On demand predictions

[woog315]

FORD sales up 33% Dec
Honda up 24%
Nissan Up 18%
Volswagen Up 16%
Hyundia UP 40%
Kia UP 44%


GM DOWN 6%
Chrysler down 4%

Bodes well for YIP's prediction......I think of the ones who reported only 2 are RUN by the government......Hmmmmm wonder why the others are up? Could it be folks are smarter than this administration give them credit for???

I have no idea where you got most of your numbers from, but you're in the ballpark of Dec sales vs Nov sales, and Dec sales are always booming (Christmas) compared to Nov. It was a terrible year overall, with little improvement in year-over -year numbers. Full year sales were down 15-30% across the board from 2008 (with the exception of Subaru and Kia). Hopefully things will improve, or its going to be another slow first half I think... more like 2008 than 2009

Regardless, even if sales improve to the most optimistic forecast, "Booming" is still a ridiculous term to use as sales are near depression levels.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Big-c...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

2007 was considered a "terrible" year at the time, and they sold over 16million, which was a decrease from 2006.

http://www.jsonline.com/business/29420019.html

We could stay busy though because so many planes have been parked, and our industry has shrunk along with theirs.

 

[pilotyip]

West Coast Container Traffic Gained in November
Container traffic moving through West Coast ports increased 3 percent in November compared to November 2008, marking the first monthly year-over-year increase in 2009.


U.S. Shipments Grow for First Time Since 2007
A closely watched measure of U.S. domestic shipping grew on a year-over-year basis for the first time in two years in December, inching upward 1.9 percent.



The good times are coming

 

[rigger]

I have no idea where you got most of your numbers from, but you're in the ballpark of Dec sales vs Nov sales, and Dec sales are always booming (Christmas) compared to Nov. It was a terrible year overall, with little improvement in year-over -year numbers. Full year sales were down 15-30% across the board from 2008 (with the exception of Subaru and Kia). Hopefully things will improve, or its going to be another slow first half I think... more like 2008 than 2009

Regardless, even if sales improve to the most optimistic forecast, "Booming" is still a ridiculous term to use as sales are near depression levels.


Numbers were posted yesterday, (Market numbers yesterday was reporting day for Auto) True they are only Nov/Dec numbers but as a comparison it was telling as too the industry as a whole and the units delivered by the companies that delivered them.... are they out of the woods NO but this is still a good indicator. I agree 1st 1/2 is very slow and if there is not any "real" job creation these numbers will contract even more than 2008 numbers. I am still waiting for the commercial paper to begin hitting the banks balance sheets and for the monitizing of our debt to create real inflation....this in itself will put an even bigger damper on credit that will impact the auto industry (along with Aviation and others)

But what the heck do I know....I don't even get to sleep in any Holiday inn Express anymore!!!

 

[RedGuy]

I think we may see things be "steady" through 2010, one reason being an articale I saw in the Wallstreet Journal about GM going to 3rd shifts in Fort Wayne, Kansas City, and Lansing.

 

[rigger]

I think we may see things be "steady" through 2010, one reason being an articale I saw in the Wallstreet Journal about GM going to 3rd shifts in Fort Wayne, Kansas City, and Lansing.

Ya I saw that article, they failed to mention that this is the time that the line gets repaired and re stocked for the next shift, the Management team came together and told the "NEW" owners this was a very bad idea, but the "NEW" management ( read OBAMA ADMINISTRATION) says it will be good for the company because real successful companies in manufacturing run 3 shifts! Remember the idiots that took over NEVER ran anything in their lives..... (new new guy is the exception)

Make no mistake it has nothing to do with NEED but 100% to do with perception......Funny perception never ever ever = reality when govt is involved.... They are way overstocked today, they are not near sales projections and America (and the world) are staying away from the product!!!! I know lets make a 3rd shift! That will be GREAT!!!!!! nothing behind it!

 

[aerobat]

Conspiracy Theory

Seeing how YIP linked to a report that West Coast Port traffic is up... How's this for a theory: Govt is buying trainloads of cars that are heading out to Port of Long Beach, being put on ships. Taking em out into the pacific and jettisoning the vehicles... Hey - it would make for a great movie!

 

[belchfire]

Seeing how YIP linked to a report that West Coast Port traffic is up... How's this for a theory: Govt is buying trainloads of cars that are heading out to Port of Long Beach, being put on ships. Taking em out into the pacific and jettisoning the vehicles... Hey - it would make for a great movie!

Nice...but wait, the Pacific-that's where my dad's righteous old WWII fighter ended up.

Only it was pushed overboard for a good cause...to make room for liberated servicemen coming home from the POW camps in Japan!

 

[Lear70]

Cargo *ALWAYS* leads the aviation sector when the cycle starts its upward trend. Has for the last 60 or so years that I've seen data for.

The downside: the government-run plants will likely not use as much on-demand freight uplift to solve last-minute shortfalls in needed parts. One thing the government is good for is inventory control. Anyone who has ever been in the military will tell you that *most* things are always stockpiled and woe to the stocking grunt who forgot to order supplies before they ran out (won't happen again, can guarantee you that).

Ford production coming up (as well as others) bodes well for a modest increase in freight, however, you're going to see an up-tick in other freight movement as well, as many U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers didn't re-up their inventory last year not knowing whether the recession was going to turn into a depression. With slowly rising consumer purchases comes re-stocking and a slow ramp-up in production facilities.

Certainly not where we were 4 or 5 years ago, but better than last year, for certain. 2011 and 2012 should be good years again, barring any hiccups that scare consumers again...

The passenger sector (charter, frax, and 121) will likely be a year behind the freight in ramping up. Some VERY modest hiring in 2010 (AirTran just started calling people from the pool, probably a few interviews in Feb and Mar for April classes), and more robust hiring in late 2011 and 2012.

The curve is going to be slower in rising this time, which is a good thing. The hiring curves were starting to get way too sharp and short-lived hire right up to the day you furlough kind of thing which isn't healthy at all.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Way2Broke]

I for one and looking forward to the upturn of late 2010, early 2011!

 

[pilotyip]

hiring boom

The passenger sector (charter, frax, and 121) will likely be a year behind the freight in ramping up. Some VERY modest hiring in 2010 (AirTran just started calling people from the pool, probably a few interviews in Feb and Mar for April classes), and more robust hiring in late 2011 and 2012.

The curve is going to be slower in rising this time, which is a good thing. The hiring curves were starting to get way too sharp and short-lived hire right up to the day you furlough kind of thing which isn't healthy at all.

Good luck to everyone!

all part of the 2012 hiring boom