware of or they think you are overqualified. What that kind of experience you should be going to the majors, not a regional. So they probably think you are only going to come in for a few months and then leave.

 

[waveflyer]

Either there is something in your record you are not aware of or they think you are overqualified. What that kind of experience you should be going to the majors, not a regional. So they probably think you are only going to come in for a few months and then leave.

This^^^ most probably

Or the d^uchebag factor is high...

 

[livin'thesim]

Someone upthread brought up a great point:

How many of those apps each airline has are overlapping. If I was a regional pilot right now, I would be applying for most of the legacy carriers, and several of the nationals.

I can't think of a major that would not be on my list except maybe for Southwest, where I think advancement might be very slow for a while, although the QOL and pay might make up for the slower movement, don't know.

I'll bet (pure guess) that at least 5000 of the 7000 mentioned in the original post are applying at every legacy.

 

[TheDogsBollocks]

Seeing's believing with the so called pilot shortage. There are a latent number of qualified regional captains who will take up the slack for the mainline retirements. It's the bottom of the aviation career ladder that's going to hurt. The regional's pay sucks, I earn a better salary than a 5 year CRJ Captain at SkyWest teaching people to fly a UAV! Like Chesley Sullenberg said, I don't know of an airpline pilot today who would want his kids to follow in their footsteps.

 

[jonjuan]

I can't think of a major that would not be on my list except maybe for Southwest, where I think advancement might be very slow for a while, although the QOL and pay might make up for the slower movement, don't know.

Keep in mind that at sw, much of the QOL and pay have to do with growth and being understaffed(I.e., little time on reserve and lots of premium time).

 

[livin'thesim]

Seeing's believing with the so called pilot shortage. There are a latent number of qualified regional captains who will take up the slack for the mainline retirements. It's the bottom of the aviation career ladder that's going to hurt. The regional's pay sucks, I earn a better salary than a 5 year CRJ Captain at SkyWest teaching people to fly a UAV! Like Chesley Sullenberg said, I don't know of an airpline pilot today who would want his kids to follow in their footsteps.

Absolutely. As I have said before, at the majors, the only effect of the "shortage" will be that they might lower the competitive minimums or not require a four year degree, or something.

 

[ackattacker]

Obviously the shortage is real... if you define shortage as more worldwide demand for airline pilots than there is availability of qualified pilots.

It should also be obvious that the shortage has not hit the US legacies and majors... yet. It will have to get pretty bad for, say, Delta or FedEx or Southwest to run out of qualified applicants. I would think, that before you got to that point, there would be a pretty catastrophic rearranging to the entire airline industry. More than 50% of the flying in the US is done by "regional" airlines. If the regionals start feeling the pinch badly enough than the legacies may start having to start covering some of that flying with mainline... or at least start paying their regional pilots salaries commensurate with the majors. In the end there is a certain demand for available seat miles, and a certain number of pilots available and in pipeline. When the two don't match up the only solutions are a) cut back capacity, b) increase the number of pilots in the pipeline, or c) operate larger aircraft so the passenger to pilot ratio increases.

a) is not likely... too much money to be made from each passenger
b) is the the long term solution, but airlines are notoriously short-sighted and the ramp-up needed to be 4 years ago.
c) is where this industry is headed right at the moment in the US... small RJ's replaced with large RJ's, large RJ's replaced with mainline. A319's replaced with A321's etc. Fuel cost is driving the industry in this direction as well.

 

[General Lee]

Ackattacker,

DL will be receiving 88 717s and will park 215 50 seaters. I believe you will see fewer flights to smaller cities, but on smaller mainline planes, like 717s and A319s. Instead of 8 daily CRJs, you'll see 3 717s. Problem solved. There will be some 50 seaters flying, but only to really small cities like Valdosta. There may be some 70/76 seaters flying longer stage thin routes too. But, in 2 years DL will have 145 total fewer RJs (215 50 seaters gone, 70 76 seaters added).


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[ArcadiaMaxima]

Heard 5000 of the 7000 guys applied to SWA also. isn't there a decision board soon?

 

[atpcliff]

China is buying 5600 new airplanes. That is more than the entire current US fleet.

 

[jonjuan]

China is buying 5600 new airplanes. That is more than the entire current US fleet.

China is also building multiple mega cities with nothing but encumbered growth.

 

[waveflyer]

Heard 5000 of the 7000 guys applied to SWA also. isn't there a decision board soon?

Some October interviewees got calls today

 

[livin'thesim]

The only reason China would be buying 5600 airplanes is to get something out of the billions of dollars we owe them. Then, they will lease them to everyone else at exorbitant rates.

There is no way in he|| China is prepared to deploy that many aircraft that fast.

See above comment about the giant ghost cities in China.

 

[atpcliff]

By 2015, China will have completed 80 new airports, and expanded 100 others. By 2032, they will have more people flying than the US does now, and will spend $800B to buy the above-mentioned aircraft.

Just read that India has 2% of it's population flying, and they are expecting tremendous aviation growth. In the next few decades India's population will surpass China's.

 

[ArcadiaMaxima]

china also has mega cities built with nobody living in them. Airports can end up the same way.

 

[atpcliff]

The airports WILL be empty, if they can't get the pilots to f!y the planes!!!

 

[kommutrdog]

China has a much longer time horizon than us "impatient" Westerners. But, you won't catch me flying over there. No, thank you.

 

[sniper]

China is buying 5600 new airplanes. That is more than the entire current US fleet.

Friend of mine went to fly there and 2 years later he had health issues and spend most of his savings in order to get his health back on medical bills.


so there you have it Expats,,,,,,

Go make more cash and lose your health


no thanks

 

[Dumb Pilot]

My BMI is a lot lower than when I was in the rat race in the US, so is my cholesterol, uric acid, I am healthier now than I was when I was in college...! The food that you are exposed too while flying on the US is as unhealthy as it gets.....!

 

[SIG600]

china also has mega cities built with nobody living in them. Airports can end up the same way.

China? Heck, Spain has brand new airports sitting empty. But ya I agree with you.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

If the growth is unsustainable in the ME, and the Asian middle class explosion is a "bubble"
Then what's with all the bitching.....!

 

[sat74]

I wonder how many of the ones who bash expat jobs and living abroad have ever stepped outside of their comfort zone in the USA. And I dont mean a quick trip to Paris wearing your baggy jeans, white sneakers, and USA logo t-shirt while bitching about there being no Applebees or Hooters to go to!

 

[Dumb Pilot]

while bitching about there being no Applebees or Hooters to go to!

LOL.....! They need to keep eating something healthy..!