On demand predictions

[aerobat]

Conspiracy Theory

Seeing how YIP linked to a report that West Coast Port traffic is up... How's this for a theory: Govt is buying trainloads of cars that are heading out to Port of Long Beach, being put on ships. Taking em out into the pacific and jettisoning the vehicles... Hey - it would make for a great movie!

 

[belchfire]

Seeing how YIP linked to a report that West Coast Port traffic is up... How's this for a theory: Govt is buying trainloads of cars that are heading out to Port of Long Beach, being put on ships. Taking em out into the pacific and jettisoning the vehicles... Hey - it would make for a great movie!

Nice...but wait, the Pacific-that's where my dad's righteous old WWII fighter ended up.

Only it was pushed overboard for a good cause...to make room for liberated servicemen coming home from the POW camps in Japan!

 

[Lear70]

Cargo *ALWAYS* leads the aviation sector when the cycle starts its upward trend. Has for the last 60 or so years that I've seen data for.

The downside: the government-run plants will likely not use as much on-demand freight uplift to solve last-minute shortfalls in needed parts. One thing the government is good for is inventory control. Anyone who has ever been in the military will tell you that *most* things are always stockpiled and woe to the stocking grunt who forgot to order supplies before they ran out (won't happen again, can guarantee you that).

Ford production coming up (as well as others) bodes well for a modest increase in freight, however, you're going to see an up-tick in other freight movement as well, as many U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers didn't re-up their inventory last year not knowing whether the recession was going to turn into a depression. With slowly rising consumer purchases comes re-stocking and a slow ramp-up in production facilities.

Certainly not where we were 4 or 5 years ago, but better than last year, for certain. 2011 and 2012 should be good years again, barring any hiccups that scare consumers again...

The passenger sector (charter, frax, and 121) will likely be a year behind the freight in ramping up. Some VERY modest hiring in 2010 (AirTran just started calling people from the pool, probably a few interviews in Feb and Mar for April classes), and more robust hiring in late 2011 and 2012.

The curve is going to be slower in rising this time, which is a good thing. The hiring curves were starting to get way too sharp and short-lived hire right up to the day you furlough kind of thing which isn't healthy at all.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Way2Broke]

I for one and looking forward to the upturn of late 2010, early 2011!

 

[pilotyip]

hiring boom

The passenger sector (charter, frax, and 121) will likely be a year behind the freight in ramping up. Some VERY modest hiring in 2010 (AirTran just started calling people from the pool, probably a few interviews in Feb and Mar for April classes), and more robust hiring in late 2011 and 2012.

The curve is going to be slower in rising this time, which is a good thing. The hiring curves were starting to get way too sharp and short-lived hire right up to the day you furlough kind of thing which isn't healthy at all.

Good luck to everyone!

all part of the 2012 hiring boom